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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/18/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat! It's a lovely day outside in Brooklyn and I've got spring baseball on my TV
2:02
it's been a busy week writing about transactions. Yesterday alone I wrote up the Kris Bryant deal (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kris-bryants-enormous-payday-highlights-qu...) and the Zack Greinke/Mike Minor/Amir Garrett ones (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zack-greinkes-return-to-kansas-city-headli...)
2:03
and when I haven't been covering transactions I've been burrowing into my Positional Power Rankings assignments. First up: first base, where you might have heard about a few transactions
>this guy<
2:03
Jay what is your favorite trade or signing since the lockout ended? and least fav?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
I don't like anything about the Reds' sequence of deals. Saw them as contenders for a Wild Card spot with a little TLC but they seem intent upon getting into the draft lottery.
2:07
I'm not wild about the Rizzo signing by the Yankees but the projections for  him are stronger than my gut instinct. And I'm still not sure what to make of the Kris Bryant deal
2:08
on the other side, happy to see Greinke go back to KC because that's what he wanted, think the Dodgers did pretty well to get Freeman, and that Luke Voit is a nice pickup for the Padres
Thomas
2:08
Do you know if the roster rule limiting the number of pitchers that was supposed to be in effect in 2020 is applying this year? I haven't heard anyone mention anything about it
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
It's supposed to go into effect, but due to the shortened spring training there's also the possibility of expanded rosters to start the year, which may put that rule (no more than 13 out of 26 players can be pitchers) on ice temporarily
zurzles
2:09
Assuming Sabathia is elected - would he get in if he finishes his career with, say, 2800 Ks rather than 3100? Should he get dinged for finishing his career in a much more pitcher-friendly strikeout environment than he started, similar to big sluggers of the steroid era? His case seems interesting to me, because he's really a prime beneficiary of the increased K environment of the mid-late 10s - I don't think he would've cleared 3000 otherwise.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:09
I wrote about this when he passed 3,000 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cc-sabathia-joins-the-3000-strikeout-club/
2:11
He has benefited by pitching in a high-strikeout era, which helped him become the third lefty to 3,000, though his K%+ — strikeout rate indexed to the league, like wRC+ — is just 114, the lowest of the 3,000 club.
2:12
I think there are a lot of facets to his Hall of Fame case that go beyond just the strikeouts, particularly his stepping up in 2008 with the Brewers and '09 with the Yankees, his general durability and his late-career reinvention after confronting his alcoholism and his diminished fastball
2:13
I don't know that he's a slam dunk but I think his odds are better with 3,000 K than without. Glad his election seems more likely than not.
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
2:13
How good or bad of an experience is it to attend the Hall induction ceremony? On TV, everyone in the general crowd looks miserable sitting on uncomfortable chairs while baking in the hot sun and squinting to see the stage.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
Having been to the last four of these, I can say that it has its pros and cons, even as I've been lucky enough to have better seating than the masses  It's cool to see the pageantry and the speeches, but not easy to manage the exposure to the sun and heat over the course of a very long ceremony (and we've had some doozies lately), and the other logistics, including parking and lodging, can be a pain in the ass to navigate. But Cooperstown is fantastic to visit, the vibe is awesome on Induction Weekend because everybody there is nuts about baseball, and if you're coming to see a favorite player get inducted, what could be better?
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
2:16
Is the Greinke situation unique or do the Royals' efforts to build good relationships with its players help them when signing players? (And obviously it would be more of a tiebreaker consideration than turning down more money elsewhere).
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:17
whoops didn't mean to do 2 in a row from one reader but both good questions. I don't think the Greinke situation is so unique but the Royals organization generally gets high marks on its people skills from what I have heard
Bryan Price is Right
2:17
The Reds waive LHP Wade Miley and his $10 mil salary.  OK fine, maybe they are broke.  But later, they give up something of value in order to acquire LHP Mike Minor and his $10 mil salary.  Am I wrong in thinking that Wade Miley is actually better than Mike Minor?  Is there a logical way to explain the strategy here?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:18
Miley is significantly better than Minor, especially at a similar price. Again, i have no idea what the Reds are doing but it feels like they'd rather sneak into the draft lottery and see if they can somehow score a top pick while winning 74 games instead of 64
Pumpsie Green
2:19
That was quite the week! Thanks to you and to everyone there for the best analysis in baseball!
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:21
You're welcome! We've been planning for this week, with all of the big remaining free agents assigned to our writers so that we could do some preliminary analysis and the jump on the deals. A whole lot of people have stepped up to keep us turning the stuff around quickly, and Meg has done a great job of coordinating the traffic.

Bottom line: it's great to have baseball moves to think about rather than the labor situation, and we're all excited for the season to start
x2R
2:21
What do you prefer: full on robot umpire or 3 challenge per game with robot aid?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
For as impatient as i've been with umpires while calling for ROBOT UMPS NOW (see https://twitter.com/search?q=%40jay_jaffe%20robot%20umps%20now&src=typ...) Im ambivalent about their arrival now that I see the pros and cons as it's been tested. I'd like to see how the challenge format works in practice, but I think it could help.
Cynthia
2:24
What are your expectations for the Brewers this year? They have strong pitching and have exceeded expectations the past few years, but their lineup seems to be patched together with duct tape and glue.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
We have them projected as the NL Central's best team, with a forecast of 90 wins to the Cardinals' 83. Their pitching is excellent, as you note, and while heir offense looks middling, I think it can be enough. They've been pretty relentless about trying to upgrade even in-season so I'm not ready to judge the lineup as a finished product yet. Their chances would be helped if Yelich could return to something closer to his MVP form.
Guest
2:27
What’s the next move for Padres after getting Luke ?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:29
Finding an outfield corner bat or two and Eric Hosmer somewhere else. In our depth charts, their LF, RF and 1B project to produce a combined 2.7 WAR. That won't cut it in a division where Freeman and Betts could both have 2.7 WAR by the All-Star break.
Chris
2:30
Why is there zero rumors on Jansen?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
Teams have been pretty busy in pursuit of bigger game but according to the LA Times, he's got interest from teams including the Dodgers. He could be back. https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2022-03-16/kenley-jansen-....
Chris
2:32
When will story sign? Has his market collapsed to where he should take a 1 year deal or will he circle back to the mariners?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:33
blue jays
2:36
you think we add another bat ? if so who do you think would he a good get
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
I suspect that the trade to acquire Chapman means that they won't also land Jose Ramirez. I do wonder if they're players for Story, who could play second base, via a short-term deal
Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes
2:37
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
2:39
The question is why this has taken 10 years to come to light. What beat reporters were falling down on the job in 2012?
Gashouse Gorilla
2:39
Thoughts (and prayers) about the Voit transaction?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
He's a player with notable weaknesses (strikeouts, defense, health) but he's an excellent hitter who could flourish elsewhere, even with a move to a less hitter-friendly ballpark
Cynthia
2:42
Who do you think is the most exciting player to watch right now in the majors? Ohtani's two-way mastery? Fernando Tatis' incredible athleticism in everything he does? Soto's antics and godly plate discipline/hitting ability?
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