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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/23
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:01
Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat.
2:02
I just went live an hour ago with my deep dive into the news that a Salt Lake City-based group has thrown its hat in the ring to bring an expansion franchise to the city where I grew up — a possibility I was immediately dismissive of last week.  https://blogs.fangraphs.com/salt-lake-citys-bid-for-a-major-league-exp...
2:03
(I've reconsidered)
Yesterday I had a quick look at the impact of Corey Seager's latest injury https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-loss-of-corey-seager-threatens-the-ran...
Anthony
2:05
What the heck is going on with Alek Manoah? He’s been brutal so far after being great last year.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:08
Good question. I haven't seen much of him but I notice that his velocity is down a bit, and he's getting hit very hard (7.43 xERA, woof). A quick look at his Stuff+ data shows that the scores for both his fastball and slider have particularly receded, (103 to 98 on the former, 111 to 101 for the latter,), with his overall Stuff+ and Pitching+ (including location) falling from 100 to 94. Velocity, shape, movement, I'm not sure what's up but I'd guess he's got some mechanical issues  to iron out.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0...
Alex
2:09
Last September, you wrote a piece about Juan Soto's season-long slump last year. Evidently, it's continued. His batting eye remains otherworldly, but his contact quality hasn't, and it's hard to know what to do with that.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Actually, his quality of contact seems to be all right but he's not getting the results.  18.2% barrel rate is great, .164 AVG compared to a .254 xAVG, .361 SLG compared to a .522 xSLG, .316 wOBA compared to a .400 xwOBA. He's got a very high pull rate (47.7%) and I think he may be a bit messed up on the mental aspect of hitting, getting a bit pull-happy as he tries to compensate for Petco's configuration.
2:13
He's going to have to figure it out of he wants that big contract, but I'd worry much more if his actual and x-stats were reversed
Farhandrew Zaidman
2:13
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:15
I don't see the need for a one-disengagement test; two is a decent limit that's already boosted stolen bases 41% on a per-game basis
I'd limit the designated PR by attaching him either to a single player for the entire game or to a one-time return of the guy being pinch-run for.
2:16
I'm open-minded about the double-hook
Arizona
2:17
How are the Dbacks still starting Bum over Pfaadt?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Man, i don't know. If he really was just dealing with fatigue then skip a turn. He's dogmeat out there; his Stuff+ is just 86 and his Location+ is down form 99 lat year to 93 this year. The beatings will continue whether or not morale improves; it's the fastball and curve that need help. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0...
2:22
By the way, somebody asked about getting Stuff+ onto individual player pages. It's something we're looking into. In the meantime, you'll notice that for the links to Bumgarner and Manoah, I've created custom one-player pages to easily compare 2021, '22 and '23 at a glance.
Ben
2:22
Ok, Jorge Mateo isn't going to hit .350 and lead the majors in WAR but with his defense and base running, if he's turned into a .260/.310/.460 hitter he's probably a top 5 short-stop--how much of this is for real?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
it's a bit early to say how much of it is for real but everywhere I look on his page, from chase rate, zone-contact rate and swinging strike rate to strikeout and walk rates, to statcast numbers I see improvements all over the place — if not numbers that support his current level. Note his .297 xBA and .493 xSLG, those would be plenty good if he can maintain them.

I note that he's hitting a ton of groundballs, which doesn't work for everyone but when you've got 99th percentile speed it's another story. He does seem to be worth a closer look.
Austin
2:31
Jeffrey Springs was killing it for my fantasy squad. Do we know when he'll be back?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
gah, what a bummer. based on what I'm reading (er, skimming) I'd guess it could be at least two months, maybe three or four
Anthony
2:33
It's November '23 and we are looking back at the Dodgers saves by reliever breakdown. What does that look like?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
Woof, I just looked and they've got three saves so far, two from Evan Phillips and one three-inning job from Andre Jackson. I'd guess we wind up with Phillips and Graterol in double digits and Miller with a few. Not gonna be a lot because 90 wins ain't happening and I'm starting to wonder about 81.
Tony Two Bags
2:34
Why do people think Rendon is washed? He's hitting harder than he ever has, is making more contact than he ever has, isn't a groundball machine, and his plate discipline has been elite thus far. I'm not sure what I'm missing
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:38
In the age of social media, you'll always have some edgelords treating the burial of a player as a competitive sport and others who let their emotions over a player wrecking their fantasy team three years ago take over. It's silly.

Now, would anybody who told us we were fools for believing Jarred Kelenic had a future please tape a giant "Kick Me!" sign to their butts? I won't actually kick you...
Yeah Well Hiura Towel
2:38
Salt Lake City? I don't think I've ever heard it mentioned before as a potential MLB city. Is there a "there" there?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
I wrote 2,500 words about it, have a look.
in short, a potential bid has some things to recommend it and perhaps distinguish it from other competitors, but one almost unfathomably large issue looms
Yeah Well Hiura Towel
2:39
Lol I didn't even see you had just written about SLC. Oops.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
fair enough
Brandon Belt
2:40
should I be concerned?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:41
46.2% strikeout rate suggests something is very, very wrong, and he does have a lot of injuries in his history. Not saying he's done but maybe call his next of kin to do a wellness check.
Mike M
2:42
I enjoyed your piece about an expansion team in SLC.  But what you didn't discuss is what would be a good name for the team.  Any suggestions?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
I do love the Bees, which harkens back to their original PCL entry in 1915 and refers to Utah's slogan as the Beehive State. The Utah Stars harkens back to their ABA championship in the mid-'70s, but I think Nashville is using Stars as well. Lakers is probably a bit too cheeky given the big issue I referred to and I think there's already a team using that one (I joked in the 1980s that the Jazz and Lakers should have traded names). I'd need to think about it longer to get some better ones in the mix.
Tiger Fan
2:46
Any 25 and under current players you think will eventually will end up in the HOF?  In the past you have said Juan Soto (most current WAR) had the best shot, but he looks dreadful right now.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:48
See above re: Soto — i do think he'll be fine. Wander Franco, Ronald Acuña Jr. and even Fernando Tatis Jr. would be my best guesses for others but I am less than convinced. Wrote about Acuña the other day https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ronald-acuna-jr-s-bat-is-nearly-all-the-wa...
not loving the early reads on his defense and sprint speed but the bat obviously still plays
2:49
Tatis will have to be a model citizen if he's going to get there. Yes, it's easy to point to the fact that no PED-suspended player has been elected, but 20 years from now the story may be very different.
2:50
Franco is hitting the ball harder, for the person who was wondering about that in this space a few weeks ago
Tiger Fan
2:50
Who do you think will have the better career going forward...Wander Franco or Julio Rodriguez?
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