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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/31/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first chat of the 2026 regular season.
12:02
It's a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn. Alas, we have no day baseball to accompany this chat; when I'm commissioner, I will mandate a minimum of one day game for every day through at least the first 30 days of the season.
12:03
Anyway, I've got a thing in the pipeline about Chase DeLauter's hot start, which should go up sometime while we're chatting.
12:04
Yesterday, I wrote about the Giants' season-opening offensive futility https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-giants-opened-the-season-by-making-som..., and on Friday I wrote about Jackson Chourio's injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scratch-that-jackson-chourio-lands-on-the-...
and now, on with the show....
Allan
12:04
Incredibly early, but both Murakami and Okamoto have looked quite good so far. Have major league teams been underrating the ability of Japanese hitters to succeed at the MLB level?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
Both Murakami — who like DeLauter homered in each of his first three (regular season) games, joining a select group — and Okamoto are off to strong starts, but I'd suggest pumping the brakes a bit before we jump to any conclusions. While they've each gotten on the board with multiple home runs, for example, Murakami has just a 69% contact rate so far and Okamoto a 53.3% contact rate; those rates are going to stabilize before the players' slash stats will.
12:10
Setting aside the fact that KBO veteran Jung Hoo Lee was born in Japan, the last handful of Japanese-born players to log substantial time in the majors — Matasaka Yoshidia (debut 2023), Seiya Suzuki (2022), Shogo Akiyama (2020) and Yoshi Tsutsugo (2020) did not take MLB by storm, with Suzuki the only one to really live up to high expectations
EvanC
12:10
So is challenge data eventually going to be converted to player value? All this chatter about pitch framing being devalued, but what about challenge value? If a catcher is highly successful as a challenger, that should be quantifiable in terms of value, no?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:12
I believe we'll find a way to incorporate it. And no, with only a couple of challenges per team per game pitch framing isn't going to be devalued. It will change form somewhat — a catcher may be able to deke a hitter into challenging a strike call for example. Mike Petriello recently wrote about what ABS data from the minors told us https://www.mlb.com/news/abs-challenge-system-statistical-breakdown-20...
Kevin
12:12
In your view, what could eliminate an otherwise obvious Hall of Fame-worthy active player from getting your support? An extended plunge into negative WAR value? Some form of cheating? Some form of criminal behavior? Repulsive conduct off the field? Other?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
most likely a PED suspension and/or criminal behavior. Beyond that, it's a case-by-case thing. I did support Carlos Beltrán all the way through his candidacy
War2D2
12:13
Jay! The Cubs have currently been deploying Matt Shaw to (naturally) right field to cover for Suzuki’s absence. He’s a potential gold glove third baseman with a power bat and a 50+ grade hit tool, but the entire Cub infield is locked up for the next 5+ years. Seems like an obvious trade candidate, and sooner than later before his “prospect” pedigree fades and his trade value tanks. Do you think the Twins would be willing to part with Joe Ryan? Or Miami with Alcantara? I can’t help but think the Cubs still need a top of the rotation arm.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
I don't think the Cubs are in a hurry to trade Shaw. They're giving him a run at a multiposition role because injuries happen and days off are needed. Given last year's struggles at the plate, I'm not sure I see him headlining a swap for a big-name starter
WinTwins0410
12:16
Jay, thanks for doing these chats. My question: It’s great news that Bill White is getting the Hall of Fame’s Buck O’Neil award. However, do you think that that honor significantly lessens the likelihood of an Era Committee voting White into the Hall of Fame?  That’s my thought and fear - even as he did well on the last Era Committee ballot covering him. I realize he would be up against some stiff competition in December (correct me if I’m wrong, but aren’t Bruce Bochy and Dusty both up on this December’s ballot?  (Lou Piniella again too)  Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
I'm concerned about the same thing, and yes, the three managers you name are potential candidates for the upcoming Era Committee, and probably more likely to get elected. But this does honor a 92-year-old man while he's still alive to get his flowers, and that counts for something, too.
JR
12:20
The news of an Emerson extension is very interesting. How would you align the Mariners INF, assuming Crawford should be back soon?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
You're better off asking one of the prospect guys, but Crawford and Donovan both have experience at second and third base, in case they believe Emerson should play shortstop once he arrives. Cole Young, their current 2B, didn't hit last year, but he's a 2022 first-round pick and 2025 Top 100 guy so I don't see them giving up on him. Eventually there's probably a trade to clear up the logjam but with just 34 games at Double-A and 9 andTriple-A I don't think they're going to rush Emerson.
ML
12:25
I was listening to Rates and Barrels and Eno and Derek were mentioning that Judge might be one of the bigger winners of the ABS challenge system because his height caused him to get low balls called as strikes more often. It'll be interesting at the end of the year to check which players benefitted more from the new system and why.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:26
yes, Judge has often gotten burned on those below-the-zone pitches, so I agree that he's gonna be one of the big winners with the new ABS
O
12:26
Is Cole Young officially legit?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:29
As noted above, he comes highly recommended based on his draft position and prospect grades. He was a 50-FV guy at #76 entering last season and was up to no. 33 on The Board when he finally graduated, though his rookie season was a dud
Datt Mamon
12:29
What is your favorite overreaction to opening day/first week results?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
i still haven't stopped laughing at former umpire Richie Garcia's tirade about ABS embarrassing umpires given the myriad ways he embarrassed himself during his storied career (the Jeffrey Maier call, the missed strike three by Mark Langston vs. Tino Martinez in 1998 World Series opener, leading the 1999 mass resignation of umpires and then not getting rehired because his performance wasn't up to snuff).
Manny
12:31
Maybe I’m just an optimist…. I don’t see MLB missing games next year. What do you think?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
I've said this before but I believe it will work out — maybe not missing zero games but we'll have a season. A significant work stoppage would absolutely destroy the next wave of television contracts and delay expansion, both of which bring in $$$ for the owners. It would also sully Rob Manfred's legacy, and while most of us will be glad to see him go, he doesn't want a scrubbed season sticking to his shoes à la Bud Selig.
drplantwrench
12:34
can mike trout be back for real? please....?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
I'm not inclined towards prayer but I do have my fingers crossed for him.
Mr. Burrito
12:34
Also, if Sasaki makes it as a starter will the Dodgers shop Glasnow at the deadline? Glasnow is great, but so are 6 thousand lower paid guys in the system…
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:37
The Dodgers aren't going to shop Glasnow or any one of their other high profile starters regardless of what happens to Sasaki. It's all about getting to October for them without overworking anybody and while still having enough healthy starters to get through.

If you're looking for a Dodgers starter who could get traded this year, River Ryan, who's coming back from TJ, or Emmet Sheehan, might be the best bets.
Mr. Burrito
12:37
It’s early to talk about, but will Votto and Utley change the nature of the HOF? And if they get in, will older guys — like the very comparable Reggie Smith — get consideration? By the numbers it might be hard to include high OBP guys like Votto  while saying Smith and Bobby Grich shouldn’t get in.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:40
The thing that people keep forgetting is that the Hall has created such a bottleneck for pre-1980 players that it's nearly impossible to pin your hopes one one getting in unless his candidacy has been well-supported in the past. Hell, we're still waiting for the first Negro Leagues player to get in on the strength of the past two decades of statistical research (Buck didn't get in based on his numbers as a player). Grich and Smith, as one-and-done guys, are basically buried right now.
Guest
12:40
Might we have been sleeping on the Nats? Very young but talented team going from a dinosaur front office and field staff to a Rays/Red Sox superteam, with notable process changes to individual players all over the place through spring and the start of the season - Jake Irvin has his velocity back and a completely different pitch mix that the stuff bots love; Brady House has shown a lot more patience; Cade Cavalli has a new, much more optimal sweeper; Keibert Ruiz has... been demoted to a timeshare; etc
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
There's a fair bit of talent there, and the organization was ripe for a regime change, but I don't think they're ready to contend just yet
Matt
12:44
Who among the biggest surprise hot starting hitters (excepting guys just breaking into the league like Murakami and DeLauter) catch your eye as being *for real*
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:47
I'm extremely hesitant to put much stock in ~4 games worth of numbers. But having said that, a few guys who were not successful last year or have short track records in the majors who have caught my eye thus far beyond the ones you named, and Okamoto: Jordan Walker, Owen Caissie, Matt McLain, Sal Stewart
Oh, and Luis Robert Jr. and that guy Trout.
12:48
that's a pretty haphazard selection mostly from looking at Statcast data from four games. I am not a doctor or a scout, caveat emptor.
Guest
12:49
What’s the minimum number of HRs that would get Stanton in? Is it 500 or would like 485 suffice? And what do you think the odds of him reaching 500 are
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:51
I kinda do think it's 500 or bust for Stanton — but! Since he does have 18 postseason homers to his name, getting to 482 and having "500 combined home runs" might be enough
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