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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/5/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
I like Brooklyn Steel for bigger shows and Mercury Lounge for smaller ones
Isolated Thinker
2:31
Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz are 2 rare examples of players having one of their best seasons while approaching/surpassing age 40. The only other player I can think of that comes close is Dave Winfield in 1992.  Granted Cruz did it over only 53 games, no fault of his own of course, but can you think of any others?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
Phil Niekro and Randy Johnson had some great seasons around and even after 40
2:33
Niekro: career-high 10.0 bWAR at 39
Johnson career high 10.7 bWAR at 38
Ben
2:34
If you had to pick one player younger than 28 that has the best chances of being a Hall-of-Famer someday, would is the closest to a lock? Lindor? Bregman? Seager? Correa? Bellinger? Soto? Acuna? Tatis?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
of the first five i'd pick Lindor because of his ability to stay on the field at a key position. Of the other 3 I'd put Soto last because his defense is a liability and at some point he'll be a DH
Guest
2:36
You talked about David Wright in your 5 year HOF preview. He put up 50 WAR through his age 31 season. If health had allowed, how much more would he have needed to make the cut on your ballot? If he had managed to put up 15-20 more WAR through age 36 or so, would that have been enough? Would his peak have still been too low?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
70 WAR would be a hair below Scott Rolen, who's 10th all-time, so yeah that'd do it. 65 WAR would be 13th between Boyer and Buddy Bell, which is pretty much where the line is without having a high peak — and alas, Wright's peak was pretty modest (39.5, lower than any BBWAA-elected 3B except Pie Traynor).
Some Guy
2:38
How will you view the Astros cheating scandal when it comes to potential HoF induction for their players (Beltran, Verlander, etc.)
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
completely irrelevant to Verlander. Might hold out on Beltran for a year but not permanently.
2:40
I haven't thought in those terms, really. I'd like to see what Beltran's path back to baseball employment is and how he carries himself. It's gonna look pretty bad on the part of the industry if he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt that Cora and Hinch did.
GvK
2:41
Best Brooklyn pizza: L&B, or Lucali? Sal's on Court Street? Sam's?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
I'll go with Di Fara, with Lucali (and its secret South Slope sister Giuseppina) second. I'm high on Grimaldi's too, and have had a lot of it  during the pandemic
Tom
2:42
Loved your missed time HOF article. In reference to Wainwright, would he have a better shot at the Hall had he not missed about 2 1/2 seasons due to injury, if we can assume (a big assume, I know) he had performed at a similar level?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
Eh, the extra time would probalby have helped him get past 200 wins, and 4 top-3 Cy finishes and the rings — that's not nothing but right now he's about 20 WAR south of Sabathia (whom I'll vote for) and I'm not sure 2 1/2 seasons is enough to overcome the gap.
Glad you enjoyed the Hall piece!
Delaware Fan
2:45
Big baseball fan and embarrassed to say I just discovered FanGraphs website. It is awesome. I guess better late than never.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
Welcome! There's always going to be somebody who's new to the site, whether they're young or old. We're happy to have you aboard
Tony Plush
2:46
Jay, I desperately want to believe my brother when he tells me the Royals have had a sneaky good offseason. Agree? Disagree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:47
I like the Carlos Santana move a lot, and think Minor is a decent gamble, but I don't see enough else to really merit a hearty thumbs up
Cambodian Creamsicle
2:49
When it comes to active players and their HOF chances, everyone talks about Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Yadi, etc......I would like to know your thoughts on what Salvy Perez needs to do to become a HOFer.  Thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
He's got 24.2 bWAR through age 30, bad framing numbers and a lot of mileage on those legs. I don't see it happening for Perez, sorry
GenericDodgerFan
2:51
Bauer to the Dodgers according to Jon Heyman!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
Nick
2:52
Any chance the Reds make good on the rumors and actually acquire Willy Adames?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
It's the sensible move if they intend to contend, but he's not going to come cheaply
Some Guy
2:53
What do you think the odds deGrom makes the Hall? Or, if it is easier what does he have to do to have a good shot?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
He's gotten a very late start but I think if he were to win a 3rd Cy Young he'd probably be some kind of Koufax-like exception where his career totals don't matter
Some Guy
2:54
Any idea how you will view the Covid season for HoF voting? As a hypothetical if a guy is 3 WAR short of the standard but was on pace for an 8 WAR season this year (so an additional ~5 WAR) would you vote for them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
JAWS shouldn't be used as a binary yes/no. Context is always important — military service, color line and post-integration quotas, strikes and now a COVID-shortened season are all factors that should be considered for the players affected
Poetfiend
2:56
Hi, Jay! Just wondering what your thoughts are on the inability of the HOF Golden Era Committee to get a vote together this year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:57
Disappointed. From a technical standpoint, I get it — the extra resources that they would have needed to devote could have compromised the confidentiality of the proceedings (imagine a devoted IT guy/gal for each voter on a secure system) but from a human standpoint it really sucked to keep a bunch of octagenarians waiting.
Derek
2:59
Is Ozuna's slow market a result of the (still) lingering uncertainty about the universal DH, or is there genuinely not much interest in him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
I think the DH issue is a significant factor, as is the Braves' general avoidance of long-term FA deals. There's interest, though
sucramrenrut
3:00
Do you get disappointed when no one gets elected to the Hall? It's certainly a let down for me as a fan, considering there are so many candidates who are worthy and will get in eventually.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
I was very disappointed in 2013 but this time around not particularly because I didn't want to see the closest candidate to election get to 75%. True heads know that the real action was in the middle of the ballot where less problematic guys like Rolen, Helton, Wagner and even Sheffield put themselves in position for eventual election.
Delaware Fan
3:03
Interesting to see all the Hall of Fame talk. In my opinion, fans think way more players are Hall of Famers than they should. If their careers ended today, I think only HOFers playing now are Pujols, Trout, Cabrera, and Verlander.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
From an historical standpoint, a figure of 1.5 future HOFers per season per team is about right, meaning 45 active right now. Even if it's just 30 — well, you're drastically undercounting. Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke and Betts will be elected someday, possibly Altuve, some from among the question above (Lindor, Bregman, Seager, Correa ,Bellinger ,Soto, Acuña, Tatis)... and others who we haven't even gotten a handle on yet
Alby
3:06
If Chase Utley isn't elected, the 2007-11 Phillies won't have a single Hall of Famer except for Halladay, who was only there for the last two of those seasons. Is it unusual for a team of that caliber to have none of its key players make the Hall?
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