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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/11/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
There was better message discipline on both sides
2:34
And the owners were always going to have the advantage, but the players did better than expected without actually costing themselves games
Ross
2:34
Over/under on top 20 remaining FA deals done today?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
i bet we get a couple today, picking up speed over the next few days. Again, it's get the best deal not the first deal.
Eric Hosmer
2:35
Since I have zero ambition to be better, a desire to pursue a declining physique, and love pounding balls into the ground, will the Padres be able to send me anywhere or am I anchoring a terrible first base for them for the next four years?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:35
I suspect you've played your last game for the Padres. They'll eat significant cash to send you away
Mork Borg
2:36
Am I crazy, or does it seem like the players gave up extra playoffs for minor increases across the board that still aren't keeping up with inflation, let alone the rising team valuations?  There's a big bump in numbers this year, but that's really just making up for the lost increases they should have had in the last CBA, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
They're about 2 CBAs behind in keeping up with revenue. They did get a big jump and bigger y-t-y increases for the minimum salary than ever. Can't recall where I read it but somebody (a player, I think, maybe Miller or Cole) said they thought it would take 15 years to make up the ground they've lost over the two previous CBAs.
Carlos Correa
2:38
Do you think that spending over the next week will indicate how teams look at the CBA?  Do you see any major changes in the way teams spend?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
It's going to take a lot longer than one week to see how teams look at the new CBA. The draft stuff (domestic and international) will take years to unfold.
A Boy Named Yu
2:40
Which Wander will spend more time in AAA this year: Franco or Javier?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
Wander Franco will never play another minor league game unless it's on a rehab assignment
joe
2:40
Freeman? Correa? Olson? What do you see happening for NYY? They can't possibly do Rizzo and a stopgap can they?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
Trevor Story strikes me as the most likely addition, moving to 3B when Volpe is ready. Correa ain't happening. Rizzo if they miss out on Story. It won't be a very happy fan base one way or the other.
A Boy Named Yu
2:43
Are you aware they made a sequel to the Sandlot in the early 2000's?  I'll save you 90 minutes.....it's not good.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
I've never watched the Sandlot, TBH.
Matt VW
2:44
Jeff Coltin's harrowing anecdote is in itself a basis for a recall election.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
agree 100%
Carlos Correa
2:44
When did "rebuilding" become negatively rebranded as "tanking?"
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
during the Astros and Cubs rebuilds, thanks in part to the caps on amateur spending from the 2011 CBA
2:47
teams suddenly had a lot more cost control over the rebuilding process, which made it more palatable
cmkeller
2:47
Hall of Fame voters seem to usually be willing to vote for players whose excellent careers were cut short by injury that isn't a result of aging, e.g., Sandy Koufax, Kirby Puckett. I would have thought Thurman Munson would fall well into this category (death being the most extreme sort of injury). Any thoughts as to why HoF voters haven't seen him that way?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
I don't think that's as true as it appears from Koufax and Puckett. So much of the voting historically has had to do with career milestones and totals and guys with short careers generally don't reach them. Munson... really didn't get along with writers and I think that had something to do with his particular reception from the voters.
A Boy Named Yu
2:49
I'm trying to get the wife to greenlight a trip to Cooperstown for our anniversary later this summer.  She is a big baseball fan but is worried there aren't enough "non-baseball-date-night" things to do.  I've never been myself.  Any thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
There's good food and beer up there, including the Ommegang Brewery (which I've actually never been to, because my time in Cooperstown is as regimented as that of Apollo astronauts on the surface of the moon). There are other museums such as the Fenimore Art Museum and the Farmer's Musuem. There's a film society that my pal (and former C'town mayor) Jeff Katz runs. Find him on Twitter @splitseason1981 and he can sell the town better than I can!
A Boy Named Yu
2:52
With the universal DH, are teams more or less willing to dabble with two-way players?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
it's so complicated to do but maybe we'll see somebody else try; I don't see Brendan McKay or Hunter Greene as likely ones though, so the next Ohtani, if there is one, isn't apparent yet.
2:54
Honestly i think we're going to see a lot of teams just use the DH spot as free parking for regular players to give them a partial rest rather than lock in more Nelson Cruz types
WinTwins0410
2:55
Jay, a HoF question. But first, thanks for your hard work in creating S-JAWS and for some of your recent profiles on those who rank well in S-JAWS, including Stieb and Reuschel. I especially appreciated your “Born in the Fifties” profile on Frank Tanana, and I had a question for you in comparing the careers of Tanana (whom I previously had asked you about in the 8/4/2020 chat) and Mickey Lolich (whom I had asked you about in the 11/17/2020 chat). I realize that despite their impressive career strikeout totals, neither one was great at run prevention. But what explains why Tanana’s bWAR is so much higher than Mickey’s? (57.0 to 48.0) Is it simply that Frank (whose ERA actually was higher) had a longer career than Mickey? Or is there some other aspect that I am missing here?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
~500 more innings for Tanana, against generally tougher offenses (4.42 runs/game to Lolich's 4.10) with slightly lesser defenses behind, albeit in slightly friendlier ballparks.
Rich
2:58
Have you talked about Graig Nettles's HOF case before?  Seems like he's right there.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
I have an entry on Nettles in The Cooperstown Casebook. I think the .248 batting average has been hard to overcome when it comes to the oldsters who bypassed him on the BBWAA ballots and still  have control of the Era Committee ballot assembly process
A Boy Named Yu
2:59
I'm relieved baseball is back, but is it bad that in a weird way I also wanted it to drag on further so it would make the owners feel the burn more?  Help the players get a better deal I guess.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
You know who really feels the burn with no games? The people living paycheck to paycheck, ballpark workers and others around the game who have absolutely no control or direct stake when ti comes to the battle over millions or billions of dollars. I'm not trying to shame you here, just to keep things in perspective. A whole lot of people would suffer if a month or half a season went away. The billionaire owners aren't among them.
Dan
3:02
Your story on the CBA said that a term could send a player to the minors a maximum of five times. After five times, what happens? Club needs consent from player to go down or player becomes free agent? And your story also referred to draft and follow, but didn't seem to explain further. Do you have more color on that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
Guest
3:04
Not a question about the new CBA, but about team control for veteran international players like Yoshi Tsutsugo. After his 1 year contract is done this year, is he a free agent or does Pittsburgh still have control given his limited service time?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
He can apparently become a free agent after this season despite having less than 2 years of service time. Not sure exactly how that works but it was in place when he came over from Japan and signed with the Rays.
Guest
3:05
Who do you think advocated for cancelling the R5 draft?  And do you think it was much of a sticking point?
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