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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/11/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat — the third week in a row I've been able to do this (please clap).
12:02
Yesterday, I wrote about the Hall of Fame's latest tweaks to Era Committee rules and (reluctantly) weighed in on the recent news regarding Pete Rose's potential reinstatement https://blogs.fangraphs.com/never-is-a-long-long-time-permanent-inelig...
There's a lot of confusion circulating around the latter aspect of that, so I hope I helped bring some clarity to the matter.
Beyond that, I've got a look at Jacob deGrom's spring debut and the overhauled Rangers roster in the pipeline for today.
12:03
And now, on with the show
Brad
12:03
Pete Rose accepted a lifetime ban from baseball before the Hall had its stance ruling out people on the ineligible list, and it stands to reason he may not have accepted such a ban if he realized that circumstance. Should that change how we view his candidacy for the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:06
No. He committed what had already been long understood as baseball's capital crime, and it should have been apparent from Shoeless Joe Jackson's fate that Rose's Hall of Fame chances were irreparably damaged
20longyears
12:06
Framing data has changed a lot of observers' understanding of catchers' value, but the data only goes back so far. Based on anecdotes or the eye test, who is one catcher from the past who you think would have a much higher lifetime WAR if we had framing data from their career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:08
One who really stands out in terms of his defensive value and reputation is Jim Sundberg, a six time Gold Glove winner who finished with 40.5 career bWAR despite an OPS+ of just 90. Of course, I'd love to know how Johnny Bench would fare via framing as well.
BangedUpYanks
12:08
Gerrit Cole being out certainly is a bummer for this season, but how will it affect his HOF chances? Could this be what keeps him out?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:10
Between last year's nerve issue, his TJ, and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he will have lost at least two prime seasons to injuries. Still, he's far ahead of his cohorts in terms of the numbers that most stand out to Hall of Fame voters. I think he'll be OK but he's less of a certainty than he was a month ago.
RH
12:11
What's your favorite single game of baseball that you attended?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
That's a very tough call. Jeter's 3,000th hit game was very cool, as was the 1999 World Series clincher (Yankees sweep Braves), but right now last year's clincher might occupy the top spot. The team I grew up rooting for sealing a World Series win over the Yankees in front of my eyes? Tough to top that
Stephen
12:12
With the injury news to Gerrit Cole (and Luis Gil and Stanton) what tier are the yankees in for AL contenders? Are they still top 5?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
In today's forthcoming Rangers piece, I noted that the losses of Cole, Gil, and Stanton have knocked the Yankees down to an 85.7-win projection, which is down 1.7 wins from when I checked in just a week ago (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-to-stanton-gil-and-lemahieu-will-...) but still tops in the AL. Via our Playoff Odds, we currently have five other teams within two wins of their total, and 11 within four wins. All of which is to say I see three tiers: those 11 teams, the next three (Guardians, A's, Angels in the 75-78 range) and the White Sox.
Yolmer Sanchez
12:17
Who will be the most shocking player to be moved midseason?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
wild-ass guess: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Yeah Well Hiura Towel
12:18
If Wheeler remains healthy for all of 2025, is he suddenly a better HOF candidate than Cole?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:21
It's gonna take more than just staying healthy. He's 50 wins, 600 strikeouts, and about 8 bWAR behind Cole despite being 101 days older; he's never won a Cy Young and has one win in a Triple Crown category (wins, strikeouts, ERA) compared to five for Cole.
12:22
I think Chris Sale is a better candidate, perhaps even better than Cole but his health is so iffy that youneverknow.
Tim
12:22
Can we put any faith in the hot spring Byron Buxton is having? I could use another OF/UT bat and he’s part of a group available that includes Noot, Profar, Adell, Conforto, NoJo, and Sanchez
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:23
I generally don't weigh in on fantasy questions but I can't quit Byron Buxton. Knock yourself out.
Nuxie
12:25
Wonder if you could clear up something for me. Before the giants and dodgers moved west there were three teams in NY. I’ve seen reports that there is a territorial veto on teams moving into someone’s area. When did this come into being and doesn’t it seem antitrust?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
You're forgetting that MLB has enjoyed an antitrust exemption that goes back to 1922
Toma
12:26
One could argue that since Rose wasn’t given a chance to make an informed decision regarding his eligibility, he should be reconsidered under a different standard. After all, he might not have agreed to the ban if he knew it would permanently bar him from Cooperstown.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
The agreement Rose signed was between himself and MLB. The Hall of Fame is a separate entity that gets to decide its own rules.
12:29
And as Manfred wrote in his 2015 denial of Rose's reinstatement:

Under the Major League Constitution, my only concern has to be the protection of the integrity of play on the field through appropriate enforcement of the Major League Rules. It is not a part of my authority or responsibility here to make any determination concerning Mr. Rose’s eligibility as a candidate for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame.”
Sirras
12:30
Congratulations! You've been given a one day stint as head of the HoF. What are you changing in your one day, whether it's in voting, in what's presented in the museum, or otherwise?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
1) another Special Committee on the Negro Leagues à la 2006, with a panel consisting of experts on Black baseball, and up-or-down votes concerning maybe a couple dozen candidates

2) expand the size of the Era Committee voting panels to 32 and make any former teammate, manager, or executive recuse themselves from voting on that particular candidate.

3) Create a One-and-Done Era Committee to address the candidacies of players who have been frozen out of Era Committee ballot placement after being neglected by BBWAA writers.
12:35
Additionally, I'd rescind the rules the Hall announced last week.
Least Biased Dodger Fan
12:35
Hey Jay, what do you make of the Dodgers briefly stopping Ohtani's bullpens (but not his throwing entirely) in order to "help him prepare for hitting this year?" Something to worry about or likely a nonissue that might delay his debut by a couple weeks?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
I think it's a non-issue or at most a minor one. Since the Dodgers currently have enough healthy starters to fill out a rotation, there's no reason to rush Ohtani back to the mound, and I imagine his spring training regimen and rehab from shoulder surgery has enough extra work that adding the bullpens as well might be a bit too taxing, creating more risk.
Sirras
12:38
What player do you find the most maddening to watch and why?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
Blake Snell's nibbling around the fringes of the zone and his high walk rate can drive a person to strong drink, and really slow down a game.
Jamie
12:39
Who do you expect to have a better season this year: Yordan Alvarez or Vlad Guerrero Jr. (assuming no injuries)?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
I'll go with Alvarez, who has never been anything but absolutely phenomenal at the plate.
Jordan
12:43
The Pirates will earn a wild card spot this year if ______________
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:44
oh boy. Let's see. If Joey Bart, Nick Gonzalez, Ke'Bryan Hayes live up to the highest hopes anyone had for them when they were first-round picks; if Bryan Reynolds hits like an All-Star; if the big three of Skenes, Keller, and Jones can combine for about 12 WAR... then yeah, I like their odds at winning a Wild Card spot.
Bardo Bill
12:45
If Chris Sale's career ended today I'd put him at 70% to get into the Hall of Fame by writers' vote. Would you go higher or lower than that?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
Lower. If he can get to 150 wins and 2,500 strikeouts (needs 12 of the former, 86 of the latter) it might be easier for voters to wrap their heads around his candidacy to the point that he has a coin-toss chance down the road.
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