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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/21/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Hey folks, welcome to today's chat. It's going to be a short one, because I'm finishing up a piece on the disappearing knuckleball and have to depart for my first installment of physical therapy; last week, I was diagnosed with rotator cuff impingement syndrome, a relief since I thought I had re-torn my labrum, which I first tore in 2003. Hang tight and I'll get to the questions shortly...
12:15
OK, I'm back
Kurupt FM
12:16
Assuming equivalent salaries, who would you rather have for 10 years, Machado or Harper?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
If marketability is a primary concern, Harper is probably the choice, but the fact that Machado plays a more important defensive position, and is still a very skilled defender, probably points the needle in his direction for me.
Tucker
12:18
Is there such a thing as a rate of diminishing returns in MLB. Meaning does Machado impact San Diego projected wins or playoff odds at a greater rate than he'd impact the Yankees?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
There are basically two key factors in play: how good is the player Machado is replacing, and how many wins was the team projected for previously. Ofhand I'm not entirely sure where the point of inflection is in the two wild card era, but I think it's around 85 wins where the addition of each additional win increases a team's playoff odds much more substantially than it would otherwise, and once you get above 95 wins, each additional one doesn't change things that much. See https://tht.fangraphs.com/rethinking-the-win-curve/ for a fairly recent look.
12:23
tl;dr: yes, there's a rate of diminishing returns — a 95-win team isn't going to get the same spike in odds as an 85-win team, though given the distinction between winning the division and merely securing a wild card spot, there's still something to be said for improvement.
Roger
12:23
Which 2010 first round pick has the best chance at Cooperstown: Manny Machado, Chris Sale, or Bryce Harper?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
I'd put the position players ahead of Sale, who got a later start and as a pitcher is certainly more fragile and vulnerable to a career-changing injury.
Lou
12:25
Why is the knuckleball disappearing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:30
Because it's a difficult pitch to master —and to catch —  there are a limited number of people able to do so, and able to teach it. What's more, knuckleball pitchers usually lack major league stuff without the pitch, so if it's not working that day, they are toast.
Dash
12:30
Who do you like to make the Hall of Fame next year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
Derek Jeter is a lock and could even get 100% of the vote now that that barrier has falen. Curt Schilling might make the leap from about 61% (though I wish he would just go away), and I hope hope hope Larry Walker makes it as well in his final year of eligibility.
Lazzaro Da Fietta
12:32
Any chance Padres signing of Machado gets Dodgers more interested in Harper?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:32
That doesn't appear likely
Jack
12:32
What do you make of Craig Kimbrel's extended stay on the FA market given how in recent years top relievers had been scooped up relatively quick?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
Kimbrel was reportedly seeking a nine-figure deal, which was never going to happen, particularly given that last year he showed some signs of decline, and his chances of surpassing Aroldis Chapman's five-year, $86 million deal are probably slim in this market and at this late date. Something slightly beyond Wade Davis' three-year, $52 million deal, in terms of AAV, is probably the best he's going to do.
Slurve
12:37
Is it surprising at all that Hosmer has 100 more hits than Trout? Both have 8 years in MLB...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
You've got to look closer than thaat. Hosmer spent most of 2011 in the majors (128 games) where Trout had just 40. Hoz has ~400 more PA than Trout, and ~800 more at-bats, since he doesn't walk nearly as frequently. The total difference in hits is pretty meaningless given that context.
Kurupt FM
12:39
How real was that awful Eric Hosmer season and could that contract be salvaged or is it dead in the water as is?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:42
That was a dreadful season, with a 95 wRC+ and -0.1 WAR. The problem is that Hosmer is just killing worms, with a 3.06 GB/FB ratio and an average launch angle of -1.2 degrees. The good news is that unless there's an underlying injury that we don't know about, I see no real reason that he can't find an approach that produces more consistent elevation and greater production. But he and the Padres have to find something that works, because last year wasn't it.
AJ
12:42
Estimate not on Harper destination but rather years and dollars?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
10/$326M — enough for Boras to claim victory, albeit with some money deferred (not $100M, as the Nationals' end-of-season offer reportedly contained.
mika
12:43
Has Sale overtaken Scherzer as best pitcher?  as the projections seems to suggest
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I think they're very close in true talent but Max is the more durable one even if he is five years older. What you're seeing is a reflection of that age gap and an assumption that Sale is good for 200 innings — but last year, Scherzer threw about 60 more. So he owns the belt for now.
Name
12:47
Out of those three (Sale, Manny and Harper) who would have the best chance if they retired today? Would any of them have any chance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
None of them has played 10 seasons in the majors, which eliminates them from qualification for the Hall.
Pikachu
12:49
Any reason to believe teams will be dissuaded from sign stealing with the new rules?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
Teams have been stealing signs since forever and will continue to do so, even if there are barriers in the way of that.
Lou
12:49
Why don't teams just take a traditional pitching prospect that is not working out and convert him to a knuckleball pitcher?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
In general, the pitcher has to buy in, which is a big hurdle to clear. The team has to buy in as well, AND employ an instructor and a catcher who can handle the pitch. And then the team has to commit to giving innings to the convert that could be used for another prospect or at least an organizational depth piece. You would think there would be more, but here we are.
Outta my way, Gyorkass
12:51
Where does Kuechel ultimately land?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
At this stage my guess is that he returns to the Astros and gets a deal with an early opt-out. Maybe a Cespedes-like contract.
Vinny
12:53
What is the best pizza in Brooklyn, and why is it L&B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
I've never had L&B — I don't get to that part of Brooklyn much. I LOVE Di Fara and would probably place that atop my list, with Lucali probably second (sister restaurant Giuseppina's, in South Slope, is an underrated player too). Unfortunately, the pizza is pretty unremarkable in downtown Brooklyn, where I live.
Moltar
12:57
How often is "player X reported to be seeking Y dollars" leaked out by a front office to make player X sound ridiculous and ultimately drive down their price?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
Well, that's not the only reason why a team would leak the information; being seen as in pursuit of a free agent is positive PR (see: the White Sox's pursuit of Machado) even if there are no points for not signing. But both players and agents have ulterior motives when they leak — the former wants to present the figure as too high, the latter wants to create the perception of multiple bids. Always view that stuff with suspicion. Always.
Cam
1:01
Can someone explain WAR and what statistics are used to calculate it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
tnt9357
1:02
Hope your PT goes well!  Before the HOF voting, you wrote about Bobby Abreu that he was "totally screwed" for HOF vote, that Sheffield could be reconsidered due to fWAR treating his defense like a Superfund site, but that Ichiro, who's case is reliant on outlier defense going the other way (that Fangraphs and other sites doesn't recognize nearly as highly) is "beloved throughout the game.  First ballot.  95% plus".
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