JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/13/24

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Guest

2:58

Hi Jay! In France with my wife, pressing matter at hand.

Pick between these three Dynasty options if you'd be so kind:

Ben Rice
Wilyer Abreu
George Lombard Jr.

Big fan of your work, thx!

Jay Jaffe

2:58

Alas I'm ill-equipped to advise you on Dynasty options — in general, i'm not the guy to ask about any fantasy stuff — but do enjoy France!

Generally a huge fan

2:59

Do you envision a scenario where you would cast a vote for Felix Hernandez? What does that scenario look like - is it a question of deserving to be a HoFer in your eye? a vote similar to your vote for Pettitte? or voting to keep him around on the ballot for future discussion/trends/etc. (Thank you for taking the time to chat)

Jay Jaffe

3:00

I haven't really started to think too hard about next year's ballot but I can say that all else being equal I'd vote for Félix ahead of Pettitte if I had only one slot open.

Tomas

3:00

Thanks for taking the time to chat with us, Jay. Quick question: how would you rank you, your daughter and the snowman in terms of being a competent outfielder for the Padres in 2024?

Jay Jaffe

3:02

I worked my ass off on the elliptical machine before heading to Chamonix to ski with my father, and while I'm not in the best shape of my life at 54, I skied 104,000 vertical feet over six days and am in better shape than I've been in 20 years. My daughter is probably pretty playable if you don't mind her sitting down and asking about whether she can have a snack in the middle of the inning. The snowman... already is melting a bit so I'm not wild about his long-term chances

A Huge Fan

3:02

Hi Jay, I am generally huge fan of your stuff and also want to say thanks for taking the time to chat! Is Josh Sborz the most unlikely World Series-clinching pitcher in history?

Jay Jaffe

3:03

Thanks for the kind words. that's a very interesting and fun question. Offhand Sborz seems to be a pretty unlikely choice but let's see what happens when I throw this into Stathead

3:07

ok here's the list https://stathead.com/tiny/dFxq7

3:09

eyeballing it, for the most part those are high-quality relievers and the occasional double-duty pulling starter closing out clinchers. 1961 Bud Daley for the Yankees seems pretty random as he was a below-average starter, but even his 90 ERA+ for the season was better than Sborz's 81.

Snaks

3:10

What is your go-to snack to have while playing baseball? How about in the dugout?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

well, i don't really get to play anymore but my go-to snack during skiing, and one of my daughter's for playing, is the dark chocolate Kind bars.

nate

3:10

who is better morton or sale

Jay Jaffe

3:12

Two guys who both closed out recent World Series, back-to-back even (2017 and 2018). Sale's the one with the stronger career but Morton threw more innings last year than Sale has in the last four, and was very good doing so. I'd take him over Sale right now.

Kenley Jansen

3:12

Why are the Red Sox trying to trade me? And why don't the Dodgers want me back? Let Evan Phillips play the fireman role and I can rack up saves as the "closer" without stepping on anyone's toes or messing up the high leverage roles in the rest of the pen, right? I won't even cost that much since I'm a salary dump! LOVE ME, FRIEDMAN!!!!

Jay Jaffe

3:14

The Red Sox are going cheap again, eh? I think the goal for any team acquiring you would be to make Boston eat as much of that $16 million as possible. That will only happen once Boston resigns itself to doing so, but I don't see a likely fit with the Dodgers, who are already above the fourth tier CBT threshold.

All good

3:14

Do you put the cream/milk or the coffee in your cup first? Do you stir? Which direction? How about cereal, milk or cereal first?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

Milk goes in after the coffee and, uh, I think I tend to stir clockwise. I don't eat cereal these days.

Plus shoveler

3:15

Greetings from Buffalo - lower back pain has limited my shoveling skills, but I’m still a solid 60+. Snow sucks, but enjoy snowman building with the kiddo, that’s how we stay sane up here in the Great White North.

Jay Jaffe

3:17

Oh, my lower back is a risk when it comes to moving Buffalo-level snow. My days of doing that are over.

Knock on wood, our neighbors have been very neighborly when it comes to shoveling the sidewalks when it's snowed here since we moved. In turn, we've made sure to check to see if anywhere on our half of the block needs salting later in the day.

Rational Reds Fans

3:18

What do you do with Jonathan India if you're the Cincinnati Reds?

Jay Jaffe

3:19

I think eventually they trade him for pitching help, but not immediately. With so many youngsters in the lineup, it's quite possible that one might struggle and need to be sent down, in which case it's nice to have India around for the purposes of flexibility.

Richie Allen and the Ebonistics

3:19

Do you think Mr. Allen has a good shot on the ballot this fall?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

I dearly hope he makes it — I think he's the most qualified non-Negro Leagues candidate out there, but I'm not going to go so far as to be optimistic that the stars will align this time after so much heartbreak.

Mike

3:20

Currently reading Lords of the Realm by John Helyar. Do you think any owner or GM who took part in the collusion from 86-87 should have been outlawed from the Hall? Bud Selig certainly comes to mind

Jay Jaffe

3:22

I don't know about outlawed (banned) but I sure as hell wouldn't have voted for him because of his role in collusion

Bobby

3:22

Do you subscribe to the idea that the top 20 players of each position in JAWS should be hall of famers? If you do, can you get on board with the Dustin Pedroia case, and if not why?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

top 20 is a bit of a stretch. Top 10 for sure, top 15 mostly. Pedroia is a bit too far on the fringe for my tastes but I can understand why he would have his proponents.

Jack

3:25

Where do you predict Snell/Montgomery to end up?

Jay Jaffe

3:25

Angels for Snell, Rangers for Montgomery

Butts, Esquire

3:26

Jorge Soler at 3/42 - overpay, pay, underpay?

Jay Jaffe

3:27

To these eyes a bit of an overpay but not egregious. He was good enough last year to justify the deal, but 2020-22 produced a net of 0.7 WAR, which, yikes. So there's risk.

Justin

3:27

Hi Jay! Thanks so much for all your HOF analysis work this year. It was a lot of fun, as always, to follow along. Do you anticipate any new contributions to your S-JAWS series in the next month? I was recently re-reading some of those pieces from last year and they are great. Seems like you've been hinting recently at more ideas in that sphere.

Jay Jaffe

3:28

I'm going to be writing about starting pitchers and the Hall in the near future, hopefully. Not necessarily as part of the S-JAWS series immediately but I do want to pick up where i left off at some point.

Austin D.

3:28

Is there a case to be made for Gene Tenace as a hall-of-famer? Traditional stats would probably dissuade old-school voters, but his WRC+ puts him as one of the best offensive catchers ever, and he has 40+ JAWS on top of that. Not to mention arguably one of the best World Series performances of all time.

Jay Jaffe

3:29

I think his case is too esoteric — and his batting average too low — to get past the gatekeepers who make the ballots. As I wrote in The Cooperstown Casebook, a unicorn will be made commissioner of baseball before he's elected to the Hall of Fame.

Phil

3:30

Yamamoto's projections on Steamer and Zips are less "ace" and more "solid #2/awesome #3". Dodgers clearly paid ace money, so is there anything you think the projection systems are missing?

Jay Jaffe

3:33

I think you have to remember that projection systems tend to have their reservations about EVERYBODY. Nobody is going to project to look dominant right out of the gate, especially without any MLB experience under their belts. We have Yamamoto with a Depth Charts projection of 3.8 WAR where the top pitchers are at 5.0. Yet that projection is equal to that of Corbin Burnes and 0.1 ahead of Gerrit Cole. He's going to be fine.

Daniel

3:35

What sort of season do you think we're about to see from Tatis? How likely is it he returns to his 2021 batting form?

Jay Jaffe

3:36

I'm optimistic for a rebound. His problems seem to be at least partly mechanical and therefore more solvable. Esteban Rivera had a good breakdown recently (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-needs-to-get-his-legs-ba...)

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