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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/19/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
we're already in year 3 if you start here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/framing-the-hall-of-fame-cases-for-martin-...
Moonlight Graham
3:33
The hall criteria feels numerically focused right now, but do players still get bumps from how amazed people were when they saw them play or iconic plays? Andruw Jones in general, but especially his spiderman catch, comes to mind.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
You're confusing Andruw and Adam Jones I think?
Guest
3:33
Are the Astros sneaky good or sneaky bad?  I cannot decide...so many unproven but talented young players (Yordan, Tucker, Framber Valdez, Urquidy) and then of course Altuve's bounce back potential and if Correa actually plays 140+ games...Just so many wildly different outcomes.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
The rotation really lacks depth. We have them 20th, with Greinke, Lance Jr. and Framber all in the ~2.8 WAR range and then meh, with Urquidy the only other guy above 1.0. Altuve's a concern, and they haven't adequately replaced Springer in center field.
Guest
3:37
I had to look up Posey's stats- I did not realize that fWAR valued his defense that highly. That led me down a rabbit hole to discovering that, if you look at accumulated defensive value from 2010-2019, the top 12 players are all catchers! Except for Andrelton Simmons, which really says something about his defense. But anyway, I'm curious- why is it that catchers are accumulating much more value than any other position? I mean, I know it's a super important position- but it just seems a bit odd to see how much they dominate that chart.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
Our defensive system includes framing runs, and Posey is elite in that area. As multiple analysts have shown, there's actually big value created there by the best framers over the course of a season, though the spread from best to worst has lessened over time as teams have caught on (pun intended) to what makes for good framing and what doesn't.
Pat
3:38
Delgado is a guy that could have really helped his HOF chances by hanging around a few years. He was still a really good hitter at age 37, got hurt & just retired. He could have used 3-4 years as a DH to get his HR total from 473 into the 525-550 range & his RBI into the 1700-1800 range. Doing it on a playoff team would have been even better,
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
Generally, retiring at age 37 doesn't bode well for election to the Hall because it means leaving major milestones on the table.
Mr. Byrnes
3:39
Do you like Elvis Costello?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:43
Yes, especially the first two albums, but I'm not as keen on him as some people are. Like, I play my Nick Lowe albums a lot more often than I play Elvis.

Very cool moment from many years ago that I was lucky to witness: Costello joining Lowe and Robyn Hitchcock on stage for a surprise acoustic encore
Jason
3:43
Sean Manaea is projected for a 4.37 FIP. His career worst was 4.26. What is the projection system seeing in him that portends a career worst season this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:44
Regression in general, and in his case some disconcerting Statcast numbers as they pertain to hard contact.
Dave
3:44
What did ya have for lunch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:48
I had what has become my staple make-at-home sandwich, tasty but not tremendously unhealthy: Boar's Head Cracked Pepper Smoked Turkey (which keeps well and doesn't get slimy), Grey Poupon, Hellman's Mayo, Muenster, sliced cucumber (which we always have on hand), Potbelly Hot Pepper Giardanera (secret ingredient), on Arnold Country White bread (which keeps well). I've made this sandwich 2-3x a week for the past year and have managed not to get sick of it — or to waste much in the way of bread or deli meat that needed to be thrown out (this is key). Sometimes I sub in Jarlsburg, sometimes leftover bacon, sometimes a schmear of guacamole if we have it.
3:49
It ain't gonna win any awards from Ted Berg or Eno Sarris when it comes to creativity, but it's promoted some healthier lunch habits than I've managed in the past.
Sam
3:49
How do you view Josh Donalson who looks good as a HOF  candidate in terms of 7 year peak but may not reach the career totals (including 2,000 hits)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:50
Almost certainly screwed unless he can remain productive until about age 39 or 40. The short year really cost him.
Sam
3:50
Have you started working on a Casebook sequel? Are you planning on a second book?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:50
I have a ton of material and ideas for Book II but haven't formalized a search to find a home for it
Being an older Dad is Awesome
3:51
Given the Walker is in and Rolen will soon be in when will Jaws and WAR be the counting stats considered for HOF instead of hits, hr, etc?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:51
I think we're still a ways off from the advanced stats completely obscuring the traditional ones. I'm very glad that they're part of so many voters' deliberations, though
3:52
on that note, it's time for me to pack up. I have some errands to run in the slush. Stay safe and warm, everyone, and let's do this again next week!
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