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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/2/20
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:50
Right now I don't think we're even sure there will still be an Olympics due to the Coronavirus outbreak. I'd imagine teams will have to think long and hard about their willingness to let their players participate if there's extra risk involved.
Matt
12:50
Over/under 2.5% chance that the Orioles win the AL Pennant while Peter Angelos owns the team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
Under, particularly given that he's 90 years old.
Nick
12:52
Who has a better shot at the relevant milestone: Edwin Encarnacion and 500 HRs?  Or Starlin Castro and 3000 hits?  And if they both reach the milestones, who gets more HOF votes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Encarnacion is at 414 homers and still an above-average player, so there's no doubt in my mind that he's the better bet than a below-average player who's just past the halfway point to a milestone. I don't see EE as a HOFer but he won't get shut out, whereas Castro is always going to be looked on as a disappointment for failing to live up to the promise of his early seasons
Beeks
12:54
Do you think we will ever see a 300-game winner again?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Yes
12:56
I think Verlander, who has 225 wins, has a decent shot, and I won't count out either Scherzer (170 through age 34 but the stuff is still elite) or Kershaw (169 through 31) out yet.
Them
12:56
Didn't mean to make you defensive- it's just that it seems easier to fault the Mets for not having a better CF than to actually suggest a reasonable solution. I appreciate that you suggested a couple of options. For me, cost/benefit-wise, Marte wasn't worth it. Not sure Bader represents much of an upgrade. And who, among the corner OF, has particularly high trade value right now? As imperfect as the situation is, it does also mean the team has a lot of depth and options to play with in the OF, doesn't it? And some upside potential with Nimmo and Ces returning from injuries and Smith and Davis gaining more experience in the OF, Schwarber-style?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:57
not going to dig into the full question now at the expense of ignoring others but let's also remember this isn't a new problem — it's been one ever since Cespedes played himself off the position a few years ago.
Honeynut Berrios
12:58
how was the banh mi?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
Very good. Hanco's isn't quite as good as Nicky's Vietnamese (RIP) but they're still here and a regular staple of my work-from-home life
puddle
12:58
Justin Turner has begun to show signs of age with his defensive performance and his need for regular rest. This is also the last year of his 4-year deal. I can't imagine him going elsewhere - the org LOVE him and the feeling is reciprocated - but I can't imagine he's starting much longer. Do you think both parties are interested in a reduced bench role?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
I think both sides will have to wait and see. He's probably best thought of as a guy who can give you 120-130 games at a high quality, but somebody who needs a good backup
Nick
1:00
Regarding 300 wins: Do you think MLB will ever change the definition of the "win" statistic to allow the official scorer to reward a starter with a win in circumstances in which a reliever might otherwise have received the win?  (E.g., the starter pitches 7 shutout innings but his team scores the winning run only in the 9th inning.)  That seems both fairer than the current system, and a change that might make 300 wins more attainable for future players.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:01
I think that if they were going to make such a change it would have been done a long time ago. MLB is obviously very reluctant to mess with precedent (see the controversy over potentially vacating the 2017 World Series) and the number of people who care about the W is dwindling
Guille
1:01
Do you think any replacement Yankees hit their way into a starting job, kinda like Urshela las year? I'm thinking Wade as a Zobrist type all around player and Ford in 1B/DH (Not to mention Tauchman who already looks like a lock with all the outfield injuries)
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
I've never seen anything out of Wade that suggests the Zobrist comp is a fair one; the guy has a 53 wRC+ through 241 PA and I'm not sure he'd ever be an option for an extended period. Ford hit quite well in Voit's absence and I could see him usurping the job if the latter is injured again or struggles.
GSon
1:05
Zach Plesac appears to be taking another leap forward. Why does it seem the Indians have a special ability to locate a pitcher and truly develop them?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
they have a great player development system that uses scouting, data, and an emphasis on collaboration. This, from Zack Meisel in December, is well worth the read https://theathletic.com/1302504/2019/12/03/the-pitching-whisperers-the...
Sandy Koufax
1:06
True or false: my peak years were the best of any lefty hurler ever, bar none, end of story.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:08
I'd go with Lefty Grove dominating the AL in a hitter's era. He led the league in strikeouts in each of his first 7 seasons and at one point led in bWAR seven times in an eight-year span. That trumps Koufax, IMO.
Johnny Roseboro
1:08
Assuming the Yankees get Hicks, German and Big Maple back as scheduled, which team is better, the Dodgers or the Yankees?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:09
I think the Dodgers have the greater depth and fewer question marks, but they also get to play in the easier division/league so it's tough to truly tell
Matt
1:09
Phillies had Seranthony Dominguez's fastball at 94 mph.  Considiering his average in 2019 was 97, and he hit 100 in 2018, is there cause for concern, or is it plausible he's still building up strength?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
You're talking about a February reading from a guy coming back from injury. I'd hold off on the alarm bells until you learn more
mt
1:10
Who's the Angels' short term replacement for Canning? Andriese?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:12
We have Sandoval ahead of Andrese on the depth chart but I don't think that's definitive.
Omar
1:12
Hey Jay. What are your thoughts on Brendan McKay. Last years stats were awful but the peripherals don't look as bad. Do you see him as a starter for TB to begin the season, or a bullpen/multi-inning relief role? And what about long term?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:15
Like everybody else he struggled to keep the ball in the park last year (1.47 HR/9) and he could stand to trim his walk rate a bit but he missed plenty of bats. He's still #17 on our prospect list and I don't see any reason to be down on him other than the fact that he'll probably carry a reduced workload this year, so bullpen or the minors to start the season is possible, but I imagine he's a rotation staple by next year.
Bobby
1:15
What can Buster Posey do to avoid hitting into frequent double plays?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:18
Hit the ball harder and in the air more often. His GB% progression the past 3 seasons has gone 43.6%, 47.0%, 49.0%, his exit velos have dropped a bit each year in that span, and he's not getting any faster. Wouldn't surprise me if there's a physical element to it, so I don't know how reversible it is.
Fresh Basil
1:20
How do you see the A"s second base situation playing out? Someone is getting cut, seems like they all would be claimed quickly when it happens.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:21
My best guess is that Mateo is the one who winds up being traded, with Barreto and Kemp both making the roster and the former given first shot at the starting job.
Tyler
1:23
Who are you voting for in 2020?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
Scott Rolen, Barry Bonds, and Roger Clemens will be on my Hall of Fame ballot when I get it in December, for sure.
1:24
Ok folks, I have a full plate of to-dos today, including some serious gazing at depth charts, so I'm going to mosey along. Thanks for the good questions, and I'm sorry that I can't tackle them all or write another 2,000 words about the Mets' center field situation on top of what I wrote today. See you next week!
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