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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/1/22
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Georgia
3:25
How much of an advantage could Toronto stand to gain with most visiting teams presumably missing some players?  I know it’s hard to know exactly without knowing who will be out, but this feels like it’s going to be a big deal
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:29
(the math was not right)
3:31
I bet Dan can model this with ZiPS, but it's not huge. If we assume that the drop is from an 8-win player to a replacement level one (and it won't be), times one such swap per team, times 10 games in Toronto for some AL East competitors... that's half a run per team per intradivision game, max of about 5 runs per team, maybe a two-win swing in the division max? And probably closer to one win? Not nothing.
Greg
3:34
Rank these bats for 2022 - Harrison Bader, Brandon Marsh, Josh Rojas.  thx!
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:35
sticking only to bats, I'd go Bader, Rojas, Marsh (very close between the first two)
The 6ix
3:35
Which stars are unvaccinated and will therefore not be able to play in Toronto? Judge seems like one.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:37
The epoch of finding out, as far as Yankees fans are concerned, begins with their May 2-4 series in Toronto. Rangers, A's, Red Sox, Astros precede them on the schedule.
3:40
Nobody has a definitive list of who is/isn't vaccinated but Anthony Rizzo was not, by his own admission, last year. Likewise for the Red Sox's Chris Sale, while it's been reported that Xander Bogaerts hasn't had his shots. Aaron Judge has evaded the question. Trevor Story reportedly got vaccinated so he could complete the deal with the Red Sox.
Color Coordinator
3:41
Hi Jay. Thanks for the chat. Fuchsia or Teal?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:41
I'm not a big fan of teal for sports teams but I like it for interior decoration!
3:43
true story: i decided to move to NYC while driving a teal rental car (Kia) that I absolutely hated; my insurance was paying for it after my car was stolen in Boston while visiting my girlfriend (I lived in Providence at the time). I loathed the color and everything about the situation and wanted to live somewhere that I didn't need a car. Moved to NYC 3 months later and i've never regretted it, but I've come around on the color.
Ragbrai
3:44
Does seem to be more “closer by committee” situations than normal this year? Is that necessarily a bad thing?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
Injuries and hot hands tend to sort these things out more often than not.
RJD
3:45
Think the ASG should give 1 extra spot to legacy players? Pujols should go regardless of season, but at the same time, not take a spot away from a more deserving player?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:45
Seems reasonable.
Guest
3:45
Is Votto already a hall of famer?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:46
yes. Wrote this before his strong finish https://blogs.fangraphs.com/joey-vottos-gotten-his-groove-back
Guest
3:47
is this not a decisive demonstration of position players being more valuable than relievers? can't imagine ever wanting a ~4 win position player over someone who will pitch 60 innings
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:49
if you're talking about Pollock, he hasn't reached 4.0 WAR since 2015, last year was his first time since then even reaching 3.0 WAR, and he projects around 2.0. The Dodgers believe they can make up those 2-3 wins in-house between their remaining position players and bullpen. I don't think this proves anything other than two GMs looking at their rosters and trading from surplus.
3:50
ok folks, time for me to call it a day here. Thanks so much for stopping by! We're six days away from Opening Day and I think we're gonna make it!
E
3:51
Bogaerts was asked and said that he got vaccinated in the off season.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:51
noted
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