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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/19/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, and welcome to another edition of my Friday FanGraphs chat. That's four in a row, my longest streak in quite some time!
2:02
Today I've got a fun piece that grapples with the possibility that Fernando Tatis Jr. has already shown us enough to suggest he could wind up in the Hall of Fame — an article that's confusing the hell out of people for whom binary answers are the only answers. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fernando-tatis-jr-has-a-clear-shot-at-coop...
2:03
As I write this, i'm listening to the first edition of Kevin Goldstein's new podcast. I don't generally get to listen to podcasts because it's very hard to think of words when somebody is speaking words in my general direction, but I'm excited to hear what KG and co-host David Roth are up to  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chin-music-episode-1-the-regal-beagle/
Word of warning: if you have a question about prospects, all I'm going to be able to do is point you to articles about prospects. I'm not Eric Longenhagen
And with that, on with the show...
MM
2:04
Hey Jay!  Do you think the Tatis signing will affect negotiations between the Dodgers and their shortstop Corey Seager?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:05
I don't think the Dodgers are about to go into instant reaction mode just because the Padres handed out a big extension, and given that Seager is a Scott Boras client, I don't think it's at all likely that he'll sign without testing free agency first.
Moonlight Graham
2:07
Enjoyed your Tatis Hall of fame article. Which sub 23 player do you think after Soto, Acuna, and Tatis has the best shot / clearest path at the hall right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:13
Good question. There's nobody who's anywhere close to that obvious, because at this point age is everything, and you've got guys like Luis Robert, and Bo Bichette who have demonstrated clear ability but are or will be 23 this season versus guys playing at 21 or 22 who haven't quite gotten it down yet. Vlad Jr., who turns 22 next month, might be the best bet among those with MLB experience, but already there are enough concerns about his body and his defense that he's got nowhere near the odds that Tatis and the other guys you mention have. A better bet would probably be on überprospect Wander Franco, who's about to turn 20, and who figures to get substantial playing time by the end of his age 21 season.
Grand Admiral Braun
2:13
Kris Bryant O/U: 125 wRC+ in 2021
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
I'll take the over on that. Guy has a 137 career wRC+ and only the most recent 147-PA slice below 126
jmarsh123
2:14
Given his new contract, do you think that Tatis Jr is ever capable of hitting 2 grand slams in the same inning or does the financial security make him lazy?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
His genetics tell us that if anybody is going to hit three grand slams in one inning, it's this guy
Nick
2:17
Which team most needs to sign Jake Odorizzi?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
The Cubs, if they're not going to continue to rip apart their roster at the seams. They project for 79.2 wins in a division where the leader projects for 81.8 (Brewers), and Odorizzi, who projects to produce 2.0 WAR, would more than cut that gap in half based on the projections for Mills, Arrieta, and Trevor Williams.
Brad NJ
2:20
thoughts on my favorite sleeper prospect Jeferson Espinal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
Yes! My thought is that I'm not the guy you should ask, and that Eric or Kevin is a much better choice for that kind of question
Jeff
2:21
Do you have any guesses on why James Shields and Cole Hamels saw their velocity climb so much in the early 30s?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
Velocity increases most often owe to better mechanics/more efficient deliveries
Nick
2:22
Do the Padres' moves the last couple years make us view the Eric Hosmer contract more charitably?  It may have been an overpay, but it obviously isn't an albatross that is restricting the team's ability to make expensive free agent signings (Machado), take on salary in trades (Darvish), or extend their best players (Tatis).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:24
I mean, it's still a horrible-looking contract; through three years, the guy has netted 0.4 WAR, and his next 1-win season will be his first for the Padres. What it does tell us is that yes, this ownership isn't using that as an excuse to continue spending money — and to spend it more wisely on younger, higher-upside talent.
Guest
2:24
You had a lot of thoughts on Almora to the Mets, so what are your thoughts on Pillar? Since Almora was cheap and has options, does Pillar make at least a bit of sense as a righty who hits better and is better than Nimmo (if not stellar at this point) in CF? With Almora potentially AAA depth?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
As a platoon complement, yes, he makes some sense, but his defensive metrics in center have fallen off (-14 DRS in ~2500 innings over past 3 years) to the point of concern, he's a guy with a career 87 wRC+ whose only season above 100 was last year's abbreviated one, and between his homophobic slur from a few years ago and his All Lives Matter bullshit from this past summer, he comes off as a heel. As a response to the corner in which they'd painted themselves, it's probably the right next move, but I think they could have done significantly better.

Which isn't to say that they've had a bad winter on the whole. The Lindor/Carrasco acquisition is excellent for their needs, and I like the Taijuan Walker signing, which i'll cover here for Monday.
MB
2:29
Hello! Any update on whether there will be Pace data for pitchers in 2020?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
I don't have an update, sorry. I've asked, but clearly there's a massive coverup that goes all the way to the top.

As we get the data from the Pitch Info folks, it's their tree you should probably be shaking http://www.pitchinfo.com/
Jack Is Puzzled
2:31
Walker has barely pitched over the past three seasons and is a prime candidate for significant regression next season. I can’t understand why the Mets focused on him over Odorizzi, is there something I’m missing? He’s younger but seems like an overpay for a high-risk, mediocre-reward sort of move.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
I think it makes more sense to regard Walker's 2020 season as a work-in-progress after missing most of 2 years. I mean, it's Odorizzi who was limited to 4 starts by injuries last year. Walker may not post a 2.70 ERA next year, but the bet is that he can do better than a 4.60 FIP.

Until we know what Odorizzi signs for, it's tough to get a full evaluation but I suspect based on what we've heard that the money and structure that Walker signed for wasn't enough for Odorizzi.
Jeff
2:37
Jay, what if I told you that Kris Bryant also Aged during those 147 PAs? He's 29 ffs not a pup
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
29? My god, it's time to take him behind the barn and end things.
45 blows billygoats
2:37
I'm seeing a lot of knee jerk reactions to the Arenado move now considering his home/away splits. Given the ball going back to normal, shouldn't he fall even more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
The post-Coors success of hitters as varied as Matt Holliday and DJ LeMahieu should serve to remind that one can't simply assume that the road stats of a Rockies player are an accurate measurement of what he'll do after changing teams. Arenado's not going to put up the same numbers in STL as he would have in COL, but that doesn't mean he's gonna be mediocre.
MM
2:41
More likely HOFer:  Machado or Harper?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
Manny. He's got about a 6-bWAR advantage through their age-27 seasons because he plays a skill position well, and it's reasonable to see him continuing to do so
Guest
2:44
Thoughts on my favorite sleeper band, Jefferson Airplane?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
Love 'em. When I was in high school, i taped the entire 2-CD anthology, 2400 Fulton Street, off the radio, and they've remained one of my favorites from that era.
Speaking of Hos...
2:46
% chance that Hosmer gets to 3,000 hits? If he does, and Pads win maybe a series, there any chance that somehow the Padres have three HoF infielders right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
LOL
2:49
Hosmer's got a career batting average of .278, and 1,492 hits through age-31, which is to say that he's not even halfway there. The only two players with 3,000 and career batting averages under .280 are Cal Ripken, an elite defender at shortstop, and Rickey Henderson, who put up a .401 OBP for over 13,000 PA (Hosmer's at .336). In other words, he lacks the things that will keep him around once his offense takes an even further turn downward
Drew
2:49
Any idea as of when they are going to announce who the new writers are at the site?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I have no insight into the progress of our search other than to suggest "sometime in the future" which probably isn't a helpful answer. Sorry.
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