JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 2/11/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 2/11/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:02

Good afternoon, folks!

12:04

Thanks for stopping by another edition of my Tuesday chats. Happy Pitchers and Catchers report day to you all. The Cubs' official report date was on Sunday, today it's that of the Dodgers, and the rest are either Wednesday or Thursday, per MLB.com. https://www.mlb.com/news/spring-training-2025-workout-dates-media-days

12:05

Speaking of the Dodgers, my writeup of the return of Enrique Hernández just went live https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-stuff-postseason-hero-enrique-hern...

12:06

and now, on with the show...

Dan Sanchez

12:07

Wondering if Pivetta settles for a 2-year deal with a discounted salary in 2025 to account for the lost draft pick. Does 2/35 ($15M in 2025, $20M in 2026) seem realistic? Tough to see more of a robust market for him than that.

Jay Jaffe

12:09

My guess is that he won't get that kind of money at this juncture, at least fully guaranteed. Maybe a frontloaded deal with a player option that lowers the AAV and lets him bet on returning to the market without a QO. Or maybe something more incentive driven. He's in a tough spot.

12:10

I should point out that the P&C report day for each team marks the start of the 60-day injured list clock, so some deals won't become official until teams clear spots on the 40-man roster. I expect, for example, that we could hear a Clayton Kershaw signing as soon as today.

Eamus Catuli

12:12

How do you view the risk / reward for the Cubs signing Bregman? He's getting older and has some red flags, but obviously seems risky to expect Shaw to be good out of the gate. In a year you're trying to make the most out of Tucker, is Bregman a player you'd push in for?

Jay Jaffe

12:15

From the standpoint of 2025, it would be an interesting fit, particularly because those are maybe a couple of big marginal wins to add in a tight division, but Shaw is their top prospect, and while they could probably find work for him all around the infield, Eric Longenhagen believes he has a high ceiling at third.

My gut tells me the Cubs are so risk- and cost-averse that they're not Bregman's likely landing spot.

ATL

12:16

What do you expect from the Braves offense as a whole in 2025? Couldn't stop hitting in 2023 and couldn't start hitting in 2024. Just expect a middle ground and call it a day?

Jay Jaffe

12:18

It all comes down to health. The main reason they didn't hit in 2024 was the long absences of Acuña, Riley, Albies, and Harris. Keep those guys around and they'll be better.

drplantwrench

12:18

good afternoon?! you mean good morning

Jay Jaffe

12:19

I'm in Brooklyn, where it's literally after noon. Didn't think I really needed to add that caveat, but there you go.

>this guy<

12:19

Jay I am pretty fascinated by Giancarlo Stanton's hof outlook. In decline so low war total (bad), could probably get 500 HR (good), DH only now (bad), post season hero (good), low BA (bad), might still be on a NYY WS winner (good) etc etc. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe

12:19

My hunch is that if he gets to 500 homers, he'll get in, with the postseason, MVP, and Statcast heroics helping to counteract the modest WAR.

drplantwrench

12:20

angels signed kenley jansen, capping off a historic run of extremely marginal but sorta smart moves this off-season. they have added a lot of projected fWAR, but i still feel skeptical. do you believe in them at all?

Jay Jaffe

12:20

Hell no.

12:22

I hope they don't stink on ice — if only for the sake of Mike Trout — but there's zero reason to have confidence in the Angels' outlook at this point. For Jansen, this is a return to the comfort of California, and if he performs well, he'll be set up to be one of the top relievers available at the deadline.

Jessica

12:22

I've never ever said this, but at this point I'd take the Dodgers over the field of 29 teams to win the World Series. They have the best team and I still think they have a chip on their shoulder due to a glut of first round exits, and no one's won back-to-back since the Clinton administration, so they want to take that mantle. How confident are you that they win it all again?

Jay Jaffe

12:24

Eh, there's so much that can happen in a short series that there's no way I'd put their odds that high. I'm not even buying our Playoff Odds' 23.6% shot at winning it all. Let's not forget they had to win two elimination games against the Padres in the Division Series last year just to survive; a lot could have gone wrong and put them right alongside the Dodgers' 2021–23 teams in terms of disappointments.

Mike Ortman

12:24

Someone at MLB.com wrote a great article about Hideki Matsui having a nice HOF case. Had the best career of someone who played abroad first then here. (Not including Ichiro, better than say Darvish or Jose Abreu). As the game welcomes more and more foreign veterans, can you see the day where you support someone with a career split between two leagues?

Jay Jaffe

12:28

The thing is, it's the National Baseball Hall of Fame, which has generally been understood to mean the US (and more recently Canada), and it's based on what they did in Major League Baseball. That's why Sadaharu Oh isn't enshrined, for example. It would take the Hall redefining the rules in order to emphasize that the international careers of Matsui or Darvish should be considered.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:29

The HOFers from the 80s-90s A's dynasty are Rickey, Eck, and.....Baines and Parker. Just like we all thought.

Jay Jaffe

12:29

Doesn't help that two guys with Hall-ish numbers basically took themselves out of consideration due to PED usage.

Gold Star

12:30

When the Dodgers break camp, is Arenado on the roster?

Jay Jaffe

12:30

No, i can't see that happening.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel

12:30

Have you come up with any method for predicting ahead of time who the various Committees will pick for the HOF? Or can you only guess based on feel?

Jay Jaffe

12:31

It's mostly on feel and past voting results. Redefining the candidate pools every 5-6 years makes it tough to lean on any kind of objective methodology

ChicagoDan

12:32

Good afternoon Jay. I thoroughly enjoy your HOF analysis. Question: I just finished “Crash” by Dick Allen and am about to start “Cobra” from his fellow VC pick Dave Parker. Can you recommend any other baseball bios or autobiographies?

Jay Jaffe

12:35

Due to the demands of the job and parenting, I can't even come close to keeping up with how many good bios there are, recent or classic. It took me months to finish Rickey by Howard Bryant, but I highly recommend that. I'm loving Cobra but haven't touched it in weeks, alas. The Ty Cobb A Terrible Beauty stands out as one of the best i've read over the past decade

12:36

and there's never a bad time to read Nice Guys Finish Last (about Leo Durocher) or Veeck as in Wreck, both written with Ed Linn

Dan Sanchez

12:39

Where does David Robertson land and when?

Jay Jaffe

12:39

Maybe back to Texas? Something will happen this week when the 40-man logjams break. NL Central could use him too

12:40

(every team in the NL Central, I mean)

How long

12:42

As Effectively Wild pointed out, Stanton is a very low "active HR leader" and a lot of that is Trout missing time, Pujols and Cabrera retiring. How long do you give him to hold onto it before (probably) Judge or Trout takes him down?

Jay Jaffe

12:45

Stanton is 34 and has a 51-homer lead over the 32-year-old Trout (429-378), an 87-homer lead over Goldschmidt... and a 114-homer lead over Judge (who's also 32) with seven other players between him and Goldy. Unless Stanton is completely sidelined, I suspect he'll hold the active lead for the remainder of his career and that we'll be in the 2030s before anyone else claims the top spot.

Steve

12:47

Does Keith Hernandez get into the HOF via committee in the next decade?

Jay Jaffe

12:47

Dude can't even get on the ballot, so I wouldn't hold my breath.

Owen

12:49

Who should sign Bregman? Who *will* sign him? And how many years does he get?

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