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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/5/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon and welcome to today's chat — the first time I've gone back-to-back weeks with a chat since... September! Some housekeeping while we wait for the queue to fill...
2:01
On Monday I published my latest five-year outlook for the Hall of Fame voting https://blogs.fangraphs.com/changing-times-the-next-five-years-of-bbwa...
2:02
And then yesterday and today I published a two-part series on the remaining free agents with spring training less than two weeks away. Here are the position players https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-i-top-remaining-...
GenericDodgerFan
2:02
Bauer has to be signing with the mets i think
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:02
Seems quite possible it could go down while we're in this chat. We've all got one eye on it
Justin
2:03
Hey Jay, thanks once again for the HOF coverage. As always, I read every piece you write on the topic. I seem to always enjoy the 5-year preview pieces the most. In that spirit, care to make some guesses regarding upcoming veterans committee iterations? Will all 3 of Allen, Kaat, and Oliva get in next year? Who is next in line for Modern Baseball--Can Dwight Evans make the jump from 50%?)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:04
Thank you. The math is such that there's almost no way three candidates will be elected via the Golden Days Era Committee, in part because there are also other candidates who could draw support such as Minnie Miñoso (who got 8 votes last time), Gil Hodges, and Maury Wills
2:05
As for the Modern Baseball ballot, Evans, Dave Parker, Steve Garvey and Lou Whitaker would be the top returning candidates, and again, they're competing for ballot space.
2:06
I also think Luis Tiant could get another look
Morbo
2:07
Jay, I learned last week that I am moving to Oneonta, NY (30 mins south of Cooperstown) for my wife's new job, and I have been patiently waiting for your chat all week to share. Maybe I'll see you at induction weekend this summer
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:07
Oh, very cool. Let's all hope there will be an induction weekend to attend (there will be an induction, the Hall says, but whether it will lend itself to the full menu of festivities remains to be seen)
Kyle W
2:07
Are you guys planning on doing another primer for the KBO and or NPB?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
We haven't discussed yet – it's possible, though
Rob
2:08
Thoughts on the angels loading up exclusively on one year deals this offseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
It's the industry trend. I'm waiting for somebody to tell me how this year's percentage compares to years past because I don't want to do the gruntwork myself but at some point we'll have comparisons
2:11
In the case of the Angels, their payroll is so top-heavy that it seemed unlikely they would take on many multiyear deals until they cleared Pujols at least (after this year). With him, and the newly acquired Cobb and Fowler coming off the books they should have room to spend next winter
Derek
2:11
Bauer was fantastic last year, but approaching $40 mil/year seems like a TON (even if it's on a relatively short deal) for someone without a real, established track record of pitching at the highest level for full seasons, not to mention the... less savory aspects of Bauer's persona. I suppose giving the players more money is better than the alternative, but the numbers being thrown around seem way out of line to me. Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
I addressed these factors a bit in the piece above. His track record of elite performance is short — he's never had a 30-start season with an ERA below 4.00 — and he brings some non-performance concerns with him as well.
Marc
2:13
So, to get this out of the way first, Ichiro is a surefire lock for the HOF. However, given the nature of his hitting profile, his WAR totals obviously aren't as high as other generational hitters. Can I ask where he ranks through JAWS for his position, irrespective of his HOF chances?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
He's 16th in JAWS among RF, above the peak standard (which is really where one should look first in the case of truncated or constrained careers) but below the career standard https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-2-top-remaining-...
he was always a bit overrated relative to WAR but so what? Tthe entertainment value more than made up for it.
Ray Raffe
2:14
What are your thoughts on Ozuna's situation? It feels pretty unlikely that he goes to Tampa, but there's an odd amount of buzz there.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I have a hard time believing the Rays could make a competitive offer unless it has an opt-out he's sure to exercise, but i feel like he just did the one-and-done contract thing and rightly feels as though he can find some stability. The Braves haven't signed a free agent position player to a deal of more than two years since Markakis in 2014 but if he's really only looking for something in the 4/$100M range, that seems manageable
RJ
2:18
Did Mets completely misread Realmuto market? Gotta think that they would have pursued him if they had thought he could be had for ~75% of what they’re now offering Bauer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:19
Unless I've missed something, their recent offer to Bauer (something like 3/$100-110 with an opt out) is going to come in slightly under the $115.5 million Realmuto got.
Tacoby Bellsbury
2:19
Between Wainwright, Goldschmidt and Arenado, which is most and least likely to make the Hall? And which would you put there, given nothing catastrophic happening.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
There's no way Wainwright is getting elected, but the other two have reasonable shots. Coincidentally, both rank exactly 33rd in JAWS at their respective positions but Goldy is closer to the standard. He's also 3 1/2 years older and has seen his value take a hit with the move to STL.
billyjojimbob
2:23
Pedrioia. HOF right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:25
Doubtful. Falling short of 2,000 hits probably dooms him, just as it has everybody else from the post-1960 expansion era who's failed to reach that milestone (though someday, Dick Allen and others will break that barrier).

He was always going to need exceptional staying power to have a real shot at the Hall. Unfortunately, the knee injury was too much to overcome.
Morbo
2:26
I just wanted to say that that whenever a writer leaves Fangraphs for a position where their work becomes nonpublic, looking at you Craig. It always reminds me appreciate and not take the remaining writers for granted. In that spirit I just wanted to say that I/we appreciate you and that your content has exponentially expanded my knowledge of baseball history, the Hall of Fame, and the generations of players that came before I started watching the game. Please tell us that the Hall isn't going to steal you from us.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Thank you so much for the kind words. I don't think we're in any danger of the Hall poaching me; I'm on good terms with folks there but I think I'm a little too spicy for the institution's tastes. They won't sell my book in the gift shop, apparently!
MB
2:27
Will the FanGraphs pitching leaderboards eventually show Pace data for 2020 (under the Pitch Info tab)? The column is there but it's currently blank.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
Good question, will ask
Guest
2:27
I realize Luis Tiant is a bit short on Hall credentials, his two closest comps being Catfish Hunter and Jim Bunning, but I never knew until I just looked him up that he pitched in the Mexican League both before and after his time in MLB. Are you for or against letting him in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
I've come around to being in favor of him. There are several other players I'd put in ahead of him but he's at or near the top of the list for pitchers (have to think about that one a bit more closely).
BB
2:29
Favorite NYC music venue(s)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
Ah i remember going to music venues. What a time that was.
2:31
Many of my favorite venues are gone. Loved Brownies and liked CBGB, as much for the history as anything else
My favorite at this point is probably Bowery Ballroom
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