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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/3/20
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Sirras
12:45
Is there a storyline you're most interested in for the coming season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
The ball and home run rates is a pretty big one. Obviously want to  see how the new pitching rules (3-batter minimum) play out. Certainly interested to see if the teams connected to sign-stealing take a step backwards. Plenty of individual ones — i'll do a post at some point
Gregg
12:46
If Verlander is indeed a hypocrite about baseball matters, doesn't that actually affect his HOF case?  Writers penalize Schilling for his off-field character flaws totally unrelated to baseball; why not penalize a pitcher for his character flaws that *are* related to baseball?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:48
because nothing Verlander has said rises to anything close to the degree of Schilling. He's not suggesting violence against anybody, he's not attacking anybody in a protected class. He's merely being kind of an asshole in a competitive context. That's garden variety stuff.
Sirras
12:48
Will getting a HoF/award ballot change what content you release or when you release it going forward around the awards?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I've been eligible for awards ballots since I got into the BBWAA but being in the New York chapter I have zero shot at getting one. As to the HOF stuff, while I will certainly be excited to get that first one in the mail, I will still probably execute the series as I have done in recent years and save my ballot explainer to the end.
brad
12:49
Correct, if you are going to knock verlander it would be going to Houston and using the pine tar resin mixture to go from a SP that Det was literally giving away for free, to cy young winner....
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
nobody cares about pine tar
Sirras
12:50
Do you anticipate any of Yoenis Cespedes, Jed Lowrie, or Dominic Smith being traded before the regular season begins?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
I can't believe the Mets haven't traded Smith, quite frankly. The odds of him hitting like that in a 200 PA sample again are low, so why wait until his value drops again?
mmddyyyy
12:51
How much time passes between you writing an article and it being published?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
it depends. If I submit a piece before i go to bed it might be 12 hours, but it could be an hour or less if it's in the morning and it's a high-profile thing.
mmddyyyy
12:53
Supposing Ohtani ended up with 55% of an HoF career as a hitter and 55% of an HoF career as a pitcher. How would you expect the electorate to handle it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
They'll give him 110% of the vote!

I expect that if Ohtani has an impressive dual career, the raw numbers aren't going to matter nearly as much as the uniqueness of the performance.
Hank
12:54
Thoughts on Curtis Granderson's career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Really excellent career. Not a Hall of Famer but he almost certainly deserved more than 3 All-Star appearances. I enjoyed seeing his breakout with the Yankees, and he was fun to cover. only ballplayer I've ever seen with a Simpsons backpack (If I'm remembering it correctly). I think he's going to have a great second career involved with baseball in some other way — perhaps the union.
mmddyyyy
12:58
Liquid or bar soap?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
liquid
Eric
12:59
Is prospects week not happening this week anymore?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
It's next week
mmddyyyy
12:59
Any players that have surprised you by hanging around the top or bottom of the ballot for longer than you expected?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
Jeff Kent. Not that I'd be likely to vote for him but I'd have figured he'd be 50% by now.
Them
1:00
If you don't think Dom Smith can replicate his hitting from last year, do you think that other teams are basing offers on the same assumption? And, if so, then are the offers maybe such that it makes as much sense so keep him to see if maybe he can put up those numbers again? Also, he's a Pete Alonso hamstring tear away from being a big part of the team...
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:02
It's not that I don't think he's capable of a 133 wRC+ again, it's that in 200 PA of sporadic playing time behind Alonso and god help the Mets, in the outfield, the likelihood of him replicating that performance is slim. Think about it this way, if he starts off the season hitting .170 through 30-40 PA in April instead of .370 as he did last year, the Mets are going to decide they have better uses for that roster spot.
Nathan
1:04
Which big year guy from last year do you see the most regression from
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:05
Given his shoulder surgery, there's no way in hell Eugenio Suarez is hitting 49 homers again
Narvain
1:08
I don't understand the Padres - Red Sox trade rumours for Betts.  Red Sox presumably want to get under the luxury tax, which taking on Wil Myers's contract would not help them do.  Padres want to dump Wil Myers's contract and allegedly get to a $145mil payroll for 2020.  Doesn't seem like this trade would accomplish either.. Am I missing something?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
It looks strange to me. Craig Edwards went into detail here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/walking-through-a-potential-mookie-betts-t...
Guest
1:08
Isn't 3,000 hits no longer an automatic qualifier with ARod coming to the ballot soon?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
I would assume any PED suspensions to be disqualifying in that context, sorry if that wasn't clear.
Dog mutton
1:10
Are you at all skeptical of LeMahieu’s success last year?  And, who do you think plays first base for the Yankees most in 2020?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
I think Voit gets most of the reps at 1B, with LeMahieu settling in at 2B. Will he hit .327 with a 136 wRC+ again? I'm skeptical, but it's clear that he's not just a Coors Field confection
Dave
1:11
Standard ballpark food order?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
At both Yankee Stadium and Citi Field, I generally go for the pulled pork (MIghty Quinn's and Blue Smoke, respectively). even if it means trekking halfway around the ballpark from the press box to get it. Hot dog or sweet sausage sometimes if I'm there as a fan
mmddyyyy
1:13
How much harder is playing infield defense than playing outfield defense?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
You're asking the wrong person, as I couldn't judge a fly ball for shit.
BK
1:14
Who's going to be the next unanimous Hall of Famer? Albert Pujols? Miguel Cabrera? Or some other rando that's unknown to us?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
As I've said before, my money is on Ichiro
Seabass
1:14
Is this where we place the ludes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
you holdin'?
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