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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/19/21
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Pumpsie Green
2:52
True or false: the Red Sox will have zero guaranteed contracts in 18 months once Sale and Bogaerts opt out, and ownership will be content to subsist on stylized-B hat sales alone.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
False, mainly because I'm highly skeptical Sale will opt out after 2022 at this juncture unless he's flat-out dominating, which is rare for post TJ guys, but also because I don't think this current curb on spending will last if the Sox don't at least make the playoffs in 2021.
clh
2:56
Hi Jay,  Dylan Cease - does he take the next step to being a #1 or #2 starter or is he just a tantalyzing #4 or #5 guy with command issues?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
I'm not a prospect guy and Cease isn't a prospect but i think we're a long ways from the day when he looked like a 1/2 in the making. I think mid-rotation guy if he irons out his command issues. Dan sees him as a breakout candidate but I don't believe he's talking ace-hood https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2021-breakout-candidates-pitch...
WinTwins0410
2:59
Jay, on the small-committee HoF ballot in December (assuming they go forward with one), Jim Kaat will be on the ballot.  I know you'd prefer several guys from his era ahead of Kaat (Minoso and Dick Allen), but if Kaat does get in (along with, say, Allen), would you be upset?  I mean like Harold Baines-level upset?  (I'm asking this totally seriously.). And would Kaat's induction provoke an outrage among the advanced stats community?  Beyond that, would Kaat's induction make it easier or harder for Tommy John to get in via a future small committee, do you think?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
At least before he went all grumpy-old-man when it came to the modern game I liked Kaat more as an announcer than as a candidate. I'd be frustrated by his election ahead of Allen or Minoso but happy for the guy, just as I was for Baines — just not willing to tell anybody that the Committee got it right.
A Boy Named Yu
3:01
Which seasonal milestone happens next: 74 homers, .400 AVG, or 100 SB?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
74 HR, Juan Soto, 2023. I'm calling my shot.
Mike Ortman
3:02
You didn't include Machado, Arenado, or Altuve in your top ten above.  Where would they sit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
They've all got serious work still to do. Machado is heading into his 10th year and as I see it has 4 HOF-caliber seasons under his belt (5.0 WAR or more); he has a 36.1 peak score where 43.1 is the standard. Arenado is heading into his ninth year and has five such seasons and a 37.5 WAR7. but he's also about a year older than Manny and coming off injury questions and a stat-altering career move.
3:07
Altuve has 3 such seasons, four if you count his 4.8-WAR 2018 but he's also had more injuries than either of the other two, has below-average defensive metrics, and the stigma of being involved in the Astros' scandal, which may or may not matter in 15 years when he's eligible but certainly colors the perceptions of him right now
Scott
3:07
Please rank these teams in the order of who is more likely to surprise and win their division:  Reds, Phillies, Royals  thanks!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
Phillies.I have a tendency to overrate them and to like Joe Girardi more than most, but I think most of the pieces are there. Tough division to win, though.
gabriel
3:09
any thoughts on how we'll look back on the catcher framing era for HoF purposes? it's looking like there will only be around 15 years (2008-2023) of knowing how to quantify framing before the electronic strike zone inevitably makes the skill irrelevant
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
I don't think the electronic strike zone is that inevitable yet but I don't see how we can avoid granting the players who were good at framing their due given that we've got multiple versions of the metrics that tell us there's huge value to be gained there.
A Boy Named Yu
3:11
Favorite baseball video game if you have one?  The Show is hard to beat but I had a PC game called Earl Weaver Baseball back in the day that I spent entirely too much of my preteens and teenage years playing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
I played a bit of Earl Weaver but it was Strategic Simulations' Computer Baseball that was really my baseball laboratory. Wrote about it for a blogathon at Michael Clair's Old Time Family Baseball several years ago https://oldtimefamilybaseball.com/post/73880788748/the-basement-tapes-...
Jack C
3:13
Jay - would you like to play 2020 Strat-O-Matic sometime in Brooklyn? Stats simulated to the 162 game season. You can be the Yankees.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
I appreciate the offer! Would love to try sometime (I barely played any Strat) when it's safe.
Pat
3:14
How is the one player from your childhood who "seemed" like a HOF'er to you at the time, but, in retrospect wasn't close? Mine is Steve Garvey. Excelled in the baseball card categories, was a huge name, constant post-season presence with some big post-season moments, had a fair amount of hardware. (Also, my mom thought he was handsome)..but, when you look at it, he never walked, mid range power that eroded in his early 30's & his fielding was way overrated (couldn't throw at all)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
Assuming you mean "who" not "how" I think it's Garvey for me, too. Wrote a bit about my personal attachment to him as part of his HOF case a couple years ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/steve-garvey-is-modern-baseball-ballots-ba...
Dave
3:15
Let’s say Bryce Harper puts up a few more statistically impressive seasons before age takes its toll, but never replicates his 2015 numbers or makes it to a World Series. Hall of Fame?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
I think he's got a good chance because of his early start and potential to really rack up the counting stats even if he never approaches MVP level agian
mmddyyyy
3:16
Do you keep score when you watch a game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
When I go to a ballpark I almost always keep score unless I've got the kid (now 4 1/2, obv. hasn't been in over a year) with me. Only a fool would try to pull that off.
Jason
3:17
Trevor Rosenthal's projection's are super doubtful that he can throw strikes. Do you share that skepticism? Wasn't it a health issue in '19 and now that he's healthy he should be back to competent control?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
I'm not tremendously worried. I see last year as more in line with what he was able to do the last time he was healthy in 2017
Concrete fan
3:18
Is Greinke real about his 10 HR + SB goal? And do you expect him to push his next team to use him as a pinch runner or hitter? (Assuming universal DH in 2022)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:20
Greinke is as real as it gets when it comes to that stuff, and he only needs 1 more of each. I can see a team using him in a PH/PR capacity in an emergency situation but not much more than that, even if he's lobbying.
3:22
Speaking of Greinke, I highly recommend this https://theathletic.com/2414947/2021/03/12/zack-greinke-catchers-oral-... and need to go back and catch up with the previous entries of the series. As I wrote in a tweet last week, the stories about him amplify his status as a legend and will help a Hall of Fame case that may not jump out as immediately obvious (though I think his milestones will be solid by the time he retires).
10/10 baby!
Concrete fan
3:23
(Long shot) Does Matt Chapman have a shot at the HOF?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
He banked two incredible seasons but he's also got only 4 seasons played and is already heading into his age-28, so I'm highly skeptical
Joe W
3:23
Hey Jay, I've seen Kimbrel crack the top 10 in multiple closer rankings. Seems insane to me. Hasn't this guy been terrible for 2 years now? Do you think he finishes the season as the Cubs closer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:27
I think he's at best a middle-of-the-pack closer these days. Maybe he can put it all together again after a couple wilderness years, but if he can't, it's not hard to imagine him being bad enough to again lose the closer job.
Sonni Cox
3:28
What is your viewpoint on Jimmy Rollins' HOF chances? Do you believe that the Bonds/Clemens/A-Rod/David Ortiz presence on the ballot will hurt Rollins' chances of getting at least 5% next year? And, what do you think Rollins' chances of eventually getting in are?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
"[I]t’s difficult to see Rollins gaining traction; he made only three All-Star appearances and ranks just 30th among shortstops in JAWS, ahead of only two Hall of Famers, Phil Rizzuto and Rabbit Maranville (not to mention Vizquel).
3:30
and no, the circus around the other guys you mention won't help him, in part because they will help to fill the ballot up without getting anywhere. Maybe he scrapes through like Torii Hunter did but I doubt he gets much further
Gashouse Gorilla
3:30
Interested in your response regarding Kimbrel and Jansen.  Recognizing WAR is difficult metric to evaluate relievers, do you see an emerging standard of what would be considered HOF-worthy excellence, and what about multi-innings pitchers in light of new usage
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