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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/26/24
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:43
it was a split squad. Some Yankees played the Pirates and Mets, and some played Diablos Rojos
Blake Snell
2:44
Why do I look so much like Sid from "Ice Age"?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:46
I always think of Cletus the Slack-Jawed Yokel.
Tony Baloney
2:46
What do you make of the HoF chances of todays best late-career closers, Jansen and Kimbrel?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
Wrote about them last summer. Both need to keep their gigs as closer and add some bulk to their career numbers, if nothing else. I think Kenley is in slightly better shape as his recent years have had far less variance. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2023-progress-rep...
Sanford
2:48
Is it me or is it kind of silly the Guardians aren't just sticking Gimenez at SS, who's pretty clearly their best defensive option in the org at that position? I get they're trying to see what they have in Rocchio or Arias, but why not give them run at a less demanding position (2B) and let Gimenez maximize his value?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
I tend to agree, especially given Giménez's big defensive metrics, that his play would translate well enough to justify the move to the harder position
Guest
2:50
Does Stanton really have much of a chance at all for the HOF at this point? Unless he somehow produces several huge late-career seasons?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:52
Obviously his chances aren't what they used to be but he's an MVP (and MVP runner-up) with five All-Star appearances and a shot at 500 homers. Particularly given the dearth of recent 500-HR guys with clean reputations vis-à-vis PEDs, he stands out... if he gets back to being productive. That bat speed is still impressive, when he connects.
Jordan
2:52
Who has the better year overall Evan Carter or Wyatt Langford?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
I just put Langford down for my AL Rookie of the Year winner in our staff picks. Depending upon how you feel about my ability to reverse-jinx players, you have an answer there.
Drive Caminero
2:54
Without naming names, are there any teams that you viscerally do not like writing about, whether it be because you have major values disagreements with how they operate or the team plays/manages the game?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:55
Some teams I'm less up to speed on because they've been mediocre for so long that I'm less familiar with their players and their organizations, but I think it's important to try to take an objective look at whoever I'm writing about.
2:56
(the Department of Redundancy Department sent that one back for more editing)
wheelhouse
2:56
people seem to have wildly different estimations of what the yankees can and cannot afford to do/not do than the front office themselves have had
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
The Yankees have unparalleled resources given the value of their brand, and yet their ownership has tended to be risk averse when it comes to free agents in recent years, and they've cost themselves by not taking the plunge. They're running the game's third-highest payroll and yet it feels like they're not doing enough. It's a tough position to be in because particularly if they're not winning, the approach satisfies no one.
Woeba
2:59
If Anthony Rizzo can recover from concussion issues and post ~10 more WAR over the course of his career, could get get in to the HOF on the McGriff track?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:01
That wouldn't be enough. If he's just a 50ish-WAR first baseman I don't see what makes him stand out over, say, Norm Cash or Mark Teixeira
Idiotic Failson
3:02
Since the White Sox are already rebuilding, can/should the Yankees look at Moncada?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:03
Not unless the White Sox are eating a ton of his remaining salary ($24M this year, $25M/$5M buyout next), particularly given how bad/injured he's been the last couple of seasons.
Jason
3:04
With the recent additions by the Padres and Giants as well as the injuries to E-Rod and Sewald, do you anticipate the Diamondbacks struggling to make it back to the postseason this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:05
<glances nervously at his entry in the staff picks spreadsheet>
3:07
I picked the D-backs and Giants as the NL #2 and #3 Wild Cards, leaving the Padres aside. All three are within 0.2 wins of each other in our Playoff Odds win projections so it's a total toss-up, but I think youth is on their side
Mark
3:08
Seems like Torres leads off for the Yankees. Do you agree, or do you see someone else (Volpe) in the role this season?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:09
i think Gleyber is a safe and sensible choice to lead off. Volpe had a better rookie season than his .209 AVG would lead you to believe but he's obviously got to do better when it comes to contact and getting on base to justify moving up to #1. I think he gets there eventually but maybe not this year.
Michael
3:09
With the exception of his recognition for durability (incredibly justified, maybe even underrated), is Nolan Ryan overrated, underrated, or appropriately rated in your opinion?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
Historically, I think he's been underrated to a great degree, mainly due to the .500ish won-loss record
Tony
3:11
NL/AL ROY thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
I went with Langford and Yamamoto — yes, he's got a leg up on the competition given that he's not a "true" rookie but he's eligible for the award, and — rough Korea start notwithstanding — he comes into the season with a higher floor than Jackson Chourio or Jackson Merrill or the other options.
John Olerud's Helmet
3:14
Good Afternoon Mr Jay! Just curious if you caught Chris Rose's interview with Albert Belle awhile back? He definitely came off as a sweet fatherly type guy the opposite of his playing days for sure! Do you ever see a path for him to get to the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:15
No. I hope he's in a better place now than he was two decades ago but I think Belle's short career and numerous ugly incidents doomed his Hall of Fame case.
3:16
(I did not catch the interview, tbc)
Sanford
3:16
Obviously there's a lot of #discourse around lowering HOF standards for SPs (or at the very least modifying/reframing, thanks to S-JAWS). Aside from the Big 4 who deserve to get in by any standard, do you think this eventual lowering of standards will lean more towards a) longer career accumulators—e.g. guys like Buerhle, Pettitte, Hamels, or b) towards guys with worse counting stats but much higher peaks—e.g. deGrom, Sale, Felix?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:18
I think that's one of the hardest things about this reframing, because there's not a ton of crossover between those two types; Buehle and Pettitte, for example, had very little in the way of Cy-caliber seasons, and the guys you name who did have 'em will fall so short career-wise.
3:21
I think there's room for both but it's figuring out who are the outliers within those groups most worthy of recognition. As I wrote in relation to Corey Kluber recently, the crux of the whole HOF SP standards situation is that if we decide a run like Kluber's 2014–18 is worthy — or for that matter a lengthy career like those of Pettitte and Buehrle, then there are literally dozens of pitchers with similarly impressive runs, and logistically I don't think there's a way to honor an equitable share of them.
sliptoad
3:21
In terms of HOF chances do you think it's easier to be Tucker who will likely accumulate more WAR while being a top-5/10 in the league at their position or as Yordan who's unquestionably the best or second best at the position, but will probably rack up lower WAR totals thanks to DHing? Yordan's definitely the bigger star, but he's gonna make less money than Tucker in all likelihood.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:23
I think it's easier for Tucker, who has the broader base of skills (i.e., good defense and baserunning). Alvarez will have to be the second coming of Big Papi to get to Cooperstown, but... he's been a total flop in 2 of the 3 World Series he's played in.
Sodo Mojo
3:23
I know spring training stats are relatively useless but for a guy like Haniger who has been perpetually broken does a strong spring raise your expectations on his performance?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
In general, I think it's reassuring to see that a player is healthy in spring training after such a mess of a season, injury-wise, but in Haniger's case, his long track record of sparse attendance tempers that.
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