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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/1/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
I've been recognized in public several times, which is always strange and flattering, but I don't remember Times Square, though I guess it might have been in the 6-month period when I was in the rotation on ESPN's Olbermann Show. With Stanton, Judge, Sanchez and Bird all (hopefully) healthy, I think this Yankees squad has a shot at the record of 264, hit by the 1997 Mariners. The Yanks hit 241 last year and added Stanton, so...
Sloth
12:43
I am shocked Votto's hit total is so low given how great of a hitter he is.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
Those walks really cut into the hit total. Offhand, i wonder what the highest career batting average is for a player who never had a 200-hit season, or even a 190-hit one (his high is 185).
Josh R
12:44
Bill James needs to be in the Hall of Fame.  How would this happen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
In theory, James could be nominated for and win a Spink Award. The BBWAA has recognized a non-BBWAA member exactly once, when the great Susan Slusser spearheaded an effort to recognize Roger Angell. I don't think James would be greeted with quite that level of acceptance among the scribes, though.

What I really think heeds to happen is for the Hall to resurrect the Pioneer designation or create a new one (Innovator?) to collect a few folks like James, John Thorn, Pete Palmer, Sean Forman and others
tb.25
12:48
Higher probability outcome - Giants win 85 or 75? Projections have them around 82
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I think 85 isn't unrealistic. I don't think they were a true talent 91-loss team last year, they were something of an outlier. Still think the rotation is an arm short, though.
EbenezerBatflip
12:50
Who has the better year, Pomeranz, Porcello or Price?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Price — he'll be the team's second-best starter behind Sale (to answer a similar question in the queue).. I'll bet on the track record even if his time in Boston has been rather rocky.
CamdenWarehouse
12:51
James would get the support in 5-10 years, right?  As the number of writers directly or indirectly shaped by him skyrockets.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I think more like 10-20. Not out of the question but his time as an exec/consultant kind of clouds things a bit.
Bill Jones
12:52
When do the positional power rankings get posted? That series is my primary source for draft prep
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I think we're assigning those to writers next week so I imagine mid-March is when they run. Don't quote me on that, I'm the noob here.
Q-Ball
12:52
Speaking of Hall of Fame, I bet Theo Epstien has already punched his ticket.  Would you agree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Hell to the f'ing yeah. He'll be one of those guys who gets in on the first ballot after he retires or turns 65.
Mr Punch
12:53
Ted Williams (.344) never had 200 H
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
that was easy. He had seasons of 193 and 194, though he also had the disadvantage of the 154-game season. Anybody want to dig up the expansion-era record?
Sircharles
12:54
Lets say Phillies grab Arrieta, think that puts them close to the WC?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
Only if an extraordinary number of things go right for them. We have them forecast for 74 wins. Figure a great Arrieta season is maybe 6 wins better than their 5th starter, and that the variance for a given team  projection — including such a season for Jake — is about 8 wins in either direction. it could happen, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
Scott
12:57
I think the overall decline of union membership across the US has led to decreased support for the MLBPA, which means increased support for the owners during contract negotiations
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
There's that, sure, and probably also the fantasy baseball-driven cultural shift from wanting to be Bryce Harper/Mike Trout to wanting to be Theo Epstein.
Taste the Rockies
12:58
Do you look down on people who don't drink craft beers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
I try not to. It's possible to be very into wine or whiskey in a similar way to being a craft beer fan, and that probably has a correlation with having similar interests in other areas as compared to a beer drinker who settles for Bud/Coors/Other Big Piss.
kevin
1:00
Over/Under: Pedroia has a 15% chance at making the hall of fame.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
Over; offhand i'd say it's about 2x that. He's got the MVP, ROY and rings, but he does have to stay healthy, and he's had a hard time doing that.
Babe Lincoln
1:01
Trout HOF odds if he retires tomorrow?  Harper HOF odds if he retires tomorrow?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:04
Both have to get to 10 years (playing at least 1 game in 2020) to be eligible. Trout would almost certainly y get an Addie Joss-type exception if the unthinkable happened. Harper has a whole lot left to do, starting with playing a bunch of 140+ game seasons. Today I'd put Trout at 99.9%, Harper at 30-40% thanks to his early start and hardware.
Tyler
1:04
How is tony gwyyn a first ballot hof and Dwight evans is not even in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
the electorate has always overvalued high batting averages. Milestones help as well, as does being perceived as a true star. Guys who derive a high % of their value from walks and defense tend to be underrated by voters, and that describes Evans and many others just outside
brant brown dropped the ball
1:07
would it violate the cba to make a deal that has an opt-out after, say, year four, with super-low salaries for six more years, so that at the outset the cbt value is prorated over ten years? i know that after an opt-out there's a "fix" that happens, effectively charging the team for the upcharge they avoided at the outset of the deal. but if the dollars were low enough on the back end, that charge wouldn't be that large.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:11
I'm not 100% sure on this one but I do believe that it's within the rules. Not that the CBT will be a concern for the Padres, but that's sort of what Hosmer's deal does, with 5 years at $20M and 3 at $13 M for an AAV of $18 M (there's also a $5M signing bonus)
Davy
1:12
How much does an average team make on their TV deal? Is there any way to look that up? I'm asking as a Nats fan, since I know theirs is suboptimal.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
Wendy Thurm tracked that stuff a few years ago, and more recently Craig Edwards wrote this https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/estimated-tv-revenues-for-all-30-mlb-t... but that was in 2016, and I imagine the numbers have changed.
TJ
1:13
Mauer HOF? Nearly decade as top catcher, MVP but underrated as his top skill is on-base. Another 3 years- 3 WAR players. Gwynn is in and I argue given Mauer time at catcher, obp and defensive skills should be recognized
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
I think Mauer gets in, though a Twins blogger recently joked that it might be the first time a team's fan base works to thwart such an effort. Wrote about his case here in November https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/02/world-series-playoff-hall-fame-proje...
Alec
1:14
Could the case be made for Robinson Cano best 2B ever? (unbiased!)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:17
Even if you concede that the game is much different than it was when Lajoie, Hornsby and to a lesser extent Eddie Collins (the top 3 in JAWS) were dominating, I think it's hard to see him surpassing Joe Morgan due to the gap in on-base skills
John
1:17
People mostly have a positive outlook on Manfred, but hasn't he been pretty abysmal? The lying over changed baseballs, publicly considering  idiotic ideas nearly once a week, the Marlins, the way he dealt with Gurriel in the world series...
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
I think he's been sort of disappointing, but c'mon, Bud Selig was far more maddening AND had a hand (or two) in collusion, the 1994 strike and the PED mess. That's abysmal and yet the case can also be made that he's the best commissioner the game has seen. In short, Rob Manfred is a land of many contrasts
RK
1:21
how long into the season will it take before we have some sort of answer as to whether the ball is still the "enhanced" version or not?
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