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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –2/11/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
The Blue Jays could really use him; I'm not buying our Depth Charts projections for 3.1 WAR from Ernie Clement and company, and they're in a tightly packed division with an understandably restless fan base. Tigers and Astros wouldn't be a surprise to men, but the Red Sox would.
G4
12:53
Taking a reasonable profit margin (largely guesswork I know) and relative competitive gains into consideration, which 3 teams should be spending far more on payroll in 2025 than they are. The Mariners and Cubs spring to my mind, but I'd like to hear your take.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:55
I agree with you on the Mariners and Cubs. The Red Sox and Orioles stand out to these eyes, again given the tight bunch in the AL East. I thought the Orioles' new owner was going to spend big but they've committed more than $15 million total to one player this winter (Tyler O'Neill) and said owner is beating the drum for a salary cap, so... meh.
Risk/reward
12:56
In your esteemed (I say that without sarcasm) HOF view, what is a "better" player? Let's say the two have the same JAWS at, I dunno, 55 or 60 depending on position, so they're both "in." A guy who had 3-4 "holy s***" seasons and was otherwise just kind of good, or a guy who just went out there and 5-WAR'd a lot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
my answer is right there in the way JAWS is formulated: what are the two players' seven-year peaks? I think that number of years not only accounts for the holy-shit seasons but also a reasonable floor for  a player's very good ones.
...
12:58
One beverage to represent each division:
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Oh boy, this is a challenge.
1:00
AL East deserves a good beer even if it's only a rather obvious one. Let's go with Brooklyn Lager.

AL West is down from its peak right now, as is Stone Brewing, so let's say Stone IPA.
1:03
AL Central: polluted water from the Ohio River

NL East: more hit or miss than the AL East, maybe Dogfish Head 60-Minute IPA.

NL West: high floor outside of Colorado. Sounds like Sierra Nevada Pale Ale. to men.

NL Central: mopwater from a Wendy's after closing time.
drplantwrench
1:04
should the Angels get more credit for spending money and making moves in the context of a lot of other non-dodger teams just standing pat?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
That's fair, but the talent deficit between them and the Astros/Rangers/Mariners is a big one so they still have a ways to go OR need to get lucky with something like full seasons from Trout and Anthony Rendon. Stop laughing, that's exactly why they're in such a hole!
Jeff
1:05
How are your digits?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
Healing... If you follow me on Bluesky you know that I had a little mishap with the slicing disc of my Cuisinart on Sunday while preparing to host 15 people.
Two hours of bleeding out of my left index finger, I conceded it was time to go to urgent care, and got two stitches. https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3lhrdrabj6c2m
1:07
not the first time I've had to go to urgent care for literally two stitches in a finger on my left hand!
I've been wearing a latex or nitrile glove on my left hand to help with compression and keep it dry and clean when eating/bathing/etc. Wearing one right now, in fact.
1:08
I'm lucky i have a week to heal before heading to Salt Lake City to ski. Travel and skiing are hell on my hands.
Insert Witty Name Here
1:08
So the central divisions both are polluted waters…is that just a coincidence or is middle America baseball just trash?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
I think the words I would diplomatically use translate to "rather unpalatable"
War2d2
1:09
My kid got drafted by the Cardinals in his Little League. I’m a Cubs fan, but I am now also a coach, so I’ll have to wear a Cards hat. 2025 continues apace. <flaming-dumpster.gif>
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
Little League names can be awkward. the first year my daughter played t-ball here in Brooklyn, the coach was a big Astros fan and his son was the team's best player by more than a little. Great coach, the kind you assume will probably get to oversee his kid's development far up the latter, and he really took a shine to my daughter despite the fact that she didn't particularly have much aptitude for the sport. But the name "Astros" was kind of railroaded through, and that doesn't play well in New York these days.
Brandon
1:13
What is the likelihood Colson Montgomery breaks camp? If he plays all season, what do you think he can achieve in such a poor lineup? Where would he bat in the lineup?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
I can't see the White Sox burning a full year of service time on him given his struggles at Triple-A last year.
Dan G
1:14
Is there any scenario where a team like the Rockies could petition out of the NL West? Let's face it, they have zero chance against the juggernauts in the division. If you were the Rockies GM, what would you do differently?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
Check LinkedIn on an hourly basis.
Sam
1:15
What's the weirdest shaped career distribution you've ever seen for a HOFer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
off the top of my head, it remains amazing that Hoyt Wilhelm didn't debut until a few months before turning 30, homered in his first plate appearance later that week, and never hit another homer in a 21-year career that lasted until 15 days shy of his 50th birthday
1:20
I'm not much of a fan of Jim Kaat but (and because) he went 12 years between seasons of at least 5 bWAR, with 5.8 (0.4 of which was batting) at age 23 in 1962 and then 7.1 WAR at age 35 in 1974
Phil
1:20
Baseball book recommendation- The Pete Rose bio called Charlie Hustle that came out last year was great. Up there with the Ty Cobb book, IMO.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
Charlie Hustle: The Rise and Fall of Pete Rose, by Keith O'Brien. Heard very good things about it myself
War2d2
1:21
Similar Little League situation for me. My boy is solid, not top-tier, but made All-Stars last year. I had to put in a request to not allow certain coaches to draft him because of past issues of bullying and similar youth-sports ugliness, and despite being a Cards fan this coach is a great guy and a great fit with my boy’s temperament. So on one hand I’m happy and I think he’ll have a great season, but on the other…when I put on that hat…_it burrrrrns usssss…_
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
yup, it's awkward no doubt. At least in our league we just had generic hats with the league logo and different team colors (ours was black that year).
Laurel and JJ Hardy
1:22
Do you think that Howie Kendrick makes the ballot for 2026? Obviously not going to make the Hall but I think he did enough to at least get nominated.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
He's right on the bubble on a weak ballot. Alex Gordon, Shin-Soo Choo, Edwin Encarnacion, Nick Markakis and Kendrick all have between 33.6 and 35.5 career WAR, and Kendrick has just one All-Star appearance, no black ink, and no Gold Gloves. My gut says he gets on but i wouldn't be surprised if he is off.
Guest
1:25
All these SP pitchers have between 800-900 IP. Rank them by likelihood to end up in the HOF: Corbin Burnes, Sandy Alcantara, Framber Valdez, Max Fried, Logan Webb, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, Zac Gallen
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
too tough to do off the top of my head but some food for thought. Will ponder.
1:27
Ok folks, that's it from me today — and no chat from me next week as I'll be skiing in SLC. Thanks so much for stopping by, and do take a moment to savor the official start of the baseball season and what my wife (Emma Span) called "the six week dry-hump" of spring training.
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