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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/18/22

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Jay Jaffe

2:43

all of the above but Ohtani's combination of skills at that elite level is something that hardly anyone who's alive has seen.

Zach

2:43

What's the deal with Bauer? Somewhat weird that they don't have a resolution to this matter after 9 months.

Jay Jaffe

2:47

It has taken forever, agreed, but the lockout prevented MLB from moving forward on the case and from what I understand, one additional complicating factor in the criminal case was a recall effort against the LA District Attorney. There was also at least one other woman who came forward to accuse Bauer, and while there's no criminal case there IIRC, the league may still be investigating.

david

2:47

I know the dodgers are going to rotate guys around but what do you think their main alignment will be. Muncy at second taylor in left and pollock at dh? or pollock in left taylor at second and either muncy or freeman at dh?

Jay Jaffe

2:49

I think they're going to use so many permutations that calling for "a main alignment" is probably an exaggeration. I do see Muncy getting plenty of time at 2B with Taylor in LF and Pollock at DH more often than, say, Muncy at 1B, but I think he'll DH a fair amount too, especially in the early going as he recovers from his UCL tear

Kenrick

2:51

What do you think of the Chapman deal for Toronto?

Jay Jaffe

2:52

Big win for Toronto, which was smart to add at a point when marginal wins can mean a whole lot for playoff and division chances. I don't know much about the prospects but it appears more quantity than quality, with Hogland a 45 FV and the others 35+ or 40s — useful players but nobody to lay awake at night worrying about having traded.

Ben

2:53

What is your favorite park to see a game at that isn't the primary team you support?

Jay Jaffe

2:55

Petco and Camden Yards, each of which I've been to only twice. Will be adding to the total for the former this summer as the Jaffe-Spans are spending 2 weeks in San Diego this summer, one for work and one for a family get-together.

Haven't been to Camden Yards in ~10 years but it's an excellent park that seems wasted on such a crummy team.

Tony

2:55

Will the vaccine mandate in NYC be changed at some point or will several Mets and Yankees miss half the season without pay? Your prediction please, thanks!

Jay Jaffe

2:56

I think the mandate will be adjusted at some point, but I think the unvaccinated Yankees and Mets are playing chicken with City Hall, and I have zero sympathy for their fates if they do miss games. I also think that Canada ain't playin' so even if these guys get cleared to play in NYC, the Yankees especially could suffer if they're playing shorthanded against a fellow AL East contender.

Harper's Harpies

2:57

If Bryson Stott is MLB ready are there any realistic trade opportunities for Didi?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

Gregorius is coming off a 68 wRC+ and 0.0 WAR season, forecast for 1.3 WAR, and set to make $14.5 million. I don't think teams are lining up around the block to trade for that? Maybe if the Phillies eat 50-75% of the salary they get a low-level arm of some note but I wouldn't be optimistic.

3:01

BREAKING:

Buck Showalter said today one reason Ryan Flaherty made the Orioles as a Rule 5 pick in 2012 was because he brought two monkeys to a camp talent show that spring. The monkeys threw batting practice, and the Orioles were later fined by the health department, Showalter said.

we have a monkey picture

adambulldog

3:02

If she becomes the first female manager in MLB, does Rachel Balkovec make it to the HOF? What are Kim Ng's chances at the Hall?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

If they get to the Hall of Fame it will be on the merits of their respective careers, including but not limited to trailblazing, and they would appear to have a whole lot of years ahead of them. I'm sure they'll get some kind of recognition within the institution even if they don't get plaques. But let's see where they go with the opportunities they have

Sam

3:04

How can we quantify the significance effect of players in the AL East likely having to sit out away games in Toronto if unvaccinated? Assuming a player will play ~150 regardless but in this case 9 of them are in division as opposed to what we'd expect if games missed were more randomly distributed?

Jay Jaffe

3:04

That's a question for Dan Szymborski and the ZiPS projected standings

Trevor

3:05

Are the Angels pursuing a free agent SS?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

I imagine they'll do *something* but if you're holding your breath for Correa or Story, don't. Funny thing, right now we have David Fletcher projected to get most of the playing time at both 2B and SS. I suspect that unless they do something they'll roll with Fletcher at SS and use Duffy, Rengifo and/or Wade in the mix at 2B. Which isn't very inspiring but then the Angels haven't been very inspiring lately, Ohtani and Trout excepted.

mmddyyyy

3:08

Do we know what the tiebreakers are now?

Jay Jaffe

3:10

Assuming you mean to determine playoff spots since there won't be tiebreaker games (

😢😢😢) ? I imagine they'll be along the lines of what's used to seed and determine home-field advantage under the previous system: head-to-head records, intradivision records, intraleague records, last half of intraleague records, last half + 1 game, etc.

3:11

It will suck compared to the excitement of a do-or-die game.

Sirras

3:11

Phillies supposedly in on Nick C. That could mean him, Schwarber, and Hoskins all on one team. Why does Dave Dombrowski hate defense?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

Don't forget Alex Bohm and his -19 DRS at third base in about a season's worth of playing time.

3:14

I don't know why the Phillies are so bad at this aspect but the issue predates Dombrowski and the current cast of characters. Remember this? https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-worst-drs-weve-ever-seen/

Hoskins put up -19 DRS in left field that year but the others weren't on the team.

3:15

You acquire talent and you try to come up with hitters and there are only so many places you can hide bad gloves and the Phillies have been over the limit for awhile.

Jared

3:15

If the jays sign Story I'm shaving my beard and leaving just the Stache in your honor.

Jay Jaffe

3:16

Ok, you're on the honor system but if this happens, I'll publish before and after pics if you provide them

mmddyyyy

3:16

How many articles are you working on at a time?

Jay Jaffe

3:17

Depends on the time of year but in-season I mostly have one at a time, with maybe a rainy-day project (often HOF) on the back burner. In the offseason, technically i'm working on all of them for the HOF series, taking notes on what's changed since the last year and on new candidates even before I sit down to write up or revise the profiles

Yankees Injury List

3:20

What do the Pirates do with Oneil Cruz this year?

Jay Jaffe

3:21

Give him some time at Triple-A (he has just 6 games there) and then bring him up to play shortstop sometime this summer if it goes well? I don't have much more insight than that right now but we have him taking the bulk of the playing time there in our Depth Charts forecast

Matt

3:22

Is San Diego the best city in the United States? I mean if God wanted to create the perfect baseball city/park, it would be Petco, right? I mean beautiful park in a beautiful area of a city's weather that seems to be made for baseball.

Jay Jaffe

3:23

San Diego is lovely, with a lot going for it. it is a big favorite in the Jaffe-Span household.

Hmmm

3:23

When Greinke is elected to the HOF, will he give a speech? I know about his struggles with anxiety and can imagine doing something like that is incredibly anxiety-inducing.

Jay Jaffe

3:25

the last person who will tell you anything about what will happen if he's elected is Greinke. I suspect he'd give a speech but it's cleraly something he doesn't want to talk about right now

I asked Greinke about the defensive talent on the team. He said it was a very good question.

I then asked if this signing increases the chances he wears a Royals cap in Cooperstown. He ended the press conference. #Royals

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