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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/18/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to my chat! I'm running a few minutes behind here as lunch just arrived and I had a home appliance situation to tend to . Gonna need 5-10 minutes to get settled
your patience is appreciated
2:06
OK, I'm back
My piece on the Juan Soto extension offer went up earlier today https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-nationals-350-million-extension-offer-....
2:07
Yesterday, we published my piece on S-JAWS and the dearth of Hall of Fame starting pitchers from recent decades https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-incredible-shrink...
2:08
And earlier this week I had a look at the owners' CBA offer from last Saturday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-owners-latest-offer-gets-us-no-closer-...
2:10
Today is the 27th anniversary of my move from Providence to NYC, but as with that day — which also marked the death of the Replacements guitarist Bob Stinson (not to be confused with the 1970s catche) — I awoke to somber news. Dallas Good, the guitarist and singer for the Sadies, the world's best country/bluegrass/surf/garage psych band, passed away at the age of 48 or 49. I'm spinning their albums as a backdrop to today's chat.
anyway, on with the show
Mark
2:10
What % of baseball fans realize that Juan Soto is worth substantially more than $350m?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
That's a really good question. I'd imagine it's pretty low. but it depends on what level of engagement you're defining as a fan.
2:14
1%? 10%? 20%? I guess it depends where you draw the line
Jason
2:14
Why do people react so violently to baseball labor problems but not other sports? NHL lost half a season in 14 and the NBA lost a handful in 11. I didn't see sports writers telling fans to stop watching those sports during that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
probably because baseball still proclaims itself as the national pastime, and therefore there's some (mistaken) sense that the players are therefore obligated to present it to us regardless of the circumstances
"They're playing a kids' game! It's as American as apple pie! Why are they striking? How come they hate America?"
Travis
2:18
Getting away from the current baseball landscape (or lack thereof) and looking forward to next year's HoF ballot, who are some candidates that you'll be considering/taking a closer look at for your ballot that you hadn't in the past, now that there is a bit more breathing room?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
the big name coming for next year's ballot is Carlos Beltrán, and while I fully support his candidacy on a statistical basis, I'm not yet sure how I will approach it knowing what I know about his place within the Astros' illegal sign-stealing scheme. From among the holdovers, I'm going to give a bit more thought to Mark Buehrle and Andy Pettitte in light of the work I've been doing on S-JAWS and starting pitchers in the Hall.
In There Like Fred Astaire's Swimwear
2:20
Which of these 30-somethinghitters fresh off of a surprisingly good year do you think makes the HOF: Jose Altuve, Paul Goldschmidt, Sal Perez, Nelson Cruz, Freddie Freeman, or Joey Vottoe?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
Votto and maybe Freeman, and Goldschmidt. Maybe Altuve. Not Cruz given his PED suspension. Not Perez given his horrible OBPs and framing numbers.
DrT
2:24
Good Friday, Jay    Any possibility highly underrated [yet statistically supported] Kevin Brown gets in on the Today's Game ERA ballot?  Not in Bonds, Clemens et are included this December, but what if they are not eg can they be voted on twice in same year?]  Thanks for all your great work on HOF
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
I think a logjam via which none of those guys are elected is most likely. I've come around to the idea of Brown being statistically worthy (more on him soon) but it's easy to forget that he was named in the Mitchell Report, and that it's still a rarity for a candidate who failed to poll 5% to even get on an Era Committee ballot, let alone one that's going to be particularly crowded with managerial candidates as well.
2:27
I also don't think it's a given yet that Bonds and Clemens will be on there, that it's possible the Hall will throw a rules change into the mix; they've put their thumbs on the scale regarding these guys in the past, though you'd think they'd have acted by now on this given that the 2020 Era Committee postponement made this back-to-back situation into a likelihood.
RH
2:27
Missoula's ballpark is 287 down the right field line and 304 down the left field line and it's at altitude. If Joey Gallo joins the Paddleheads during the lockout how many homers can he get?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:28
Might i suggest you pitch this one to Mike Petriello sometime? He's got the Statcast data where he could do a better job of it than I could. I'll just say "bajillion" and you're free to take the over or under as you see fit.
Juan Uribe Lifer
2:28
Friend of mine (@ydoright on twitter for anyone interested) created a database of estimated statcast stats for minor leaguers using MLB correlations between counting stats (ISO, SLG, FB%, etc.) and MLB statcast stats. Do you think there is practicality to this? Some of the R^2 values ran up into the .85-.9 range for barrel%, MaxEV, etc.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
that could be interesting.
Jesse
2:30
With the Soto extention talks picking up, What do you think a contract for Vlad Jr look like? Would the Jays be worried about him breaking down earlier (Like Pujols or Miggy)? Plus if the Jays extend one of Bo or Vlad the other one would probably be upset no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
right now I think you're looking in the $200-300 million range; he had a stellar 2021, obviously, but his track record of elite play is shorter than that of Soto, and the defense/DH/physical questions loom larger at the moment.
2:33
As for how that will play out if they look at extending both Vladito and Bichette, I'd expect the former will be dealt with first, as he's a Super Two who's arb-eligible this year whereas the latter isn't arb-eligible until next year.
Guest
2:34
I live in a town with a Double-A affiliate, I can walk to and see games very cheaply.  As a new fan of the sport, do you think it'd be more fun for me to adopt their major league affiliate (on the opposite coast) and follow/ root from a largely development perspective, or instead devote myself to the nearest MLB team, who are ~ 2.5 hours away and I'd be able to see live maybe once a year
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
As a newcomer, you should be able to try both on for size to see if either of them fit. If you're an East Coast person who stays up late to watch West Coast games, that's helpful, but if it's working the other way that could be tougher.
Tim
2:38
Hi jay. Do you think coaches will ever be on the Hall eligibility list?  Seems if they can put in umpires, they should also consider coaches. Crosetti Lau Mazzone?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
It's pretty tough to define or effectively evaluate coaches so I am skeptical this ever becomes A Thing that includes full HOF membership. Might be more likely that we see a Frick/BBWAA Lifetime Achievement/O'Neil-type award dedicated to coaches, recognizing a few from different eras each year to catch up.
David
2:40
what is your best guess on how many games we have this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
right now I'm going with 120 to 140. We're going to lose at least a chunk of April.
Guest
2:41
Man first JT Earle now Dallas, the past couple years have not been good for the talented. I was lucky enough to see the Sadies play with JTE once and Jon Spencer another time.  So good.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
I never got to see the Sadies and Spencer together (or to see Earle). I did see the Sadies back Neko Case, Jon Langford, and Andre Williams, though — three great shows, all very different.
Devos
2:43
Have you ever been close to just not caring as much about the HOF? For me the Baines induction was like somewhere between comically nonsensical and just gross bias. As I age I find less effort to right these wrongs and just care less instead. Same with getting worked up about ASG, MVP votes, etc.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
Not caring entirely? I'm certainly nowhere near that, but I kind of let go when it came to Bonds and Clemens this year. They were on my ballot, but with no expectation that they would make 75%, I didn't spend an ounce of energy trying to change anybody's mind.
Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer
2:45
I noticed that ZIPS' career projection for Juan Soto has a lower OPS+ than Dick Allen! ended.  Soto is my favorite player to watch btw.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
Dick Allen was one of the elite hitters in major league history. It is a damn crime that he's not in the Hall of Fame.
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