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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/21/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
Thanks! Easily 95%+ for Ichiro, but he won't be eligible until 2024 or '25, depending upon whether he plays with the Mariners this coming year. Even a single appearance, such as in the season-opening series in Japan, would delay his eligibility. Which might be a small price to pay if that's a bucket-list item for him.
Lee
1:04
What would a reasonable extension for Chris Sale be?  The Red Sox have to be a little wary about that arm.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
I wouldn't begin to think too hard about an extension until seeing how he holds up this season, but I have to think he and his reps would look at Strasburg's 7/$175M as a starting point.
BTucks
1:06
Why did Carlos Delgado never receive any HoF love? All evidence points to him putting up CLEAN monstrous numbers in a dirty era.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
Delgado landed on a VERY crowded ballot in 2015. While his offensive performances were impressive, he was viewed as something of a one-dimensional player — McGriff-like, but without the league leads and substantial postseason presence — and he was basically done at age 36, which never helps. HIs WAR and JAWS place him even below McGriff.

I respect the hell out of him for making his voice heard about the God Bless America bullshit and the bombing of Vieques, but I don't see him as a Hall of Famer. Here's my 2015 profile of him for my HOF series at SI.com https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/15/jaws-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot-carlos...
Indymets
1:13
The Mets are letting Mickey Jannis develop as a knuckelballer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
He's mentioned in my piece, which is now live! https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ryan-feierabend-and-the-disappearing-knuck...
Qualia
1:14
I've always thought the knuckleball could be a viable path for a woman to become a MLB pitcher. Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
it's not a new thought, and in fact we've seen precedents. Eri Yoshida, a Japanese woman, has pitched in independent leagues both in Japan and the US. She didn't have much success stateside (7.62 ERA in 78 innings from 2010-2012). https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=yoshid001er...

Claire Eccles pitched in the collegiate West Coast League in 2017 and '18 and struggled as well https://www.mlb.com/cut4/claire-eccles-made-history-in-west-coast-leag... http://d15k3om16n459i.cloudfront.net/baseball/player.html?playerid=113...

So there hasn't been much success to speak of, but one has to admire the fact that those women have gotten even that far. I do think we'll see more of them in the coming years.
Rick
1:22
Do you expect Jon Gray to bounce back this year or is pitching in Colorado just too much?  He did talk about his off season workout so of course he must be in the best shape of his life :)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:27
Gray had some health issues last year that he attributed at least in part to weight loss https://www.denverpost.com/2018/10/10/rockies-jon-gray-health-stronger... and he's since put on more weight by lifting and changing his diet. The guy pitched to a 4.08 FIP last year at altitude, and the Rockies still believe in the talent, as do I. Maybe not as much as I believe in Kyle Freeland or German Marquez, but still.
Jv
1:27
I also live in Downtown Brooklyn - the pizza at Circa Brewing over on Lawrence St. is worth a try (not top tier but the best in the neighborhood). Solid beer too.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:30
Yes, I live very close to Circa and eat there about once a month. Likewise Fortina, in DeKalb Market, and Fornino, at Pier 6 down by the water, are good as well. They ain't Lucali or Di Fara, but they're a whole lot more manageable.
Hakaida
1:30
Is there a HOF case for Buerhle or Tim Hudson?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:31
No, not in my eyes. Hudson's 81st in JAWS, Buehrle 88th. They outrank some HOFers, including Sandy Koufax and Whitey Ford, but neither has a convincing case.
stever20
1:31
But would Sale really get Strasburg money?  I mean, for Strasburg- his contract covered 28-34 years.  Sale start of next season will be 31, with a very similar injury history.  So 7 year deal would be 31-37.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
No, i don't think Sale will get Strasburg money. But I do think that's the starting point for an extension without a trip through free agency, since the guy has been on a club-friendly contract for so long.
JD
1:33
Hi - What do u think of Profar moving to OAK?  Does he still have superstar potential?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:36
I like the move to Oakland, assuming he's playing regularly (we have him projected for 616 PA at 2B). I'm skeptical he ever becomes a superstar, but I don't think it's out of the question that he makes an All-Star team or two over the next few years under a best-case scenario.
JD
1:37
I can't get a read on Victor Robles...is he a full-time player this year?  (Would Harper re-signing put him on the bench for another year?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
Bryce ain't coming back. The plan appears to be for Robles as the starting CF, but given how much time he missed last year, and how little experience he has in the high miors, I don't think it would be a huge surprise if he starts the year in Triple-A. Eric and Kiley consider him an impact prospect for 2019. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-impact-prospects/
JD
1:38
Does your middle name start with a "J" by any chance?!  :)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:39
It's Steven, so yes, of course.
Lazzaro Da Fietta
1:39
Chances of a third NY team within five years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:39
Absolutely zero.
Bread Gardner
1:40
How bad a commissioner is Manfred, really?  Like, relative to his historical peers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:40
I don't think we can really answer that yet, but when Bud Selig has a case as the best, the bar is pretty goddamn low.
1:42
OK folks, lots of good questions in the queue, but I've gotta jet. Thanks for stopping by, please tip your waitresses and bartenders, and tune in next week!
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