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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/3/20
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Dave
1:15
Outside of the Pirates finishing in last, do you think any team in the NL Central can finish in any spot in the standings?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
I appreciate the Reds' aggressiveness this offseason but I don't see them finishing first. That outfield projects to produce a total of 2.9 WAR in our depth charts, and while i'd take the over on that, I don't think it will be a real asset for them.
Jordan
1:17
do you think if ARod continu in the direction hes going as a media personality that he may still reverse enough no votes for him to get into the hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
No. He'll do better than Manny but ain't no way he's getting to 75% barring a sea change in how the whole era is viewed
swansby danson
1:18
Does Torii have a shot at 5% next year? Comparing him to guys like Lofton or Edmonds he shouldn't have a shot, but I see some similarities to Omar Vizquel's career - longevity, defensive accolades/reputation.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
While I get what you're saying, the defensive metrics just aren't there for Torii (+29 runs career via B-Ref) even remotely the way they are for Omar  (+129). I'm skeptical he gets enough support given how other recent CF have fared
CubbieBear
1:21
Likelihood Dustin May secures a rotation spot in LAD out of spring training.  Is Julio Urius ahead of him in development?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
Urias is certainly ahead of him. I'd expect May to spend time in the rotation but as he'll almost certainly be on an innings cap I doubt he's there in April. Plus there's still the question about whether Price joins the rotation via trade
Greene
1:22
Re: Reds: Fangraphs' depth charts don't include Akiyama in the Reds' outfield.  ZIPS has him as about a 2.0 WAR player, which might not be decisive in the race for the division title, but certainly helps.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
oof yes, good point.
Pat
1:22
Granderson "break out" in NY? He was a 20-20-20 guy for Detroit in 2007!  (same year as Jimmy Rollins) Having met him, he is one of the truly nice guys in the game. Class act & one of my all time favorites, even if he only spent 5 years in Detroit.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
fair point but he didn't hit 40 homers in back-to-back seasons while making All-Star teams in Detroit. But yes, a nice guy and a class act.
Big Joe Mufferaw
1:24
Seriously, if Markakis gets 3,000 hits. Do you think he has a shot of getting in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:24
the guy's been league average or worse three years out of four. there's nothing he does well enough to tolerate that long enough for him to get to 3,000
1:25
ok folks, it's time for me to get some lunch and get on with the rest of my day. Thanks for stopping by!
1:26
Oh, and please be sure to vote in the SABR Analytics Award voting. I'm one of three FG/THT representatives there. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-sabr-analytics-awards-voting-now-open...
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