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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/11/22

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Jay Jaffe

3:07

I believe that I read somewhere (sorry, i've seen a million tweets go by in the past few days) that it was apparently the preference of front office folks, who have enough on their plates with the rush of free agents and spring transactions to deal with the Rule 5.

Bea

3:07

Which owner would be the worst at Wordle?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

Dick Monfort

Josh

3:08

As a Dodgers fan, the option limits is a very interesting part of the CBA. How do you see this affecting teams and players this year? More gassed relievers, starters going longer, nothing? Curious your take on it

Jay Jaffe

3:08

I thought this, from a YES Network researcher, got it right

Not only is this less chaotic for the players' lives in general, but limiting the revolving door could have the downstream effect of shortening bullpens, less max velo at all times, more balls in play, longer outings from SP, etc.

I know it's going to be like the 14th most notable thing here, but I really really like the limiting-options rule, I've wanted that for years. It's a small thing that could be a big deal.

3:09

maybe the effect won't be extreme — but it will make the lives of the Mitch Whites and Louis Heads of the world easier as well.

Phil

3:09

As a veteran of a few CBAs (in a very different industry from baseball), I wasn't that surprised to see the split between the exec committee and the rank and file. That has happened for every contract I've been involved with, mostly because the exec committee is always older (closer to retirement) than the average worker, which means that they have different interests.

Jay Jaffe

3:10

Interesting perspective, thanks. Also worth pointing out that the exec subcommittee had 4 Yankees and Mets (Cole, Britton, Scherzer, Lindor) and those were 2 of the 4 teams that dissented as well — because they're potentially among the biggest spenders.

guy who asks the lunch question

3:10

what's for lunch?

Jay Jaffe

3:11

I had my usual: cracked pepper smoked turkey with Jarlsburg, cucumber, and Potbelly Giardanera on Arnold Country White.

https://www.bonappetit.com/story/potbellys-giardiniera-underrated-cond...

3:12

I've lost some lunch options in recent months including the beloved doner kebab place and the decent premade sandwich place and so now everything for lunch starts at about $12. Between that and the omicron wave, i've been very disciplined towards lunches at home in 2022 so far.

Insert Witty Name Here

3:12

I’m about to have my first born son in a few months. What advice do you have to give from your experience as we’re both older fathers?

Jay Jaffe

3:14

Savor the moments, don't try to look too far forward ("I can't wait until he can ————"), look for ways you can be helpful to your wife because she's inevitably got the harder job than you.

3:15

and keep track of things if you can. it will be fun to look back even when they're 4 or 5 at when they did things like say their first word, take their first step, move out of the crib, potty train, etc.

Phil

3:15

How would you assess the overall performance of baseball writers/reporters over the last three months? Better or worse than you would have expected?

Jay Jaffe

3:17

I'd like to think mostly better. There's a more diverse media covering baseball than ever before, many of which have fought union battles of their own and thus isn't reflexively pro-owner. There's a lot more room for analysis and the kind of number-crunching that can set the record straight when a commissioner lies about baseball ownership not being very lucrative or the players having it better than past generations

3:19

Exceptions abound, and we still see some of older writers with a willingness to carry water for management while preserving their access and their relevance.

Phil

3:19

I was really interested to read David Ortiz's comments on the international draft (though the tone of them was characterized differently in different outlets, I felt). Do you think international HOFers like him, Pedro, etc. carry any sway with MLB, or are they just not that interested in input except through the bargaining process?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

I absolutely think that the likes of Ortiz and Martinez have sway with the Latin American players. They rose from poverty to become legendary players, a road that so many of their fellow Dominicans (in this case) want to replicate. They know how much corruption and exploitation there is in the current system but also know that MLB has played a part in that system being preserved, and that there's no quick fix.

Matt VW

3:25

Has anybody benefited more from the NL adoption of the DH than Kyle Schwarber? His market has suddenly doubled while he's still pretty close to his prime and coming off the best year of his career.

Jay Jaffe

3:27

I think Castellanos, who's a year older and coming off an even bigger season, with a similar lack of defensive value, is in the same boat. The universal DH also gives Freeman a longer runway for a deal that draws down his AAV

Dave

3:28

Do you think the Cubs would flip Stroman already if he has a good first half and the team stinks?

Jay Jaffe

3:29

not unless he explicitly wanted out. IIRC you can't trade a free agent you signed to a multiyear deal within the first year of signing him without his consent.

olethros

3:30

You're the Cardinals and can sign one of the following: Greinke, Rodon, Kershaw. Assume the contracts are the FG projections. Which do you choose?

Jay Jaffe

3:31

Rodon (4/$76M starting with 3.5 WAR at age 29) is the way to go there.

Dave

3:31

re: Hosmer, what kind of prospect capital do you think SD would have to attach if the new team is willing to eat the entire contract?

Jay Jaffe

3:31

A Wander Franco clone.

3:33

Ok, that's probably an overstatement. But he's owed $59 million and that is A LOT of prospect talent to give up.

A Boy Named Yu

3:34

Follow-up to Wander AAA question, I guess that was my point. Is it more likely Franco has some rehab time or that Javier gets his s**t together and decides to start hitting the ball?

Jay Jaffe

3:35

Javier finished the season in High-A. He's not going to reach the majors this year.

M’s Fan

3:35

King Felix, was his career not long enough or peak not high enough for HOF consideration?

Jay Jaffe

3:36

Both

3:38

He had a very nice run of ~42 WAR from 2008-15, albeit with a couple of good-not-great seasons in there so it's not a massive peak. Bigger problem is a net of 0.4 WAR in his 30s.

In There Like Fred Astaire's Swimwear

3:38

Please rank in order of "how is this guy not in the HOF conversation much less the actual HOF" bafflement: Rick Reuschel, Kenny Lofton, Jim Edmonds, "King Kong" Keller, "The Crime Dog" Fred McGriff, Lou Whitaker, Craig Nettles, and Bobby Grich.

Jay Jaffe

3:40

Should be in:

Grich
Lofton
Whitaker
Nettles

Easier to understand why they're not, but I'd rather they were:

Edmonds
Reuschel

Will be, soonish:

McGriff

I understand the appreciation, but no:

Keller

Carlos Correa

3:41

Why wouldn't the Phillies sign Kris Bryant? Complete no brainer.

Jay Jaffe

3:42

If you mean relative to my Dodgers example above, it's just a matter of which team spends money and which doesn't

The Phillies do spend but they have been careful with regards to the CBT, the Dodgers burn through it.

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