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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/18/22
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Matt
3:25
If the Red Sox are interested in a Story or Correa, does that mean Bogaerts to 3B and Dever to 1B? Or do you think they move on from Devers?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
I think the whole situation is complicated by Bogaerts' opt out after this season. If they were to land Correa or Story on a long-term deal they might trade Bogaerts, with Devers at 3B and eventually Casas at 1B. If they were to land Story on a short-term deal, he's probably 2B for now, and SS if Bogaerts opts out
Zach
3:30
Are the Guardians insane for reportedly asking for Manoah and Moreno as part of the potential return for JRam?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
they can ask but with just two years of club control left, I don't see them getting even one of those guys as a headliner.
Guest
3:31
Someone please tell someone from the Orioles that those appear to be chimpanzees, not monkeys.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:31
don't let fact-checking get in the way of a good story.
Marshall
3:33
If Freeman hits his Zips projections, do you think he’s a hall of famer? His overall stats would look very similar to helton, but with a much flatter peak.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:33
I don't really see a Hall-caliber peak yet
First Base (42nd):
43.1career WAR |33.47yr-peak WAR |38.2JAWS |4.5WAR/162
  Average HOF 1B (out of 23):
    65.5 career WAR | 42.1 7yr-peak WAR | 53.8 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162
3:36
he's got some low-hanging fruit in his 7-year score (seasons of 3.7 and 3.3 WAR plus two of 4.7) so if he gets a few 5-win seasons he'll get a lot of traction.
Obi
3:36
Hello there, why was Ohtani on prospect lists, but Suzuki was not? And I think Akiyama and Kim as well but I could be remembering those two wrong
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
this is better directed at Eric. Some outlets prefer not to rank NPB imports, but I suspect Suzuki not being signed is the real reason he didn't make Top 100 lists.
Abe
3:38
Twins shock the world and get Correa?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
Kevin Correia, coming out of retirement at age 41 to throw a few more innings for the team would be a pretty big shock. Carlos Correa signing with the Twins is probably something closer to an impossibility.
Ben
3:39
How likely is it that Correa goes to the Orioles and, if he does, how much of a difference does it make?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
Not likely, but even if he did, our planet is in dire shape due to long-term climate change.
Matt
3:40
Xander would move to 2B before Story, right? I know Xander is the veteran in Boston, but he isn't great at SS. I think the metrics are extremely generous to him.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:43
at this stage in spring, they're almost certainly not moving Bogaerts to a new position for a newcomer, particularly if the word is that the newcomer is flexible to a short-term position change
Pat
3:45
Ever been to Coronado Island. The Mrs & I are heading there in May. Fun stuff to do there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
I have not! Something to look into
Geno
3:45
Thoughts on the Winker Suarez trade?
AvatarJay Jaffe
Tam
3:47
What do you think the odds are the Ms sign Story now that he’s apparently willing to change positions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:47
maybe they're one of the mystery teams but I wouldn't count on them landing him
Guest
3:48
If Xander has a few more 4/5 WAR seasons, is he on a HOF path? He's sitting on 1200+ hits with about 30 WAR and this is going to be his age 29 season.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:49
His bad defensive numbers have always been a drag on his value and so I'm not sure he's really well-positioned (no pun intended) for a run unless he starts putting up 6-win seasons
Shortstop (69th):
    29.1 career WAR | 28.1 7yr-peak WAR | 28.6 JAWS | 4.2 WAR/162
  Average HOF SS (out of 23):
    67.7 career WAR | 43.2 7yr-peak WAR | 55.5 JAWS | 4.9 WAR/162
Leo
3:50
Who would you rather be a fan of right now: Reds or Rockies?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:50
famine. or pestilence.
3 and 2
3:50
Do you like what the Mets have done?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:51
in the grand scheme of things, rarely, but they've had a good winter and look like the team to beat in the NL East IF — and this is a load-bearing IF — deGrom can stay healthy
Guest
3:51
I'm a Red Sox fan who thinks Yankees fans are being a little pessimistic about Josh Donaldson. He's still a top hitter in baseball according to batted ball data and he's a solid fielder. What do you think? I know he's old, but he's still a great player.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:51
I like the move more than most but I liked it more before they signed Rizzo.
Guest
3:52
I'm surprised Pujols hasn't been signed yet. His march to 700 home runs would drum up a lot of ticket sales for a team. What do you think?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:52
I don't think it's gonna sell all that many tickets because he's not going to play regularly, nor should he. He's lefty-only, maybe getting 2-3 starts a week, and so it's hard to market that.
david
3:52
is there going to be a third  article on s-jaws for even more modern pitchers like Johan? Apologies if I missed it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:53
Yes, but the labor situation, the transaction flood, and season preview stuff is all ahead of it in the queue. Might be awhile before I get to pick up the series.
Clay
3:55
Otani was 23 when he came to the US four years ago. Suzuki is 27 (a month younger than Otani).
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:56
And Ohtani had already been an MVP in the Pacific League. Much bigger talent, sure. But MLB considers both rookies and therefore most prospect rankings do as well
3 and 2
3:56
Expectations from Seiya? Maybe you discussed this somewhere. thanks for doing this.
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