JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 3/4/25

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 3/4/25

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Jay Jaffe

12:57

My team's flailing prospect or just needs a change of scenery to unlock his blue-chip level talent. The tomato can at the back of the rotation is a legitimate no. 4 starter in a pitchers' park.

Henry Dodger

12:58

Having two teams playing their home games in minor-league parks is going to be weird. Do you think you'll get to see any regular season games in either stadium?

Jay Jaffe

12:59

No. I'm not traveling to Florida in this current political environment and Sacramento isn't among the top 10 destinations I'd hit if I had a week in California.

Jeremy

1:00

IIRC, debuting in the major leagues at age 20 or younger is a pretty decent predictor of a HoF career. Is that likely to change in future as the game trends younger?

Jay Jaffe

1:04

Not appreciably because players debuting by 20 remain a rarity and we're not seeing anything in the trend that suggests a break from business as usual.

1:05

forgive the lack of formatting here but when I break that into a rolling three-year average I don't see a big upward trend.

Something clever

1:06

Is there a non-zero chance Tatis Jr. makes the HoF or has that ship sailed?

Jay Jaffe

1:08

"Never" and "forever" are very long times — one reason why we should never rule out Rose or Bonds or A-Rod winding up in Cooperstown. We haven't seen a player suspended for PEDs wind up in the Hall of Fame but given that Tatis is just 26, it's probably 20 years before he's a viable candidate and a lot can happen between now and then.

Bosoxforlife

1:08

If a HOF candidate hangs on too long does that effect his credentials in a meaningful way. Arenado is on my mind.

Jay Jaffe

1:11

It might slow a player's path to election but if he's good enough he'll likely get in via one route or another. And I don't worry much about Arenado, who's still above average-ish (2.4 and 2.5 bWAR in in the past two seasons) and above the Hall peak standard.

Fay Vincent

1:11

Do you think we ever get another fan’s commish like Vincent? Could you see players or paying fans ever get a say in commissioner like all star voting?

Jay Jaffe

1:13

The day after Hell freezes over, perhaps. Nobody is putting control of a $12 billion a year industry directly in the hands of anybody but somebody in the vest pocket of the billionaires who stand to profit. To think otherwise is hopelessly naive, sorry.

Grandpaboy

1:13

Will the Cubs' failure to sign or trade for a playoff-quality SP go down as one of the biggest whiffs of this offseason? I don't understand why they'd make a "go for it!" trade for Tucker and not double down.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Their stopping short after dealing for Tucker remains a headscratcher and yet so typical of their post-2016 logic. It stands out as a notable whiff in a winnable division.

Henry Dodger

1:15

I missed your writing on Dave Parker making the Hall. As much fun as I had watching him as a kid, I never thought of him as a HOFer. Tremendous three-year peak but not enough otherwise.

Jay Jaffe

1:16

Here's my profile of Parker https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-classic-baseball-era-committee-candid.... I don't think I knew enough about the Hall to think of him in those terms when he was at his peak. I don't think he's a very good choice based on his advanced stats, but if he's going in, I'd prefer he lives to experience it rather than going in posthumously à la Dick Allen.

Giancarlo runs like he’s wearing jeans

1:17

Should the Yankees have brought in another 3B/2B? Depth looks light?

Jay Jaffe

1:18

Peraza is out of options and I think they still like him enough to prefer him to an outside acquisition. but yes, they are still thin

WTF

1:18

As someone with ADHD, Brian Cashman seems to exhibit a common symptom of being unable to finish a task that is mostly complete.

His task of course, is build a complete roster. Two years ago it was no left fielder. Last year it was no third baseman. This year, also no third baseman.

What gives? Can the Yankees doctors not help him get the right meds?

Jay Jaffe

1:19

I think it's stupid as hell to infer somebody's medical condition based upon the public-facing aspect of a job where 90% of what goes on isn't public.

1:20

Hal Steinbrenner sets the budget, Cashman has to work within that. If the budget doesn't allow for adding a big name third baseman, the Yankees have to work from within while hoping the owner shows some flexibility in July if that's still the greatest area of need.

Buddy Boy

1:21

Would you have voted Bud Selig into the HOF? Steroid commish seems similar to steroid players to me.

Jay Jaffe

1:21

no, I wouldn't have voted for him.

1:23

I wouldn't have voted for any commissioner for the Hall except maybe Happy Chandler, who oversaw integration by going against the desires of 14 out of 16 owners (the Dodgers and Cleveland's Bill Veeck being the exceptions)

Giancarlo runs like he’s wearing jeans

1:26

Do you think MLB expansion will make the trade deadline more exciting? I was against expansion until the expanded playoffs created a sellers market every summer.

Jay Jaffe

1:27

Meh, no. Expanded playoffs has watered down the trade deadline already and I don't think adding teams and spots is going to improve that.

JD Vance

1:27

Always count on Jay to bring up his political opinions unprompted

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Democracy is crumbling around us, an unelected Nazi is running rampant through our infrastructure, our president has started a trade war with massive tariffs and aligned himself with a Russian dictator, social security is being dismantled, and idiots think it's cool to pretend to be Nazi simps like J.D. Vance. But sure, I'm the one bringing up my political opinions unprompted.

NYY

1:31

Yanks most likely to go for Vlad, Tucker, or Murakami next offseason in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

I don't have a great sense of Murakami's strengths and weaknesses. of those three I find Tucker the most appealing and think Vladito's profile creates too high a risk for it to make sense to win a bidding war.

Bosoxforlife

1:32

Let me second the question from I am the Walrus. These 3 2nd basemen were the gold standard throughout their careers. I admit to being very biased and often refer the the HOF as the Hall of Offense. I see great hitters with little else get in, but superb all-around players who were the best at their positions get snubbed constantly.

Jay Jaffe

1:35

it's far easier to go by the easily measurable numbers, whether we're talking about traditional offensive stats or Gold Glove wins. Players with broader sets of skills that are less measurable are less often duly rewarded. We see that over and over in Hall voting history, though we've at least been able to correct some of the more glaring injustices in the past couple of decades.

WinTwins0410

1:35

Jay, can I ask you about Bill Dahlen? I know you've written about him including IIRC in the Casebook. But I'm more interested in what's happened to him more recently. In the Vets' committees circa 2007-2016, he regularly made the ballot for his era, and actually did well on those ballots, scoring 50%-60%. Now, he didn't even make the 2025 Era committee ballot, and on the previous one (2021 for 2022), he got "less than," votes-wise. But if you go back to 2016 (when he got 8 out of 16 votes, thus 50%) and earlier, Dahlen did a lot better on small committees. And yet -- he scores great on advanced stats. What do you think it is here? Do you think 1) his time is too far gone, 2) he wasn't memorable enough in what he did for his achievements to last, 3) baseball from that era was just plain different and not comparable to today; 4) he doesn't have any loud advocates and/or no one cares about that era; 5) it's the law of small numbers or a certain randomness, or 6) is it something else? What do you think?

Jay Jaffe

1:39

I suspect Dahlen's window has passed. The change in Era Committee format that brings Negro Leagues and pre-Negro Leagues Black candidates into the candidate pool while reducing ballots from 10 candidates to eight makes it harder to get placement, and harder to frame Dahlen as the most obvious victim of some injustice or oversight. He's also a rather unsavory character, with some of his traits — his gambling and a domestic violence allegation, most notably — more difficult to overlook given recent voting trends.

1:40

Ok folks, that's all I've got time for this week. Thanks so much for stopping by, we'll do this again soon.

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