JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/19/21

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Grand Admiral Braun

2:50

Any thoughts to the Cubs' 87-88 mph rotation?

Jay Jaffe

2:51

It'll work out fine if you're Kyle Hendricks. If you're not Kyle Hendricks, it probably won't work fine.

Process

2:51

As a Hall of Fame voter, you'll presumably be casting ballots for the foreseeable future. Each year, its possible to see writers changing their minds from "no" to "yes" and vice versa for varying reasons. Based upon your virtual ballots/knowledge of your thought processes/etc., what kinds of criteria and circumstances do you foresee that would make you change your thinking on candidates? (Either to "no" or to "yes", and not thinking/asking about anyone specific)

Jay Jaffe

2:56

My thinking doesn't change all that often except in terms of prioritizing a guy in the context of ballot space concerns. The walking shitshow that is **** ********* aside, my biggest reversal, I think, has been on Sheffield, and that has mostly had to do with exactly that, ballot space; I didn't include him on any of my virtuals from 2014-19, but added him last year and still had room for him on my actual ballot this year. I decided that the certainty we have of him as an elite hitter matters more than the uncertainty we have over exactly how bad he was defensively. and the fact that he wasn't always in a situation where a manager had the option to DH him.

Joe

2:57

What are your thoughts are the current depth charts team war projections: Yankees, Dodgers, Gap, Padres, Blue Jays ?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

The Mets and Braves should be ahead of the Blue Jays (they are in our projections) and there are few other teams about as good as Toronto is, including the White Sox and Twins.

Question Marks

2:59

Of the injury question marks (so, not the "quality" question marks like German, Garcia, etc), which of Taillon, Kluber, and (eventually) Severino do you think has the best chance of being able to provide, oh, 30-40 good October innings for NYY (since we all know that's what they really want)?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

Throwing a dart, I'll say Taillon, who's further removed from his TJ than Sevy (August 2019 vs. February 2020)

Guest

3:01

Who would you take for the first six (i.e., team-controlled) years of his career: Ian Anderson, Sixto Sanchez, or Tristan McKenzie?

Jay Jaffe

3:03

Anderson, so long as he doesn't whip out a flute and start hopping up and down on one leg. Was VERY impressed by what I saw of him late in the year, stuff as well as poise. Sixto didn't miss enough bats for my taste though it's worth noting that the 2020 projections like him significantly more than the other two.

Jeff

3:03

Thoughts on the Cubs, in the eyes of the fanbase, going from too old and expensive to too young and cheap? Will the porridge ever be right for this really cool fanbase that embraced Lovable Losers?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

I don't think one can fault the fanbase for the way ownership is handling this situation

Dial

3:04

IIRC, you used to project Bonds to make it on his last ballot. Given the way the HOF vote went, does he make it? Did the "empty year" help him?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

the last time I projected Bonds and Clemens making it in their 10th year was two years ago, but in that time, they've gained 2.7% and 2.1% respectively, which is to say that they've basically been stopped in their tracks. It's now clear to me that there aren't enough voters changing their minds for them to be elected by the writers, particularly as character issues continue to occupy a larger share of the discussion

Mike - Toronto, ON

3:08

Do you think if Delgado played the majority of his career for a US-based team he gets more HOF love? He's pretty clearly deserving of a longer look than he got.

Jay Jaffe

3:11

I don't think playing in Toronto itself was the hindrance, it was the crowd on the ballot circa 2015 (16 guys with 50 JAWS or higher) and perhaps to a lesser extent the fact that he only made the playoffs once — which I guess you can pin on the Blue Jays for undergoing a drought but I think the outcome wouldn't have been much different if he'd spent those years in Pittsburgh or Kansas City

RichCampbellPhD

3:13

Chapman, Judge, Story born within 365 days of each other. Each with 20-21 bWAR. Which has best HOF shot?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

Judge is a year older in terms of "baseball age" (he's heading into his age-29 season, the others into age-28) and has had a very hard time staying on the field. Coin toss between the other two, really

jmarsh123

3:15

More serious question. If Tatis does indeed meet his highest projection how high on the list of bad trades does Shields-Tatis climb?

Jay Jaffe

3:16

higher than Bagwell-Anderson, to say nothing of Brock-Broglio

Dee Arby

3:16

How’s fatherhood treating you? I’m also going to be an older papa, curious to see how you’re holding up?

Jay Jaffe

3:17

I love being a father! It's everything I'd hoped and more (I did not imagine I'd be buying so much Lego so soon!) but the added strain of navigating care of a young child during a pandemic has taken years off my life.

and the act of reading a book from start to finish is a fantasy unto itself

robertobeers

3:17

Is Buster Posey a HoFer?

Jay Jaffe

3:19

I'd vote for him if he never played another inning, but I doubt that most voters would agree. The fact that he's so far from the magic 2,000 hit line (1380) heading into the final guaranteed year of his contract has me concerned. I'm hoping he has a great season

Mike Ortman

3:19

Reading a Felix Hernandez comment in an article yesterday, he said his goal is the Hall of Fame, and he acknowledged that his numbers need some help. Has anyone representing a player ever consulted with you on their player’s HOF outlook?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

I contributed a few thoughts to that article by Dan Connolly https://theathletic.com/2397728/2021/02/18/an-entertaining-felix-herna.... But no, nobody connected to a player has ever asked me about such matters.

Guest

3:20

If you're a fan, you've probably heard the White Rabbit isolated vocals- but if not, it's a treat:

Jay Jaffe

3:21

haven't heard this, thanks!

3:21

Hey Jay, Don Drysdale or Rick Reuschel?

Jay Jaffe

3:21

Drysdale. My god, he must have been terrifying to face.

Moonlight Graham

3:22

Will we ever see more incredible defenders sub par batters get into the hall? Vizquel's case looked stalled before his off field issues re-emerged. Andrelton has an interesting case, but it feels the hall won't be seeing these players again.

Jay Jaffe

3:25

Simmons' fielding numbers are off the charts. 191 runs above average via B-Ref despite playing only 133 games the past two seasons, and just 0.6 JAWS behind Vizquel in about one-third of the playing time.

Hall-wise, I mean, you're basically describing the case for Yadier Molina, who owns a 98 OPS+ for his caree, isn't likely to nose it back above 100, and will probably be elected without me including him on a ballot.

Scott

3:26

I have been harping for years at the injustice of Jethro Tull not being in the Rock HOF. So you have any sway there?

Jay Jaffe

3:27

i loathe the RRHOF. It's just a complete troll job as far as who's not in, and doesn't capture my imagination the way the baseball Hall of Fame does. . I could sit here and name 100 bands that should be in and aren't but so long as I have their albums it doesn't matter a bit to me.

Jeff

3:28

Thoughts on Marco Gonzales of the Mariners? Seems like a breakout candidate

Jay Jaffe

3:29

9.2 WAR over the past three seasons (3.8 per 180 innings). I'd say he's already broken out.

Drew

3:29

If Judge stays healthy the next two years do you see him getting a $200 million dollar deal or will his age hinder him and we'd expect something more of the Springer range (which is still really really good obviously)

Jay Jaffe

3:31

I'd say the Springer range sounds about right. I don't see $200 million unless he stays healthy enough to hit the 40+ bombs a year that he's capable of

Stu

3:33

We are definitely going to have a 3 year take-cycle about Russell Martin’s HoF candidacy, and nobody seems to realize it yet. His contemporaries with comparable WAR make it inevitable.

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