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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/4/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:02
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat!
12:03
My look at the impact of the wave of spring injuries that's hit the Yankees roster, taking out DH Giancarlo Stanton, the MVP of last year's ALCS, and starter Luis Gil, the reigning AL Rookie of the Year, just went live https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-to-stanton-gil-and-lemahieu-will-...
12:04
Yesterday I took a look at the recent sighting of Kyle Schwarber playing first base for the Phillies https://blogs.fangraphs.com/first-sign-of-spring-kyle-schwarber-dabbli...
sliptoad
12:04
If Altuve sticks at left for a few years before becoming a pure DH, does that meaningfully change his HoF outlook? Would it be easier staying as a bad 2B until the DH move, or even moving to DH now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
No, I don't think it changes anything. Regardless of what happens throughout the remainder of his career, he'll wind up having played more games at, and accrued more value at second base than any other position.
12:06
if the changes help him boost his career totals, it's probably a net positive (barring the additional injury risk created by a move). I don't see him doing much DHing in Houston so long as Yordan Alvarez is there, though
Henry Dodger
12:07
Mr. Jay, hello, good man! Every time I check the Red Sox spring box scores Alex Bregman is either at 3B or DH. Odd if they're going to play him at 2B, isn't it?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
I haven't really tuned in to the drama surrounding all this but I believe the Boston Globe's Pete Abraham, who recently wrote, "In the end, Bregman will play third base with Devers getting occasional games there. The alternative would be the Red Sox not putting their best team on the field.” Pete's covered the Sox beat for a long time and presumably has enough reliable sourcing within the organization to back that. https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/02/26/sports/red-sox-roster-predictio...
Bongo
12:09
Among the plethora of baseball narratives every year, do you find yourself gravitating toward particular kinds of stories?  For example, youth movements are always fun, or an in-their-prime star doing amazing things.  For me, I love watching the old guys fighting Father Time one more year.  The lost cause nature of it somehow feels noble to me.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
When you write about baseball 4-5 times a week year-round, you do develop some staples that cover some of that output (e.g., my Hall of Fame coverage, my annual Replacement Level Killers series) and ideas you can fall back upon to help get through the lean times (my Still on the Shelves look at available free agents once camps are open). Beyond that, I suppose I do have certain types of stories that attract me. The potential Hall of Famer off to a slow start or severe injury or rebounding from one is a pretty natural extension of my Hall coverage and fits within the "fighting Father Time" trope that you suggest. The impact of a wave of multiple injuries is a good chance to pull together a handful of our tools — projections, playoff odds, prospect coverage. As I live in New York, I'm a bit more attuned to the ups and downs of its two teams (especially when they're at extremes, or controversial), and as I watch more Dodgers games than any other non-NY teams, I am primed to dig in there.
12:17
Beyond all those — or sometimes within those types — what I really enjoy is figuring out, through reporting, observation, and data, is Why Has This Guy's Performance Changed? New pitch? Bad mechanics? Bad luck relative to Statcast? It's a puzzle I enjoy taking a stab at solving
Adam
12:17
Hi Jay, do you see the Phillies making any in-season or deadline trades if things don’t go their way and if so what kind of trades? The lineup is stacked on paper but the past few years they haven’t been able to get the job done. The only thing I can see them having up their sleeve is some sort of trade down the road
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:19
I didn't get to it in the Schwarber piece, but the Phillies' most obvious avenue for upgrading their lineup is by admitting that Nick Castellanos is a sunk cost and getting a right fielder who isn't guaranteed to wind up on my annual Replacement Level Killers list.
12:22
and if things really go south, they could consider pending free agents like Schwarber, Max Kepler, and Jordan Romano. I'd think trading JT Realmuto is less likely because I suspect they'll try hardest to retain him given the dearth of quality catchers.
ed
12:22
Boone mentioned a late spring potential acquistion for 3b. This has to happen, right??
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
I took a brief glance at their third base picture — a mix of Oswaldo Cabrera, Oswald Peraza, Jorbit Vivas, Pablo Reyes, and the desiccated husk of DJ LeMahieu — within today's piece, noting that they rank 24th on our Depth Charts, driven almost entirely by good defense. Unfortunately for them, Gil's injury makes Marcus Stroman a necessity rather than a luxury, and I think they'd need to offload a big chunk of his $18 million salary in order to add salary for an established third baseman.
12:26
I don't see Nolan Arenado in their future, for as much sense as he might make.
Sam
12:26
If Rose gets taken off the ineligible list, do you think the Veterans Committee will vote him in?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:28
Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. He'd be under the purview of the Era Committee on the 2028 ballot, but given his gambling and other issues I don't think he's a lock for election. If you're at all considering the character clause he's an easy no.

Patrick Dubuque had a very good piece on Rose at Baseball Prospectus today (https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/96841/pardon-me/). This graf struck me as something Manfred might think about:
12:29
Despite the political moment where it seems in vogue to throw accountability out the window and venerate an alleged rapist with other major personal failings, I don't think baseball is so easily going to be pushed around. I hope I'm right.
comish4lif
12:29
I'd expect Pete Rose eventually goes to one of the Veteran's Committees - if he is reinstated by Manfred from his "Permanent Ban."
But, If Pete Rose ends up on the BBHOF writers ballot, can you take a guess at what percentage of writers vote him in? It's definitely NOT 75% is it? Please say under 5%.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:33
The BBWAA ballot rules only apply to players who are at most 15 years removed from their last appearances in the majors. Despite the fact that a faction of writers pitched a hissy fit when the Hall created its rule to not consider players on the permanently ineligible list in February 1991, I don't see the BBWAA and Hall bending on that rule.

As the voters' handling of the candidacies of players such as Bonds, Clemens, and Vizquel who have notable off-field issues alongside their names, it's not hard to find the 20-ish votes it takes to reach 5% on the ballot. It's much, much harder to get to 75% with those black marks, though
Large Rectangle
12:33
Hey Jay, first time long time. Any lingering free agents that you're surprised haven't been signed yet and thoughts on where they may end up landing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:36
i covered this in a two-part series last week for position players (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-i-top-remaining-...) and pitchers (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-ii-top-remaining...). Kyle Finnegan signed with the Nationals the same day the latter piece ran, while Jose Quintana agreed to terms with the Brewers yesterday. Of the rest, the continued availability of Yasmani Grandal, J.D. Martinez, Lance Lynn and Craig Kimbrel probably surprise me the most
I am the Walrus
12:37
Where is the love from the Veteran's Committee (or whatever its current name is) for second basemen Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Willie Randolph? Is it because they don't have gaudy power numbers? It seems to me that a solid argument could be made for all three of them.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
Since that trio has collectively appeared on one Era Committee ballot, it's not their love that's lacking so much as it is that of the Historical Overview Committee, the group of BBWAA elders charged with constructing the ballot. While there's been some turnover in recent years, many of the folks who sat on that committee seemingly forever were the same ones who turned their noses up at Grich, Whitaker, Ted Simmons and others a few decades ago. It's a form of double jeopardy!
Alex Anthopoulos
12:40
What should the Braves do now with the Murphy injury? Promote Baldwin? or ride it out with a combination of Tromp/Casali/Leon while Murphy is out? Maybe the most important question is what do they do when Murphy heals and Baldwin is doing good in the majors?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
Just saw this. Sean Murphy is expected to be out 4-6 weeks due to fractured ribs after a HBP, placing his return in early to mid-April. I suspect that unless this turns into something much bigger, the Braves will ride with some combination of Tromp and one of the two NRI veterans on minor league deals since they could lose one by having to pass him through waivers if they want to send him down upon Murphy's return.
Guest
12:44
Who do you see winning the 5th spot in the Padres rotation.  I'm rooting for Waldron, but am intrigued by Hart.  Vazquez just doesn't seem to be the answer.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
I'd love to see Waldron, the knuckleballer, return to the rotation after being displaced late last season, but I don't think they signed Hart to be a long man, and Waldron and Vazquez each has an option remaining.
War2d2
12:47
Hi Jay! Your Schwarber article made me think about the pack of prospects the Cubs had circa 2014/15, and where they are now. Ultimately none of them will be HoF candidates, but who do you think history will be kindest to? If Rizzo is indeed done he’ll end up with just short of 40 bWAR, Bryant (barring an unlikely resurgence) will end up around 30, Baez probably 20 (assuming he gets enough playing time to further erode what he earned as a Cub), Schwarber around 20 as well. Bryant’s peak blows the rest away, but does Rizzo’s relative steadiness mean history will look at him more kindly? My hot take: because of his postseason heroics with other teams, I think Schwarber is the one people still remember in 20 yrs (assuming, as always, society makes it that far).
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I think they'll all be remembered for one reason or another — the Baez and Bryant free agent deals right now look as though they're among this decade's worst. Rizzo is a three-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glover, Schwarber a two-time All-Star. The contrast sorta reminds me of that between Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn, both of whom are fondly recalled, albeit moreso in some quarters than in others.
Andy
12:49
Hi Jay, thanks for the chat. What are your thoughts on ESPN opting out of the MLB media rights deal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:52
I suspect the two sides aren't done with each other, and as I was typing my answer I realized i'd already answered a very similar q last week. So:

While there are other alternatives for MLB to stream/air games via Apple, TBS, and Amazon, none of them has the footprint that ESPN does, and I suspect that the two sides will probably find a smaller deal that keeps them working together in some capacity. I do think, as noted in the clip that I posted (https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3liwqrrulvs24), that this does not bode well for the owners’ quest to expand the playoffs, because ESPN doesn’t seem so interested in the added inventory.
War2d2
12:53
Piggybacking on the question about story types and linking to my comment about “most memorable” mid-2010s Cubs, I’d love to see you and Longenhagen do a long-long-term retrospective on draft or prospect classes, something like a 15- or 20-years back. Getting the combined perspective of the guy that covers the starts of careers with the guy that covers the ends of them would be /chef’s kiss.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Noted! Those kind of looks back are fun but they take up some bandwidth for Eric, who carries a heavy load with our prospect coverage
Lebron
12:53
Will we ever see Ohtani steal 50 again? Or was that just a one time thing when he couldn’t pitch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
I doubt we'll see it again. All that running and sliding takes a physical toll that Ohtani and the Dodgers aren't eager for him to match if he's also pitching, and he's probably going to lose about 100 PA to days off after starting as well, meaning fewer opportunities to steal bases.
Talfred
12:56
Surveying various fan sites, I see some common tropes for trade proposals: my team’s 3-WAR player and two 1-WAR players for the other team’s superstar, my team’s washed-up player will go on a hot streak and we’ll sell high, trade my team’s deadweight contract for “some pitching”, etc. Do you have any you can add?
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