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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/1/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
Thank you! It's her 80th, and thankfully she's in good enough health to enjoy it (as is my father)
Bill
2:35
Julio is going to be a 5+ WAR player this year, isn't he?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:36
i think 3-5 is more reasonable and obviously the total depends in part on playing time and when he's added to the roster. The talent is there for 5+ but expecting him to reach it at 21, without Triple-A experience, is a tall order. Immediately hitting the ceiling is never the most likely outcome.
Shave those damn sideburns!
2:36
Do you view Ohtani as a higher than average injury risk?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
Relative to the average pitcher? Absolutely, not only because of the high velocity but also the extra impact of batting. Even if his arm is perfectly sound, there exists a chance he could get hurt being hit by a pitch. I hate to think about things in those terms, but as risk evaluations go, that's where we're at
manlikefox
2:39
increased PA for Edwin Rios? Either as DH or RF? Having a healthy/good spring...
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
Sure, he could be a beneficiary of the Pollock trade if his shoulder has healed
Paul M
2:40
Do you think Conforto signs before the draft?  He's still a great LF but it seems like everyone has forgotten him
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Apparently he strained his right shoulder in workouts and wanted to wait until he was healed before agreeing to a contract. I think he'll sign  before the draft, and probably sometime this month if he's actually healthy. https://nypost.com/2022/03/30/ex-met-michael-confortos-injury-slowing-...
Georgia
2:43
Gonna be in Williamsburg for the marathon next month. Got any food recos?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
2:46
I actually don't get up to W'burg very often — can't recall the last meal I ate there b/c it was pre-pandemic — but I am a big fan of Fette Sau (BBQ)
Ragbrai
2:47
How does Atl OF play out before and after Acuna returns?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:49
Ozuna-Duvall-Rosario/Heredia to start the year, then ideally Ozuna-Acuña-Duvall/Rosario, possibly with Acuña playing center only part of the time.
B
2:50
Think Pujols hits 21 HRs this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:50
no. He won't get enough playing time, nor should he.
Shave those damn sideburns!
2:53
Thinly veiled fantasy question: will Juan Soto get his counting stats or is he going to be Bonds lite with all the intentional walks?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:56
The IBB will cut into his counting stats a bit, but we do have him forecast for 140 total walks (145 last year) in 672 PA, and still getting to 36 HR and 113 RBI. In terms of cutting into his counting stats, I'd worry more about the possibility he lands on the IL, which he's done annually for the last 3 years, maxing out at 151 games and 659 PA
Sad over Fishman
2:56
Do you think the dodgers make another move to shore up their starting rotation? things look thin after kershaw - and there are a lot questions over how many innings he can really give you
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
The rotation appears to be their biggest vulnerability. I suspect that once they get clarity on the B**** situation (which assuming he's suspended for some length of time will give them some breathing room payroll-wise) they will make a move.
Nate
2:58
Oh god, I was having a good day till you pointed out we'll have to listen to Angel Hernandez speak now. Haha
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
i'm just here to rain on everybody's parades, sorry!
Pat
2:59
Not only is Jack Morris an A'hole, but, he made a racist comment against Asian's during a broadcast last year..on top of being a boring announcer..& yet, Tigers brought him back as a commentator anyway.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:59
Much moreso than when I was arguing against his Hall of Fame case, I am thoroughly convinced Jack Morris sucks as a human being.
3:01
This is what Pat is referring to last year https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2021/08/18/jack-morris-s...
3:02
and there's his misogyny, which is part of a bigger and much sadder story that is not for the faint of heart https://deadspin.com/the-writer-who-was-too-strong-to-live-1785661187
Votto Go Bye-Bye-O
3:03
Now that the Reds aren't really contenders/are rebuilding, and given their desire to "match payroll to resources" and given that he's a power-hitting commodity who might help a contender, how would you rate the chances of Votto being traded from 1 to 10?

(Hypothetically speaking - this seems too terrible even for the Reds to do)
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
Spitballing here but the only way I could see it happening would be if he specifically agrees to a deal to the Blue Jays so he can try to reach a World Series while playing for a Canadian team.
Grant
3:04
What realistic options do you think the Giants have in regards to trading for a new 3B?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
Longoria's finger injury — surgery to repair a damaged ligament in his right index finger, specifically — is expected to keep him out for 6 weeks. Teams generally don't make big deals for something like that at the start of the season, and I suspect the Giants will gut it out with some combination of Flores, La Stella and Estrada there. They'll miss his defense more than his bat, as all three of those guys project to have higher wOBAs than he does.
werthless
3:08
The royals are mashing baseballs this spring. How do you see them allocating playing time between vets (Dozier, Santana, etc) and the hoard of young talent coming up? Is there a market for guys like Santana and Dozier?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:08
Wrote about both positions in my PPRs. I don't see either of those guys having much value in trade coming off such lousy seasons with the bat.
Guest
3:10
How much of a concern is Oneil Cruz's swing type, in terms of his potential susceptibility to strikeouts, for his longterm big league career?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:13
I'm not the prospect guy, just one reading prospect lists, but even with a 30 present/40 future hit tool via Eric Longenhagen, he's a 60-grade prospect (occasional All-Star, at least). Baseball America has the hit tool at 50 and the overall grade at 65 (perennial All-Star). So yeah, there's a bit of concern but not a ton because of the other tools
Robles
3:15
Victor Robles only seems to go backwards as the Nats try to fix his poor choices in the outfield and his broken offense. Might an elder star like Nelson Cruz have an effect or does Robles need to go somewwhere new to start again?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:17
It couldn't hurt, and the Nationals have nothing but time to see if they can fix him.
Sad Mariners Fan
3:17
How bad did Jerry blow the off season? We missed every FA bat that he was quoted saying he wanted not just 1, but 2 of. He never got the second pitcher he wanted. Our only bullpen add was the corpse of Sergio Romo. You guys don't even have the M's projected at .500 this year.. Talk me off the ledge please!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:21
Well, they did invest $115 million in the reigning AL Cy Young winner, traded for a big bat (Winker) and a very good multiposition regular (Frazier), and avoided blocking one of the top positional prospects (Rodriguez). I think that's a pretty decent offseason, though maybe another bullpen arm would be a good idea. It's not like Dipoto is likely to look at the roster on April 1 and say, "Yup, don't need to make another move 'til November."
FIP
3:22
Can we remove intentional walks and inside-the-park homeruns from FIP? Including them defeats the whole purpose of trying to isolate the pitcher's skill from his environment
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:24
I always used to calculate FIP by removing IBB and adding HBP, but really, it makes almost no difference. IPHRs are exceedingly rare enough to ignore in this context, too, and almost all of them are well-struck balls. The reality is that with FIP, ERA, and xERA you've got a lot of tools to evaluate the gap between actual and expected runs allowed, which is much better than relying upon just one of those.
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