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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 2/5/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
for a 5-year run like that, I think so. for a 1-championship team, though, not that uncommon. The 1988 Dodgers and '97 Marlins come to mind.
Mr. Byrnes
3:07
Do you like Talking Heads?  Watch American Utopia?  Listen to the Talking Heads podcast by Scott Aukerman and Adam Scott?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
Love the Talking Heads and recently re-watched Stop Making Sense. Haven't seen American Utopia yet — I should, right? I don't really get a chance to listen to podcasts, alas. It's a stretch for me to squeeze in more than 1-2 a week and usually i don't listen to any
3:09
Toshiro Mifunke
3:10
Is it possible for a player to have a HOF peak and put together so many craptastic compiling years that it cripples his JAWS? In other words, does Pujols's awful LAA years diminish his transcendent STL years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
I mean i suppose you could cook up an example where a player was so bad outside of his peak that his JAWS looked mediocre but it ain't Pujols, who's second to Gehrig in career, peak and JAWS among 1B
Tacoby Bellsbury
3:12
Isn't the legendary peak/craptacular surrounding years the Dale Murphy case?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
sort of, but at 46.5/41.2/43.9, he was below standard even on peak (44.7)
Ben
3:14
Will Kershaw be the 3rd best LAD pitcher in 2021? And who is better right now between Buehler and Bauer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
I mean, Kershaw did have a better season in 2020 than Buehler, but Buehler's 2019 is something that Bauer doesn't have yet — a 30-start season with an ERA under 4.00. I think it's possible Buehler outpitches Bauer over the next 3 seasons.
Fan
3:17
Will you vote for Pedroia?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
probably not. He's well behind Utley for me
Josh R
3:17
I think Dustin May would make an outstanding closer. Do you think the Dodgers could lean that way and leave him there for years or is he still a starter down the road?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:19
Tough to say. I think that barring trade/injury he's going to spend a chunk  of time in the bullpen in 2021. He's got great stuff but needs to translate it into missing more bats.
Mr. Burrito
3:19
why did whitaker fall out from HOF contention during his initial 10-year voting run? his numbers feel solid
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
He went 1-and-done with 2.9% in 2001. Sheer stupidity on the part of too many voters, though it would have helped if comprehensive metrics like WAR existed to give a better estimate on his total impact
Ben
3:20
In reference to the Pujols question above, Nomar Garciaparra is a good example of a HoF peak, but enough terrible outside of that to cripple his case. IN his 14-year career, his best 7 seasons were 43.1 bWAR, but other 7 seasons gave him just a combined 1.2 WAR.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:22
Nomar's 43.1 WAR peak is right at the Hall standard... but he had 1.2 WAR outside of that. Had much less to do with playing badly than it did being unavailable; he topped 81 games just twice in his 30s.
Adge
3:23
Jays and Anibal Sanchez?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
Doubt there's much left in the tank. I think they'd do better to get Walker, Paxton, or Odorizzi
Mgk
3:23
Are their any actions Schilling could take that would make you reconsider your stance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
There's no coming back from cheerleading an insurrection as far as getting my vote.
Tigers Fan
3:25
Will Lux be the starting 2B this year for the Dodgers and have a good year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
I think he'll have the chance to win the job but his 2020 was such a lost season that it wouldn't surprise me if he starts in the minors.
Mike Ortman
3:25
I know it will be a while until we see a Today's Game Committee, but when we do, who is most intriguing to you? Appier, Olerud, Ventura, Crime Dog, Bernie (all sub 50 JAWS).
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
none of those guys really do it for me. Kenny Lofton is the one I'm hoping does well
Alby
3:28
In terms of players screwed by missed time, is there anyone who got whacked worse than Sal Maglie? Missed two years to WWII, then five more for daring to jump to the Mexican League. Didn't pitch his first full season until he was 33.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
I'd never really thought of him in those terms but aside from the fact that it's 4 years he missed in and after Mexico (1946-49) you're right, that's a ton of time missed. 119-62, 3.15 ERA (127 ERA+), only 30.5 WAR but 5 top-10 seasons.
Mike Ortman
3:32
Harold Baines’s election totally blindsided everyone. Is there one player who you’d love to have “undeservingly” elected? I’ll go first Coco Crisp just for the plaque. #afro
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
I'd vote for Fernando Valenzuela if given the chance
Guest
3:33
Do you know off the top of your head, are the Dodgers over the CBT? If so, are they likely to try to move some salary?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:34
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/dodgers yes by nearly $30 million. I'd guess they trade Price and eat a significant chunk to get under $230M (2nd threshold)
3:35
OK folks, my time is up for today. Thanks so much for stopping by, be safe, and we'll hopefully run  my streak to three weeks in a row next Friday!
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