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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/14/23
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Mac
2:46
Real question: is there something about Kyle Schwarber that makes him translate better as a playoff(/WBC) hitter than it seems like someone with his profile as a hitter should? Or are the playoffs just “a crapshoot” as kids these days say
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Schwarber is a very disciplined hitter who has a ton of big-game experience. He turned 30 this month and already has 15 postseason homers in 52 games, with a 142 postseason wRC+ compared to a 121 mark during the regular season. I hesitate to use the word clutch but I think it's clear he seems well-wired for the spotlight.
Vermonty
2:49
First Yankee traded: Hicks, Donaldson or IKF? I'm thinking all 3 will go this year
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Almost certainly IKF since remaining salary isn't a factor.
mmddyyyy
2:51
Do all teams employ translators?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:54
Since 2016, MLB teams have been required to employ Spanish-language translators, the result of an effort spearheaded by Carlos Beltran https://www.mlb.com/news/carlos-beltran-gets-spanish-translator-progra...

I don't know of any team with a Japanese or Korean player who doesn't employ a translator for them.
Phil
2:54
It's frustrating to me that mid-career elite players are so often discussed in terms of contracts and late-career ones in terms of the Hall of Fame, both of which are to some extent distortions of what really matters to players and fans. Can we figure out some alternative vocabulary? Is the term "franchise player" meaningful in a baseball context the way it is in basketball? Can we stop using "ace" to mean the #1 pitcher on a staff so we can reserve it for the best pitchers over all? Are there other terms that we can debate in friendly ways without defaulting to money or future voting by a bunch of grumpy writers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Hey, I do lots of discussion of mid-career elites in terms of Hall of Fame chances!
2:58
I do get what you're saying, at least to a degree, and I think that on the analytical side there's often a whole lot focus on dollars and production, but I think much of that is seasonal — the offseason is a time we talk free agency, contracts, budgets and the like. But there's so much else out there, and during the regular season there are so many ways of analyzing performance that get away from age/contract considerations.
Gashouse Gorilla
2:58
Any ready-for-primetime prospect likely to be held back for "seasoning" as a means of lengthening control period?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
We'll see what happens with the Yankees (Volpe especially), and there are other situations where a ready-ish prospect could probably help more than a veteran (Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty come to mind on the Mets) but I do think that the new CBA has done a lot to reshape the landscape here.
3:04
Put it this way, are there guys out there you're seeing who look like they're going to get jerked around like Kris Bryant?
Bison
3:04
Really appreciate your HOF commentary!  Any thoughts on future executives who might get the hall call?  Cashman, Theo, Billy B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
I think all three are very likely to gain entry once they retire.
Freezy
3:08
Do you like the contract extension for Corbin Carroll? It's much more than reigning ROY Michael Harris got for the same length.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
both in the short and longer terms, Carroll has a much stronger projection than Harris (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/corbin-carroll-reduces-snake-eyes-risk-by-... and https://blogs.fangraphs.com/rookie-standout-michael-harris-ii-signs-72...). I still can't believe the Braves are able to sign these guys so cheaply. I like the deal from Carroll's standpoint a lot more than for Harris, but if history tells us anything, it's that he won't remain a Diamondback for the duration.
Lou Perltzman
3:12
Tar was clearly a better movie than Everything Everywhere All At Once, right? JAWS backs this up I'm sure
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Didn't see Tar. In fact, if you don't count the excruciating, bizarre 15 minutes of Elvis that we watched, I only saw three of this year's best picture nominees: Everything (loved it, already watched again), Triangle of Sadness (disliked but not on the scale of my wife's contempt for it), and the Fabelmans (ok, with a BIG bonus from a couple of late cameos).
Philly Astroturf
3:15
Friendly reminder that the research linking Philadelphia's astroturf to cancer isn't conclusive. Fangraphs community, of all people, should recognize that statistical outliers can happen. Not saying that there isn't a "there" there, but at the same time, we shouldn't jump to conclusions.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
No, it's not conclusive, but it is pretty goddamn remarkable and depressing how many players who spent their careers on some of these turfs have died of similar cancers. I absolutely think the issue merits more study.
Nick
3:17
Are you concerned with swing and miss for Jordan Walker?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
not tremendously, but only because the prospect writers I'm reading don't seem overly concerned. He's a top five prospect in the eyes of many and 12th on our list, so it seems unlikely to be a dealbreaker.
Mr. Redlegs
3:18
Also late night/early morning WBC action has been my light at the sleep deprived tunnel as a new parent
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
Sorry got ahead of myself by punching in two questions there
3:22
The WBC sleep deprivation tunnel was me in 2017. I have fond memories of my daughter (about 7 months at the time) just starting to sit up during the WBC. We watched the Netherlands pull off some upsets while playing on her foam mat
Jesse
3:22
What do you make of the Dodgers' plan to play Mookie 20-30 games at 2b? Is this preparing Mookie for a late-career move to a less demanding position or a function of their lack of up the middle depth?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
They like their moving parts, and Mookie seems to like playing second base. With Lux out of the picture and Taylor more likely to be needed at shortstop, they want to maximize their options. I doubt we end up with 20-30 games of him there if they struggle with outfield production, though.
Pro For baseball
3:24
Anything on. Profar?  Sounds like player greed over took reality.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:26
yes, what a greedy player, trying to get paid to play baseball. greedy, greedy player.
3:28
At last note, Profar was getting interest from the Rockies. I think he's found himself in this limbo because his agents  misread the market; he's a bit of a tweener in terms of not having a strong enough track record for production at a corner, and not a good enough defender (especially in the infield) anymore to be a superutilityman. Ben Clemens had a good look here recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-has-no-one-signed-jurickson-profar-yet...
mmddyyyy
3:28
When did baseball become your full time job? How many HOF careers have you covered from debut to election?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
I believe it was 2007 when I started writing full-time though I had a pretty good payday project in graphic design the following year. Since I began writing about baseball in 2001, I've covered a lot of careers from debut  to ballot, at least, but we have yet to elect anyone whose career began in '01 or later so I can't say that I've done that yet.
Phil
3:34
By "a la Chris Sale," you mean that Quintana's injury is like the one Sale had last year, right? You don't have some new horrible information that's not widely reported yet?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
I meant that a rib fracture can sideline a pitcher for a few months, but in double-checking to see that I hadn't missed anything I just saw where Billy Eppler said that the pitcher will have surgery to remove a benign lesion on one of his ribs, which, yikes:
Dan the Man McGRAWWWW
3:36
Does Goldy or Freeman get into the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
Particularly after last year's MVP season, I think Goldy's in good shape, and Freeman is so good and so steady that I think he'll get there as well.
Joe
3:37
Votto can be an enigma in many ways--is there a chance he would announce he's going to retire at the end of the season instead of making the Cincy FO make that decision next offseason?

I know he'd be walking away from money, but if he's struggling, I could see his pride talking too.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
this is the final guaranteed year of his contract, and he's got a $7 million buyout of his option. That's there for a reason, and I don't see him walking away from it barring some midseason retirement that restructures his remaining money into some kind of deferral plan.
Freezy
3:40
Do you think we will see players start getting elected to the HOF unanimously soon? I'd like to imagine Ichiro has a chance to be the first position player to do it.
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