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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/19/21
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AvatarJay Jaffe
3:32
I use the average of bWAR, WPA, and WPA/LI for my HOF reliever deliberations these days. Kimbrel barely grazes the leaderboard:
3:33
It's kind of hard to flesh out a standard for that but I'm open-minded enough to believe Wagner belongs in, and if so, then Joe Nathan's got a case
but I'm much less sold on Gordon
linh
3:34
realistic outlook for ian anderson this year and next?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
I imagine he'll land in the 120-150 range in innings this year, with the Braves working to keep him available for October. I don't think he's going to go 1.95 ERA/2.54 FIP but low 3.00s seems like a good best-case scenario.
Puster Bosey
3:36
I was meandering through pages when I happened upon something a little strange-- Ryan Doumit appears to be have been nearly impossibly bad at defending, putting up -60 (!!) runs defensively in 2008, en route to -3.4 fWAR despite a 123 wRC+. Is there a bug here or was Doumit really THAT bad?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:36
I'm afraid he was really that bad.
3:38
it's kind of sad, really
Dan
3:38
Will we indefinitely have an underrepresentation of pitchers born after Roger Clemens but before Justin Verlander? Did we really have less HOF worthy pitchers for a generation or will we reexamine the transition of pitcher usage and find a dozen more people worthy at some point in the future?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
Well, I think we've got at least 5 SP in the pipeline in Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer and Sabathia, but as to what comes after that, it's an open question; maybe deGrom and Sale stay healthy long enough, maybe standards shift enough that Felix makes the cut. The problem is that the drop-off from those guys to the next tier is kind of steep. I tried very hard to stay open-minded about Pettitte, Buehrle, and Hudson — to mention a few current candidates — but I can't really see them as HOFers, though when I wonder who active will have their not-quite-HOF careers, I'm not even sure who's that good.
tina
3:43
what do you make of the rays offense? What is Randy's realistic upside -- will he cross 5 WAR or even drive in more than 90 runs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:46
I'm a bit concerned, though perhaps more concerned about their rotation. Maybe Arozarena is a 5-win guy but right now he'd stick out like a sore thumb in that lineup until Franco arrives, though maybe B. Lowe is as good as he looked last year.
3:48
Ok folks, I have to wrap it up. A programming note: I'll be on vacation next Friday and probably involved in an Opening Day chat the week after that, so it might not be for a couple more weeks that we're in this space.

Just got word that my brother and his wife got vaxed, too! Happy Friday to you all and here's to turning the corner on this miserable saga (the pandemic, not my chat).
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