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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/2/20

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Jay Jaffe

12:01

Good afternoon and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. I'm still in the midst of snarfing down a Hanco's chicken banh mi, so bear with me for a few minutes while the queue fills with questions. In the meantime, I wrote about the Mets' mismatched set of outfielders today https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mets-have-a-mismatched-outfield-once-a...

Gavin Electrolux

12:04

When and how will we know if the Yankees' hiring of Eric Cressey has made a difference? So far the IL candidates like a repeat of 2019 (Severino, Judge, Stanton, Paxton).

Jay Jaffe

12:06

I'd give it a year while also being mindful that the impression we get publicly based solely on results may not square with what goes on privately, since we often don't know the whole story from a medical standpoint. Yes, the Yankees are off to a rough start that resembles 2019, but I don't think we can assume there's any connection between Severino's TJ and the new guy, and we should wait to see how quickly those guys get back to playing before making any assumptions

12:08

Re Mets OF, if the Mets were inclined to trade for a true 2-way CF, are there any that might be available by trade?

Jay Jaffe

12:11

Maybe not without a time machine. They missed out on Starling Marte, who would have been a decent fit (though last year's metrics offer cause for concern), and I don't think any amount of begging will get the Mariners to reverse the Kelenic/Diaz/Cano trade. I do wonder if they could get Harrison Bader from the Cardinals.

Jerome

12:11

The Red Sox and A's have the same Win Projection right now (86). Who do you think wins more games? Depth Charts give the A's ~3.7 more WAR as a team, but Base Runs formula likes the Sox's lineup construction.

Jay Jaffe

12:12

I'll go with the A's, as I really like their young pitching

Slew

12:12

Why doesn't Cleveland just tear it down? Hanging on so the team can win mid to upper 80's doesn't seem to make a lot of sense.

Jay Jaffe

12:15

They have 4 straight seasons of 91 victories or more, 3 of them with playoff appearances, and club control over an excellent core of young, affordable starting pitching. I don't see any reason to punt just yet, particularly in a division that has 2 terrible teams to beat up on.

Sonny

12:15

The Red Sox offseason didn't make competitive sense anyway, but how much worse is it now that NYY injuries and Snell's status make the division look less daunting?

Jay Jaffe

12:19

The projections say that the reports of their competitive demise are overstated, but I think the separator between them and their AL East rivals is depth. Losing Severino is a bummer but the Yankees have a wealth of young pitchers to sort through to replace him, and the Rays can hope that between Brendan McKay and Brent Honeywell they get positive contributions. I don't think the same is true if the Red Sox were to lose Chris Sale.

Juicy the Baseball

12:19

Will the balls fly out of the park at the same rate this year?

Jay Jaffe

12:19

I'm skeptical we'll see another record-level season given the scrutiny the issue has received.

Dave

12:20

Is there any popular player whose game you do not like aesthetically?

Jay Jaffe

12:22

Is public persona considered part of the aesthetic consideration? Because if so yes, and i'll let you use your imagination on that one.

Rodriguo Cavalcante

12:22

Love you content Jay. Thoughts on Dustin May long term, do you see him as a frontline starter?

Jay Jaffe

12:24

Thanks for the kind words. From what I understand he's more likely to be a 2 or 3 than a true ace, but I'm certainly looking forward to seeing him develop.

Johnny

12:27

Think Freddie Freeman gets extended before opening day?

Jay Jaffe

12:28

I haven't hear anything towards that end. He's signed through 2021 so I don't sense any urgency and it wouldn't surprise me if it takes until next winter/spring to get something done.

Beeks

12:28

Someone asked a similar question last week regarding Markakis, but does Starlin Castro have any HoF case if he manages to reach 3,000 hits?

Jay Jaffe

12:31

As with Markakis, the base of his skills is narrow enough that I don't see him getting that close. He's got 1,617 hits and one season out of the last five apiece with 2+ WAR or a wRC+ above 101, is already a below-average baserunner, and is average at best afield. I was very surprised the Nationals signed him instead of retaining Dozier; if he slips much more, he's a bench guy

Lash

12:31

Do you see any potential in the redbirds acquiring Arenado at the deadline? What do you think the price will be / will it be worthwhile for the birds?

Jay Jaffe

12:32

Unless Arenado and the Rockies or the team acquiring him figure out a way to neuter the opt out, I don't see any way he'll be traded, and even if they do that, I think doing so in-season is highly unlikely because it's going to take a lot of negotiation

El Tiante

12:33

Pick your poison: The Wilpons or James Dolan.

Jay Jaffe

12:33

Hemlock

Them

12:33

You mentioned Starling Marte having been a potential good fit for the Mets in CF, but that doesn't take things like acquisition cost into account. Given what the Pirates were supposedly asking for (and, taking his declining CF metrics into account), do you honestly fault them for not going after him more seriously? It's easy to talk about CF being a hole, it's a lot harder to find legit 2 way solutions. STL will be competing with NYM for a playoff spot, do you think they would give up Bader without charging a serious premium?

Jay Jaffe

12:36

I never said Marte or Bader would be acquired for free; nobody's giving away talent for nothing. But I do think it's worth taking a shot at upgrading the Mets defense with a proper center fielder, because they have a metric shit-ton of corner bats who are never going to fit that bill.

Bader's stock is down in STL but they're not going to tread him like a dorm room couch and leave him on the curb. A good trade is going to sting a little for both sides, and it involves some risk, but the idea is that you give up quality to get quality.

brad

12:36

Jay with attendance going down already, how worried/prepared is baseball for the corona virus and people choosing or being told not to attend public events with lots of people ie, baseball games....

Jay Jaffe

12:37

I don't get the sense that Manfred and company are any more prepared to deal with this than our current regime is.

lopez

12:38

Jay, what do you think about Tampas OF shenanigans. I have a feeling they are going crazy with platoons, could we see mid game changes after LHP starter come out, where the entire OF changes? I see them getting reslly creative with their matchups

Jay Jaffe

12:42

It's interesting, for sure, but the problem with a wholesale "line change" — like the Dodgers were using during the 2018 postseason — is that most relievers are going to last only an inning or two. So I think Cash will be selective about when he deploys his alternatives, focusing on higher-leverage situations or ones that play to a given option's strengths. If you think your pitcher is going to give up a potentially wall-scraping homer, you get Kiermaier into the game ;-)

12:42

Have you ever considered using a 5-year peak for catcher JAWS? Given the shortness of catchers' careers, might it give us a fairer view of the greats?

Jay Jaffe

12:44

I haven't studied what a 5-year option would look like there but I don't see the current rankings using 7-year peak to be particularly out of whack with other notions of who's great there. The top 2 catchers by JAWS outside the Hall are Joe Mauer and Thurman Munson, both of whom had short careers behind the plate, and the same can be said for the next two, Gene Tenace and Buster Posey.

Sadaharu Oh

12:44

Who was your favorite player growing up?

Jay Jaffe

12:47

There were a number of Dodgers position players who at any given time I might have called my favorite - Davey Lopes, Ron Cey, Reggie Smith, and Pedro Guerrero — with the latter probably the most enduring since I saw him the most, but even he took a back seat to Fernando Valenzuela, the true difference-maker in their ongoing power struggle with the Yankees.

I've always found it rather bittersweet that the 1988 team won without both, having traded Guerrero away for John Tudor in mid-August and shut down Valenzuela due to injury .

NihilistDuda

12:47

Kind of surprised no one has brought up Elvis Andrus and his chase to 3000 hits. 31y/o, 1700+ hits. Seems like he has at least a chance, no?

Jay Jaffe

12:48

1723 hits through his age-30 season but back-to-back seasons with a 76 wRC+ and less than 1.5 WAR, so again, I think you're assuming way too much about the shelf life if things slip even the tiniest bit more

Derek

12:49

I really want to see Mike Trout in the playoffs... Is there ANYHTING the Angels can realistically do at this point to bolster their pitching staff?

Jay Jaffe

12:50

I liked the Stripling/Pederson deal for them but their problems are bigger than that if Canning is down. IMO, signing Strasburg or Cole would have made more sense for them than Rendon, but it takes two to tango.

Matt

12:50

Do you anticipate most teams allowing their top minor leaguers to play in the Olympics this summer?

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