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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/18/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
My hunch is that they'll go for a stopgap and wait for Volpe, though it wouldn't surprise me if they land Trevor Story and move him over once Volpe arrives
I don't think they'll be players for Correa
Mike
3:28
Does the new proposed CBT make Cohen suddenly alter course and stop spending or does he start tweeting about it hoping to get his way?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
Let's see where it ends up, but I I think he's probably going to be stuck with the Mets being repeat offenders in 2022 and '23. Roster Resource estimates them at $277M for this year and already at $191M for next year
BettsBellingerCaruso
3:31
Should MLB do a light "halftime show" kind of a thing for the World Series during the 7th inning stretch?

That tribute to LA during the SB Halftime Show was just so good as a millennial who grew up in LA

Jay Z & Alicia Keys doin "Empire State of Mind" in 2009 WS was really cool, I want to see something like that for every city in the WS (though I think only LA, NYC, Atlanta and maybe H-town can pull this kind of thing off)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
I don't see it happening in mid-game. I was there for the Jay-Z/Keys thing, which was before Game 2 of the World Series (Pedro Martinez's good start in that series), and that was cool; interrupting play with a 15-minute interlude would not be.
Farhandrew Zaidman
3:32
Trevor May recently on the Chris Rose Rotation described Juan Soto as having Tony Gwynn-type bat to ball skills with Albert Pujols-type production. If we were to fuse together Tony Gwynn and Albert Pujols, there's an argument that the resultant player is the best hitter of all time, no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
at the very least, you'd be talking Ruth/Bonds/Williams/Trout country.
Andrew
3:34
Hi Jay - to what degree do you think the sign-stealing stuff will be held against guys like Altuve and Correa as their careers are assessed (in HOF consideration, etc)? How much difference do you think it made on their actual production? Is it fair to say that the data (home/road splits, pre- and post-2017 numbers, etc) seem to indicate that the scheme had little impact on production? And while their scheme was overt and perhaps particularly egregious, everyone would acknowledge that they weren't the only team using "technology" for sign-stealing, right? Taken together, what is a fair way to assess these guys? Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
I think we'll know at least a bit more about how they'll be regarded when we see how Beltrán is handled. It may not be a factor for Altuve given that he's said to have eschewed the system (though it's still worth noting that he could have stood up for cutting it out instead of not going along with it). With Correa, well, he's about to start writing the next chapter of his career in some city besides Houston, and I'm guessing that will weigh heavily
3:38
As for the performance stuff, I don't know that it had a huge difference based on the numbers but it certainly could have swung the outcome of the World Series, and so I think it's much harder to give those guys particular credit for that accomplishment.
Old Professor
3:39
Love your chats, Jay, and your incredibly in-depth analyses of the HOF. Have to say I'm okay with losing a lot of April games. I have had Cubs season tickets since 2015 (how's that for timing?), and now that they're mediocre I was expecting having a hard time selling tickets to the numerous April games I wouldn't be going to. Wrigley is often miserably cold, really well into May, due to a very chilly Lake Michigan just a few blocks away.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
April games at Yankee Stadium are an endurance test, too.
3:41
(and thank you for the kind words)
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
3:41
For the new AA fan, rooting for an out-of-market team means the ability to watch them on MLB.TV, which is huge. It's really cool to look back at old scorebooks or pictures when you saw big leaguers in the minors. And following players also means cheering for people instead of laundry, which is also nice.
WinTwins0410
3:42
Jay, on the 1994 BBWAA ballot, Vida Blue (who I think everyone agrees is pretty clearly not a Hall of Famer) got 3.1% of the vote but was not five-percented off.  He wound up the following year on the BBWAA's 1995 ballot (where he got 5.7%, so above 5%) and then he weirdly disappeared from writers' ballots after that even though he got over 5% in 1995.  Were you aware of this weird quirk of the BBWAA's vote?  And either way, Vida has given multiple interviews in recent years suggesting that the drug scandals are impeding his path to the Hall (https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2021/08/17/vida-blue-cocaine-hal...).  Do you think that's even remotely the case?  (I don't.)  I'd love your take on why you think he got so little BBWAA support.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:46
I'm not sure what happened with Blue on the 1994 ballot, TBH. Will have to look into that. As for his drug rap impeding his path, color me skeptical. He landed on the ballot in an era where Hall of Fame voters were electing only pitchers with 300 wins in the 20 years between the elections of Fergie Jenkins in 1991 and Bert Blyelven in 2011. Between that, his modest 108 ERA+ and 45.1 WAR, I don't see a very strong case
DrT
3:46
Re- K. Brown, D. Allen   Why isn't Lou Whitaker in the HOF??
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:48
Because the voters who 5%'d him were idiots, and because he had no single signature skill that made him stand out; he was merely a very damn good and consistent all-around player for a very long time
cpins
3:48
Do owners owe players pay for missed games under a lockout? I know they do not if it were a strike.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:48
no, I don't think so.
cpins
3:48
Jon Langford! Mekons rule - let me on stage to sing off key though I'm pretty sure the sound guy slid the fader to zero on my mic!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:49
whoa! wow, that's awesome. I have a bunch of Langford's paintings in addition to just about a complete collection of his albums
3:50
3:51
and this seems an appropriate non-baseball note to end things, Langford's painting of the band for their Pure Diamond Gold album:
3:53
WinTwins0410
3:53
Related to Vida Blue's complaints, I have a question about Omar Vizquel.  Do you see a scenario where his BBWAA vote totals *don't* fall below 5% but the Hall pulls Vizquel from the ballot anyhow, just due to his bad behavior?  I don't think there's a precedent for that (and I don't think that's what the Hall did to Vida), but....could you see the Hall stepping in and concluding that Omar's behavior was so awful (maybe after a ban from baseball) that they just yank him from the ballot before his 10 years are up?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:53
I don't see that happening.
3:54
anyway, I'm out of time, thanks for stopping by this week! We'll do this again soon. In the meantime, stay safe.
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