JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/14/23

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Jay Jaffe

2:01

Good afternoon and Happy Pi Day, folks! I'm in the middle of a snowstorm with a sick kiddo underfoot and a contractor overstaying his welcome, but we're gonna try to get this one in.

2:03

'Tis the season when I plug away at the Positional Power Rankings, so I haven't published anything since Friday's look at how the injuries of some high-profile starting pitchers will be handled within their various rotations https://blogs.fangraphs.com/painter-rodon-gonsolin-and-quintana-are-th...

2:04

Since then, we've gotten word that José Quintana's injury could indeed keep him out of action for a few months, à la Chris Sale (whom I also wrote about last week https://blogs.fangraphs.com/chris-sale-begins-his-latest-comeback/)

2:05

On the subject of starters I also took a look at the most- and least-improved rotations following a busy offseason https://blogs.fangraphs.com/spotlighting-this-seasons-most-and-least-i...

Chip

2:05

Most knowledgeable people make the point that you shouldn't read too much into spring training results, mostly referring to misplaced optimism or pessimism. What if a guy is continuing an already bad trend? I'm thinking specifically of Spencer Torkelson who was bad last year, changed his bat, and now is bad in spring training. Is he, just, maybe not a major league player?

Jay Jaffe

2:08

Count me as one who thinks you shouldn't read too much into spring results, or dismiss a 23-year-old with 70-grade raw power after just 404 major league plate appearances. Should he be in the majors yet? Maybe not, given his modest results at Triple-A. Should you build your fantasy roster around him? Hell no. But 29 spring ABs in the first half of March against variable competition tells you nothing about where his career is going

A Jolly Good Oberkfellow

2:08

While he's far from HOF-worthy, is there any chance you might write about Joe Pepitone upon his passing the other day?

Jay Jaffe

2:10

Alas, I'm too swamped. I loved the Pepitone stories in Ball Four but didn't get far in his autobiography, which just depressed the hell out of me. RIP to a real character. I definitely recommend Dan Epstein's Rolling Stone piece on him from 2015 https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-sports/joe-pepitone-on-sm...

Snoozy

2:10

Yankees need to trade an IF for an SP right?

Jay Jaffe

2:11

I don't see it happening right now; they're not trading Peraza or Volpe, and IKF won't get them a starter. Maybe they trade Gleyber later this summer if they need to make more room for the kids but that's a long ways off.

2:12

and it's still not clear which way the shortstop battle is going to go.

Hans Dog

2:13

Sorry: I traded Trout for Franco +2, Rodon, and Mead +3. While he's my all time favorite player, I felt like I had to do it. Worth it??

Jay Jaffe

2:13

i'm not a fantasy player but that seems like a decent deal

Padfather

2:13

Does a player playing primarily for one team help his HOF chances? ie machado; does signing long term with the Padres help his perception among writers now since he’ll have larger contingency of fans and writers advocating for his election vs if he were to play for different teams during his tenure?

Jay Jaffe

2:15

I think there's probably a slight advantage to single-team players, and we've seen guys who bounced around like McGriff and Sheffield (and before that Dick Allen) struggle to gain traction, but I've never studied the situation very systematically.

2:17

Do you think Volpe breaks camp with NYY? Still seems like they'd have one too many IF

Jay Jaffe

2:17

i think it probably takes an injury in the infield to get both Peraza and Volpe on the roster

Farhandrew Zaidman

2:17

In honor of Pi Day, here's your random stat: Mike Marshall finished with a career ERA of 3.141, 4 digits of Pi, and continues to have the single most impressive relief season in the form of his 1974 season. 106 games, 208.1 IP, 2.42 ERA, 1.186 WHIP. What a stud.

Tatis

2:18

Hey Jeff, would love to hear your thoughts on Tatis going into this year and his long-term outlook in light of the shoulder surgery and two wrist surgeries this off season. The projections don't seem to count the injuries and I have to assume he's closer to 130 WRC+ than he is 160 WRC+ this year which is still great but perhaps there is further downside...

Jay Jaffe

2:19

it's Jay, not Jeff here...

I don't have a percentile breakdown of his projections but I'd be a bit wary of that 159 wRC+ forecast myself after the shoulder and wrist surgeries, and at the very least treat him as a high-variance player who could have some real problems recovering form... but could be spectacular

Mr. Redlegs

2:19

Not a question, but I love the WBC! So cool watching A ball guys get their chance against hall of famers like Miguel Cabrera and striking them out.

Jay Jaffe

2:22

I'm enjoying the hell out of it but all those late nights watching the goings-on in Taiwan and Tokyo left me pretty sleep-deprived. It's very cool to see younger players and Remembered Guys stepping up against bigger names. Vance Worley striking out Mike Trout? Love it. This one was even better:

A 21-year-old, 5-foot-9-inch Nicaraguan pitcher with a fastball that hardly breaks 90 mph struck out Juan Soto, Julio Rodriguez and Rafael Devers in today's ninth inning.

A Tigers scout signed him on the spot.

es.pn/405SCpa

random Colorado guy

2:22

I noticed Paul Goldschmidt atop Dan's "likely bust hitters" list last week. I won't ask you to second guess Dan, but how much decline would Goldy have to have for you to consider his 2023 season a bust? Odds on it happening?

Jay Jaffe

2:25

"Bust" is such a relative thing, but obviously, it's very hard to expect a 35-year-old player to repeat last year's 7.1 WAR season. I'd be happy if he returns 5 WAR this year (which eyeballs at about a 65th percentile projection via Dan's table) but would only be disappointed if he falls short of 4 WAR (40th percentile).

Lorenzo

2:25

If you were able to vote for Will Clark on your ballot, would you? What are his odds of ever getting in via committee? Thanks

Jay Jaffe

2:29

I like Clark more than I do McGriff or Hodges, to choose a couple of obvious reference points, but he's just 27th in JAWS at first base, about seven points off the standard, and that's too low for me even without considering the fact that on an Era Committee ballot he'd inevitably be up against stronger candidates. I don't see him as having much chance of getting elected but man could that dude hit

Mac

2:29

Yankees’ lineup underratedly really bad? No offense at C, LF, SS, 3B, now CF, Rizzo now injured. Season over?

Jay Jaffe

2:29

yes, they should fold.

Sanford

2:29

Ever been to a Cylcones game? If so, how was the experience?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

I've been to dozens of Cyclones games over the years — tough to believe they've been around since 2001 — and my daughter really enjoys them, so we've hit about two per year lately. She loves running the bases after the game so she's stayed to the end several times. It's a good little ballpark with a great view of the Coney Island rides past and present (the defunct parachute drop past right field is my favorite), decent amenities, and excellent promotions (Mo Willems night). Highly recommend, especially if you've got younger kids!

WinTwins0410

2:32

Jay, I hesitate to ask you for your thoughts on another writer, but I'm curious: I don't think I've ever seen you reference Chris Bodig, who runs the Cooperstown Cred website, in your writing. Do you two know each other? (I have to believe you do) Do you have any thoughts on his work?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

I have met Chris and I like his work a lot! He's done a very nice job of building his website (http://https://www.cooperstowncred.com/) We correspond a lot on Twitter and I do read him — but I sometimes try to steer clear of his views on candidates until I've formulated my own thoughts

IKantField

2:35

What’s your take on Andrew Vaughn this year? Big step forward with the new hitting coach?

Jay Jaffe

2:37

Just wrote about him within the first base PPRs. I think the new regime will serve him well, as getting him out of the outfield alone is worth a win. He's young and hits the ball very hard; ZiPS is high enough on him to consider him a breakout candidate.

Tstats

2:37

Happy pi day! Do you know if savant plans to update the pitch arsenal visualization page to include sweepers and slurves?

Jay Jaffe

2:37

I would imagine that's coming but you'd have to ask Tom Tango or Mike Petriello

Phil

2:38

Somebody called you Jeff? Didn't Jeff leave Fangraphs years ago, for the Rays or some such?

Jay Jaffe

2:38

Jeff Sullivan now works for the Rays. Jeff Zimmerman is still here, doing his thing on the fantasy side.

Milwaukee Beers fan

2:39

What’s your read on the NL Central pecking order right now? I get the Cardinals as favorites but it feels like EVERYONE is picking St. Louis when the Crew were slight favorites going into last year. Please don’t tell me the Cubs might be good again; I can’t take it

Jay Jaffe

2:44

I think the gap between the Cardinals and the Brewers has grown relative to last season, in part given the addition of Contreras to the former and the trade of Wong to Seattle by the latter. Milwaukee's second base situation even made my Weakest Positions on NL Contenders list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-weakest-positions-on-national-league-c.... There's still a very big separation between those two teams and the Cubs, and let's face it, the Reds and Pirates are barely trying at the ownership level.

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