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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/1/18
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:22
Considering that this home run trend really took off after the 2015 All-Star break, I think we need a full season to really know.
Babe Lincoln
1:22
Why is HOF your area of focus?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:25
Honestly, I kind of lucked into it. Circa 2001, when I created Futility Infielder, the New Bill James Historical Abstract came out and had those top 100 rankings based on Win Shares. I looked at the 2002 and '03 HOF ballots in that light and the work got an order of magnitude more attention than my usual ramblings. Baseball Prospectus invited me to do something for them in the winter of 2003-04, and I stumbled into a WARP-based JAWS system. Giving tools to internet-based users has helped turn HOF ballot season into a spectator sport and I've been lucky enough to be at the forefront of what's become a renewable resource for content.
Matt
1:26
Andujar just looks liked he missed a ball and sent it over the fence just to the left of CF. He's breaking camp with the team, and going to put up a line of .270/.350/.450 with 28 HRs. What say you, Mr Jaffe?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
It's certainly possible he breaks camp with the team but I think the arrival of Brandon Drury and the presence of Gleyber Torres and Tyler Wade in the 2B/3B mix reduces that.. and I think such a line is more or less around his 90th percentile PECOTA projection in terms of rate stats.
Tris
1:30
Is Gary Sanchez the most important player in the Yankees lineup?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
IMO it's Judge — how repeatable is his 2017 in total? Can he avoid that type of deep second-half slump? How is his shoulder?

Sanchez will be fine. That homer he hit yesterday made the hair on my neck stand up
BK
1:32
More WAR this year, Acu~a or Swanson?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:32
Acuna, in a partial season. Poor Dansby.
Jimmy
1:33
Who is Jay Jaffe?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
Who are any of us, really?
Nap
1:33
Which of these guys make the HOF: Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Joe Mauer, Dustin Pedroia, Felix Hernandez, David Price
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:35
I'd say Mauer and Pedroia are the most likely. I think Rollins is a committee type but not a great one. I worry about Utley. Don't think either Price or Felix is going there unless they start laying down Cy-caliber seasons again.
silvpak
1:36
jaffe, thrilled to see you here at fangraphs (i'm the dude from the brooklyn bowl dinosaur jr. show) and holding strong on the sarris beer vertical. question: given austin barnes' elbow twinge this spring, utley's advanced age, kelbert ruiz and will smith on the horizon, and forsythe coming to the end of his deal, what's the likelihood LAD will, as the season progresses, start getting barnes more 2b experience? i have visions of craig biggio dancing in my head.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
Hey there! that's an interesting possibility, especially because I think that Forsythe is the escape hatch the Dodgers use if they need to take on salary in mid-season while remaining under $197M — trade his $9M AAV, muddle through with in-house options and add a #2 SP or something. Dunno if Barnes can figure it out to the level of Biggio but he could be a very Zobristian player for a few years.
Bruce
1:40
I've been readin you for years and youve definately created a cool and interesting niche for yourself, but do you ever get tired of "does this guy deserve to be a HOFer" questions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:41
Not really, no. I'm thrilled that I get to write about baseball daily for a living, and willing to play the hits every night, so to speak.
Zonk
1:41
At what point would it be "too late" for a free agent to be ready by opening day?  Probably different for a pitcher or hitter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:44
Definitely different for a pitcher than a hitter given the methodical ramping up of pitch counts and the potential for setbacks if a guy tries to work too hard. Like, I'd bet Arrieta doesn't debut until mid-April if he signs today. For a position player, I think signing by next week is still doable — get lots of extra at-bats in minor league and split squad games
EbenezerBatflip
1:44
Mookie Betts over/under 25 HRs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:44
Over. The guy's two full seasons are 31 and 24, after all.
EbenezerBatflip
1:44
Does Sale strike out 300 guys again in 2018?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:45
No, my guess is that he paces himself a bit more gently this year, consciously generating contact in order to save some mileage
isaac
1:46
which AZ pitcher be affected by the humidor the most? Which AZ batter?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:48
I'd go with Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke, the pitchers with the highest FB rates, as getting the biggest bounce from the humidor. Tougher call on the hitters, maybe Jake Lamb?
Q-Ball
1:48
Brewers project for 78 wins right now on Fangraphs.  That seems really light, doesn't it?  How do you account for that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:49
It does seem light, yes. Wow, even. Really doesn't like the Villar-Arcia middle infield, (combined 2.1 WAR for all options there), and sees only Yelich, Cain and Shaw as position players with >2 WAR; last year they had 4 plus Bran pro-rates to at least that. They do need another SP or two as well.
Mark
1:52
Now that Chase Utley has secured a 2 year deal, isn't he a lock for Cooperstown once he reaches 2000 career hits?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:53
He's not even a lock for 2,000 hits. 150 short, had 73 last year. If Scott Rolen is a tough sell for voters, Utley might be even tougher.
Jake
1:54
Do the Cardinals have enough starting pitching to make it through the season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:57
They do look a bit thin. Nee to get Reyes back on a reasonable schedule and get a much better version of Wainwright than the 2016-17 one.

With Meg Rowley's chat set to begin at 2, last question, I'll see if I can find a good one...
ASReitz
1:58
Prediction - J. Arrieta gets ___ Yrs for ___
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
5/$125 M with an opt-out after two, from... (throws darts)... either the Cardinals or Brewers.
Thanks for stopping by, folks! It's fun to get back in the swing of things. Now go bother Meg....
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