JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/18/22

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joe

2:45

Do you think the $/War framework often talked about makes sense?

Jay Jaffe

2:46

It's a useful starting point when thinking about money and performance. It is not the be-all and end-all of evaluation, and it can be misused.

2:51

On the one hand, we talk about what Soto projects to do and what an appropriate contract would look like. On the other, we're squeamish at the notion that WAR could be used to determine which players get pre-arb bonuses out of a pool — in part, at least, because we know that the metric is an estimate whose precision is open to question, particularly in areas such as defense. The idea that Soto might produce 50 WAR over the next decade and that teams should back up the Brinks truck if he hits free agency is one thing; the broad strokes tell us he's an historically elite hitter. The idea that two players might be .1 WAR apart but one gets the bonus and the other doesn't, because one defensive metric is favored over another, or some other very minor aspect causes that, I don't think anybody who deals in WAR has the stomach for that.

Lars

2:51

Have any former players ever reached out to you for your personal take on their eligibility?

Jay Jaffe

2:51

Not seriously, no.

Jesse

2:51

As a newbie who is starting to get into baseball content creation (Great timing i know) what advice would you give them?

Jay Jaffe

2:55

Don't refer to it as content, because that devalues it and designates it as disposable. If you're writing, call it writing (analysis, journalism, history, whatever), if you're doing video or podcasting, call it what it is.

As to how to catch a break in this landscape, I don't f'ng know anymore, but the model by which I came up, blogging independently as a hobby, writing my way into a position where a career switch was possible, and taking a few more years to get to the point where it was truly viable — i don't recommend that and don't think one could even pull it off anymore.

Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer

2:55

Did you ever see Jon Spencer in Providence. I saw Sh!thaus.

Jay Jaffe

2:57

oh wow. I never saw Shithaus but heard of their legend. The first time I saw Spencer was at Club Babyhead in June 1993, opening for Come. They... blew Come off the stage? Phenomenal show. I bought Extra Width the next day as did many of my friends.

2:58

https://vassifer.blogs.com/alexinnyc/2021/05/back-to-the-shith%C3%A4us...

2:59

That is one unholy racket!

Sirras

2:59

How, if at all, do you think Hall voters will account for the peculiarities of this era in terms of shortened season(s), games missed for illness, etc?

Jay Jaffe

3:03

As with the players who came up through the PED era and dealt with the strike, I think some of it will come down to a case-by-case basis. Missed milestones may count for something in hindsight (Baines very possibly getting to 3,000 hits if not for 1981 and '94-95 was a big selling point for the Era Committee and I'd expect the same for McGriff and 500 homers). But I also think that some of it will be part of the coming reckoning with regards to starting pitching, the expectation of lower totals and comparatively shorter careers as we see the 250-inning workhorse model fall by the wayside.

GBS42

3:03

For Hall of Fame voting, a blank ballot would countt he denominator what percentagebut an unreturned ballot would not come correct?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

A blank ballot counts as part of the denominator, an unreturned one is an uncounted one.

Moe

3:04

I can never seem to find a satisfactory answer to the difference between command and control. Can you assist?

Jay Jaffe

3:05

The way it was always explained to me is that control is throwing strikes, command is throwing good strikes. It's the difference between getting the ball to the plate and putting it in spots where the hitter can't do the most damage.

Rocky Mountain High

3:05

What happens first, another player makes the HOF wearing a Rockies cap, or the Rockies move to another city?

Jay Jaffe

3:07

Todd Helton will be elected before his eligibility runs out and I don't see the Rockies moving. Their ownership is utter trash, and the logistics of playing at altitude aren't easy to surmount, but they have a great ballpark and are generally in the upper half in attendance.

Dick Allen is a Hall of Famer

3:08

Sh!thaus was like Neubauten wannabes (not a shot I love Neubauten) If I ever find the tape I bought at that show I'll make you a copy

Jay Jaffe

3:08

I would love that!

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:08

(Ridiculous hypothetical incoming). The year is 2035. Mike Matheny just led the Royals to an unprecedented 4th straight world series appearance. Is that enough to elect him to the HOF and as a player/manager?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

in this completely improbable universe, he would be elected as a manager.

Frankie

3:08

Do you think fewer catchers make the hall going forward, given the value placed on defense and a trend of a more even split of playing time?

Jay Jaffe

3:09

We've got Mauer, Posey, and Molina on tap, maybe some overdue attention to Munson and Freehan — and then who knows what the hell happens if we get robot umps.

3:10

so i don't see us getting fewer catchers in the near future. In the longer run, i don't think anybody knows.

Appa Yip Yip

3:10

If you were taking BP in front of scouts do you think you'd manage to get a 20 power grade?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

at age 52, with lousy eyesight, a bad right shoulder and a balky back? I would worry the scout would die laughing before assigning me a grade

Guest

3:11

Blues Explosion (!!) would blow just about everyone off the stage. One of my go to videos is a performance on Australian TV show Recovery the last couple minutes are gold:

Jay Jaffe

3:12

If I've seen this I've forgotten about it!

3:13

And here's a little taste of the Sadies. Dallas Good, the one who just passed, is on the microphone as well as guitar

Vermonty

3:14

Yankees will trade which if these: Voit, Sanchez, Hicks, Britton, Chapman?

Jay Jaffe

3:18

Britton had Tommy John surgery in September so I don't see him getting traded unless it's for bookkeeping purposes. Voit seems more likely to be dealt than Sanchez because there just isn't much out there for catching. I don't see Chapman getting traded, and Hicks not unless they come up with a legitimate center fielder.

section 34

3:18

Jay, all of the coverage of the CBA negotiations I have seen has not touched on the issue of competitive balance. Can you say how the current proposal on the table would affect competitive balance? This is an overlooked issue by many analysts but not by fans of teams that aren't the big spenders. Thank you.

Jay Jaffe

3:21

There's talk of the two sides agreeing to a draft lottery but I don't think much in the way of specifics has made it out there, so it's tough to analyze. That seems to be the extent of anti-tanking measures that are in play. The league presents the CBT as being for the sake of competitive balance but <broad gesture at the last five years> that sure as hell doesn't seem to have done anything to prevent tanking.

Evaszomjas

3:22

Why is Luis Aparicio in the Hall but Bert Campaneris is not? Seems like their careers were pretty similar.

Jay Jaffe

3:25

they're 22nd and 20th in JAWS, respectively. I think Aparicio got more attention as an early Latin American star and as the top base stealer of his time (he led the league in each of his first 9 seasons while stealing at an 81% clip) whereas Campy got kind of lost when it came to considering those star-studded A's teams. He's a bit low in JAWS for my tastes but it would hardly be an outrage if he were in.

3:26

I don't see myself as leading the Campy Marching and Chowder Society, to paraphrase Vin Scully.

Josie

3:26

What do you think the Yankees do at SS?

Jay Jaffe

3:26

is Bert Campaneris available?

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