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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/1/25
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:04
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first solo regular season chat! It's been a few weeks since I could occupy this slot; at this time last week, I was in the midst of a fruitless trip to the DMV, where a reservation apparently doesn't mean what you think it means. Anyway, it's the first of April, which means that it's my mother's 83rd birthday; she's not reading this chat, but I note it merely to introduce the guarantee that none of what follows will be in the form of an April Fool's joke. I spend enough time mixing bullshit with earnestness in my online persona that some people have enough trouble figuring out which is which, so let's just skip that part.

Anyway, yesterday I took a look at some goings-on in the Diamondbacks rotation https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jordan-montgomery-may-be-done-as-a-diamond...
12:05
Hot off the presses, I've got a piece about the White Sox rotation, which through the season's first four games has yet to allow an earned run — a fluky thing but one that's earned them a run in Small Sample Theater. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-white-sox-rotation-has-put-up-mostly-z...
12:06
Like, that sucker just went live while I started typing that paragraph. Don't burn your hands. And now, on with the show...
flightsongs
12:06
Happy May Day one month early! What's the most optimistic you're allowing yourself to be about Dustin May this year?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:07
Let's say 15 starts, some relief appearances, good performance and a spot in the postseason bullpen. Hope springs eternal!
StiebedTea
12:07
Howdy Jay! Let's lump 'em all together and ask: Should Devers be swinging a torpedo bat right now?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
Boy, Devers is really absolutely flailing in spectacular fashion. 0-for-19 with 4 walks and 15 strikeouts. I wrote about the Red Sox third base drama a couple weeks ago (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/red-sox-third-base-drama-appears-to-be-res...), but even with Devers ramping up slowly in the wake of last season's shoulder woes, I never envisioned he'd be this bad, and I doubt he did either.
12:10
I'm intrigued by the torpedo bats, but I don't think they're the solution for somebody who's as lost as he is
Matt VW
12:11
I get that it's only five games, but to me Devers's swing looks a lot like it did last fall when he was trying to play through bad shoulders. Is this just a blip or something more?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:13
With the caveat that I haven't actually seen Devers swing in real time this year, I'll note that his average bat speed is down 1.9 mph from last year (70.6 vs. 72.5) and 2.8 mph from late 2023 (73.4), and he's getting to his fast swing less than half as often even relative to last year. So yeah, I'd be concerned that he's not fully healthy yet, or at least not up to game speed.
StiebedTea
12:15
A Hall of Fame question that may have been asked before:* Do you think any players in the past have stayed on too long and played themselves out of the Hall of Fame (NOT a Pete Rose question)?

As in ... they were a borderline candidate and then strung together a few awful, end-of-career seasons that both statistically dropped their career out of reckoning AND narratively ruined their chances because of the lasting impression they left with fans and writers as being generally below average.

*...you probably answer this often, sorry!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:16
Well, it may not have been what you intended but I think we can start with Rafael Palmeiro failing a PED test shortly after getting his 3,000th hit
12:20
Beyond that, I think mainly about guys who appeared to be on HOF trajectories into their early 30s but then their careers bogged down due to injuries or decline rather than guys who blew it in their late 30s. One guy who may not have been helped who does come to mind is Graig Nettles, a fielding whiz and whose career AVG slipped below .250 — and whose JAWS slipped a few decimals further below the standard — by hanging on for his final three seasons
12:21
He never made much of a dent in the voting (8.3% max), though, so I'm not sure he was really on track for the Hall
12:22
Currently, I think we've seen Giancarlo Stanton's HOF chances slip away amid injuries and a descent to replacement level, but he fits more into the on-a-trajectory-until mold
StiebedTea
12:22
Or is this a really a Joey Votto question?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
Votto is gonna be fine.
Randy Metz
12:22
With all of the strategic HOF voting that seems to occur, and the reduction to 10 years on ballot, your thoughts on a change that would allow someone who received at least say 60% of the vote an additional 5 years on the ballot back to 15, and not count those guys against the 10 person max? Would allow guys that are heading towards election time to flush out their candidacy without hurting other guys on ballot and potentially keep them out of ERA Committee purgatory.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:24
I'd have to think about that but I don't hate the idea. Awhile back somebody suggested that instead of the 5% rule, there should be a sliding scale regarding what it takes to stay on the ballot, like maybe if you haven't gotten to 15% by year 5, you're done. Bonus years for getting above 50% could work too. But it's a far too creative thought for the Hall to embrace, i fear.
12:26
Lunch has arrived, bear with me while I try to type with my mouth full...
mmddyyyy
12:27
How has the tracker influenced voting?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:31
This deserves a longer response but I think it has been great for the voting process and for the Hall. The process deserves transparency, and with over 80% of voters revealing their ballots, and most of those at least giving a brief explanation for their choices — that's a much better way of going about the voting than total secrecy. The Hall has benefitted from the attention because almost every day for roughly 2 months between Thanksgiving and the announcement, people are discussing the voting and the candidates.
carson kelly fan club
12:32
I want to be, and am, excited by the cycle yesterday, but (related and unrelated to that) there's also a part of me that is starting to think these balls are ungodly juiced. Is that an overreaction to less than a week of games?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Yeah I think so. We've seen that "ball-to-ball variance" is high enough that some batches are more juiced than others, and I think it's important to get a larger sample before jumping to any conclusions.
12:35
This doesn't read to me as especially juiced
Drake Baldwin
12:37
Should I be worried? Or am I just unlucky?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:38
with a 92.7 mph average exit velo, I think there's a fair bit of bad luck there, but I'd be surprised if you were up for good even if the Braves had started 5-0 instead of 0-5
eline
12:40
hi! thank you so much for doing this! I hope all is well. do you have any thoughts on matthew liberatore? so strange to have such a good curveball and a not-so-good fastball
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:43
I don't have much in the way of specific thoughts except that it has been very weird to see the Cardinals' player development machine sputter so much. Time was that a guy with Liberatore's pedigree would have already drawn complaints about Cardinals Devil Magic as he pitched them to a playoff series win despite mediocre regular season numbers.
Galen
12:43
How bad is the Twins offense...striking out 9 times against Martin Perez. Getting no-hit for 6 IP by Perez. Doesn't really inspire confidence against real MLB pitchers.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:45
It really does look grim, as if they're still stuck in last year's season-ending skid. W/R/T the Pérez start, they're without Royce Lewis (again), didn't start either Wallner nor Larnach against the lefty, and pulled Correa and Buxton after three innings when they were down 9-0 in 39-degree weather, which is just a perfect storm of misery.
CE-0711
12:46
A couple of teams folks expected to be competitive - the Brewers and Braves - are off to really really rough starts. What's your thinking on the likelihood of full on collapse for those teams?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
I'm suddenly concerned about both teams, especially after Profar got popped for PEDs. His rebound from a miserable 2023 was a fun feel-good story, but obviously it looks much less legitimate now. And for all that he said in his statement, he was pinched for the same masking agent (HCG) that got Manny Ramirez rung up (another guy who was an obvious HOFer until the late-career PED scandal)
12:50
So with Bryan De La Cruz and Jarred Kelenic as their main corner outfielders, things are pretty dire for the Braves offense unless everybody else pulls their weight and then some.
12:51
The Brewers always seem to surpass expectations but watching Nestor Cortes get lit up by his old team the other day, they've got some work to do with that rotation. I still think they'll be competitive in the NL Central, where the bar is lower
Guest
12:52
Dale Murphy and Andruw Jones come to mind a bit. Clearly on HOF trajectories at one point, but weak ends to their careers didn't seem to help. Damn Atlanta outfields!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:53
Yes, well, Jones is doing far better than Murphy ever did in the voting thanks to defensive metrics; he's on track for eventual election where Murph can't even get traction on an Era Committee convened with an apparent eye towards PED shaming.
Bats
12:53
Any thoughts on whether we are in for a major lift for offense with the new bats?  Will they be widely used within a month?   Which pitchers will get blasted?   Maybe the ones that give up fly balls? Thanks
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
Too early to tell but I'm sure we'll see some experimentation, and if enough players are successful with them, it could very well produce a bit of an uptick
Cal Ripken
12:56
Rank these young SSs for HOF chances: Witt, Gunnar, EDC
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