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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/31/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
he's at 454 + 18 right now. I'd call it about 50/50 with the caveat that getting to 500 while going through a replacement-level slog as in 2023–24 could lessen the distinction.
Guest
12:53
Are any current free agents going to play in the majors this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:56
I'd bet Giolito pitches at some point. Michael Kopech if he's healthy. Nestor Cortes, LaMonte Wade, Wilmer Flores, Jose Iglesias... just throwing darts but those are some
Guest
12:57
I saw some discourse on social media yesterday regarding Sal Perez and HOF candidacy based on all his career silverware.  I look at his career numbers and it doesn't look all that close to a HOF'er... your thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
Kenny Lofton
12:58
DeLauter article! Do I belong in the HOF in your humble opinion?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:58
With the elections of Beltrán and Andruw, Lofton is now the highest-ranking eligible CF by JAWS (10th, though Trout is 5th), so yes.
Ben
12:59
After a very rough opening series at home, the Giants had a pretty good day but still only managed 3 runs. I feel like their lineup should not be struggling as much as it is because they do have good players. Is it just a random cold streak or a philosophy/coaching problem?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:00
I still think it's a cold streak but Vitello backtracking on his own motivational efforts and taking the blame for the slow start has me wondering if he understands that talking to 30-year-old multimillionaires is different from talking to 20-year-old college players. We're gonna find out.
Justin
1:00
Can Luis Robert Jr get himself back to 2023 levels? This Mets fan has coveted him for a while and the eye test has had some excellent surprises. For example, he has much better takes on breaking balls than I expected. Any thoughts on how his 26 season will go?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:03
He really needed a change of scenery about as badly as anybody in the game. In addition to their endless losing and skimpy payroll, the White Sox are notoriously behind the times when it comes to analytical stuff, and so they're less likely to help a struggling player adjust or help a good player find a new gear. He's got much better support in Queens, and while I wouldn't pin my hopes on him hitting 38 homers again, I think this will easily be his best season since 2023.
Baseball learner
1:05
True or false: Zym wrote a response in the mailbag about how Trout would only earn 4 WAR the rest of his career so in direct response he will now earn 4 WAR by the All Star break
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:06
I hope it's true. Here's a link to that mailbag, for those of you who are subscribers (and many thanks if you are) https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-march-21-2026/
Proctor 62
1:06
Baseball is in such a great place. I’ve never seen this many prominent people talk about the game. I’ve never heard so many kids talking about it. Every game is incredibly watchable.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:07
Which means it's time for everybody at the league office to put their heads together and fix that. First up, they've screwed up the MLB app on the iPhone by not showing linescores or probable pitchers!
RetireNutting
1:08
Would you agree with the claim that the Pirates are 2 position players (one may very well be Konnor Griffin but can't waste a lineup spot on "The Nicks" and Triolo) and one David Bednar short of being a contender? Why spend $30M to get 2-3 spots away from becoming a good team?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:10
the Pirates certainly strike me as much-improved, and the bar in the NL Central is pretty low. I do think that if they're any good, they'll be active at the deadline to make a push for a playoff spot and in the meantime hope that Triolo, Gonzalez, or Yorke shows enough growth to merit more playing time once Griffin arrives, and that they find their next Bednar.
Big Buckston
1:12
The Nats embarrassing would-be NL contenders on the road in Chicago and Philly is an underrated first few days storyline in my opinion. It's always fun to see a couple of teams with big expectations get caught with their pants down, so to speak, and be humbled by the whims of baseball
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:13
the start of the season should always remind us that we can be surprised — sometimes pleasantly, though sometimes it's not so pleasant
Cube Jockey
1:13
Is the ABS check an immediate answer?  I am assuming the video display is for entertainment purposes?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:14
By the time it's being shown on the video for viewers, the umpire already knows the outcome
1:16
poking around for ABS data, the Statcast leadeboard says Trout is the first player to win three challenges. Gonna send that WAR through the roof!
(I don't know how we would implement a value for this, tbc, but just cutting down on strikes is going to increase a hitter's odds of better outcomes)
1:17
The only player who has lost multiple challenges is Ronald Acuña Jr., who's 1-for-3. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/abs-challenges?sort=n_fails...
Baseball learner
1:18
You think any MLB players read FanGraphs?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:20
we've heard players say they track their metrics and scouting reports here. I doubt they're voraciously reading every article but i'm sure the number of readers among players isn't zero
Tim
1:20
Is Marte on the way to AAA? Looks like Tito has ruined him.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:23
He's in a platoon with Will Benson in right field and has started both games against lefties. He's still learning the outfield so he might lose some playing time and maybe goes down briefly if he struggles out there, but I don't see the Reds as having enough good players that they can afford to give up on him.
JAWS top 10
1:25
When was the last time we had more than one JAWS top ten active at the same position? Judge will be there very soon and Mookie is already there.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:28
Good quesiton. Beltrán (9th) and Trout (5th) had overlapping careers from 2011–17. Scott Rolen and Adrian Beltré at third base overlapped. Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols overlapped, but negative WAR clouds the issue for the former, who's now 11th; I don't have it verified that he was ever in the top 10
1:29
but those are the recent examples that come to mind
Alex
1:29
Do you think there's anything to be learned from looking at batters exit velos (maybe Max EVs) by strike zone quadrant? Makes some intutitive sense to me but I don't think I've seen the idea explored. Sample size issues?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:29
Probably worth a look, but yeah you do get into sample size issues and I'm not sure how predictive/sticky those performances are
1:32
and with that, it's time for me to get some lunch (leftover broccoli beef, probably). No chat from me next week as I will be in Austria, exploring my ancestral roots with my parents and brother/family. Thanks for stopping by, and we'll see you in April!
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