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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 3/26/24
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Skye
3:24
are you changing your value on Ohtani? Ive got a few hours to change my mind on his keeper status. I have a few others solid options\
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:25
I think you'd have to be wearing a tinfoil hat to let this situation affect your valuation of his performance.
FANGRAPHSQuestion
3:25
Hey Jay, I'm wondering how injuries factor in Playoff Odds. The Cards for example are getting hammered and so are the Reds and yet their odds haven't changed on the NL Central graph at all to reflect it. Wondered if you knew the answer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:28
The odds are based on projections including playing time, and if they're barely budging, that's a sign that at least projection-wise, there's not a ton of drop-off when it comes to absorbing some of the lost innings/plate appearances for the guys who have gotten hurt. That said, we tend to be pretty conservative when cutting down playing time for what right now doesn't seem to be a season-threatening injury, and the other issue with that is the assumption that there's no drop-off in performance for a guy who's been hurt, when it might very well be the case that he can't be close to 100% even if he's able to come back on an expected timetable.
Ol Hoss
3:29
Does Jordon Montgomery need a start date to effectively ramp up to starter length outings or can he train normally minus whatever coaching or equipment is unavailable to him outside of team facilities?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:30
I imagine that like Blake Snell — who threw a 4-inning sim game shortly before being signed _ he's been throwing enough to be at least partially ramped up, but I'd imagine the earliest we'll see him would be sometime in the back half of April
Robert
3:31
Jordan Walker's fielding just put his teammate on the IL for around 3 weeks. Will he be moved to a different position potentially.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
yikes, I missed that while traveling. Other than DH, though, I'm not sure where else the Cardinals can put him so long as they have Goldschmidt at first base. Walker has the athleticism to be a competent outfielder but needs the reps.
AJ
3:35
Do you think Bumgarner has no chance at the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:38
37 career WAR, had just two 5.0-WAR seasons including offense, won his last game at age 32, last had a double-digit win season at age 26... 2,209 career innings... I know that his 2014 postseason was amazing but that's not gonna be enough.
AJ
3:38
Do you think Curt Flood should be in the Hall?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
Yes, but his case depends on non-performance factors and the system isn't well-designed to even put him in a position for election
Jung Hoo
3:39
Please say something nice about the Giants.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:39
I do like their late-winter aggressiveness, think they got good deals on Chapman and Snell to improve to the point that they're in the thick of the Wild Card hunt.
Peez
3:40
Do you expect any collusion complaints to follow this offseason? Has there been any complaint since Barry Bonds' (which was dismissed)? There was the finding in 1987 resulting in  $280 million payout in 1990 and in 2006, "the owners made a lump-sum payment of $12 million dollars, to be taken from the nearly $70 million dollars in luxury-tax funds then held in reserve by baseball, to settle planned claims of collusive activity following the 2002 and 2003 seasons."
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:40
nothing strong enough to generate a favorable outcome in terms of a grievance
Guest
3:41
Re: Stanton, but also other guys- how much value do you personally place on ASG appearances when evaluating for HOF? To me, given the fan vote, they aren't a particularly objective thing to reward someone for. Stanton's overall WAR feels pretty low - he's at 41.8. He's put up only 3.8 fWAR in the last 5 years (217th among hitters), with 97 HR over that stretch. If he finishes in his late 30s with a HR total in the low 500s and a fWAR below 50, would the 5 ASG and 1 MVP be enough for you to vote for him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:42
It has some value but it's hardly a determining factor. Adrián Beltré was a clear slam dunk Hall of Famer despite having just four All-Star selections, and there's no way on God's green earth I'll vote for Sal Perez, who has eight.
Walker
3:43
What's the likelihood that Betts ends up with more career WAR than Trout?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:43
Trout has over a 20-win edge by bWAR (85.2 vs. 64.8) and is just one year older so I don't see it happening.
Woeba
3:45
When is SP 1-15 getting posted?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:47
OK folks, there are more good questions than I can get to. Thanks for stopping by, and note that I'll be one of the staffers participating in either our 4 pm or 7:30 pm Opening Day chat on Thursday. Until then, don't sprain any ACLs or UCLs, please.
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