JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/18/23

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Jay Jaffe

2:50

Oh, duh, Julio is another one I'd add to that list.

I don't know who will have the better career of those two, I just want to make sure I get to watch!

Tungsten Arm Ohtani

2:51

If Ohtani's overriding goal in free agency is to win a World Series (assume the money is essentially equal and geography is not a consideration), which team should he pick?

Jay Jaffe

2:52

Might be the Dodgers... or the Braves. Good lord is the latter bursting with young talent and unlike the Dodgers they've locked those guys up with ridiculously low contracts (which I don't love but must point out).

Jaime

2:54

If the Yanks and Angels discussed a straight up Trout for Judge trade, who says no?

Jay Jaffe

2:55

Judge.

Tiger Fan

2:55

What would Shohei Ohtani have to do going forward to be considered a top 10 player of all time? Be a productive 2 way player until the age of 40 and about 100 WAR?

Jay Jaffe

2:59

I don't know that we can't already say that. After all, in AL/NL history we've never had a player *sustain* a high level of success batting and pitching; even Babe Ruth was in transition for parts of a couple of seasons.

I don't particularly expect Ohtani to be able to do both at a high level until he's 40; not to get too bleak but the odds are somewhere along the way an arm injury might at least threaten his career on the mound (it's already happened once). IMO if he gets to 10 years of major league appearances he'll have my Hall of Fame vote.

TKDC

2:59

After Cabrera retires, next year, will Mike Trout be the only legitimate active position player to unequivocally call a “future hall of famer”?

Jay Jaffe

3:00

No because I think the tipping point has already been reached for Betts, and we're not far off on Arenado, Machado, and Goldschmidt.

Tungsten Arm Ohtani

3:01

Inspired by watching a lot of little league and many, many comical misplays, what is the worst play you have ever seen a MLB player make?

Jay Jaffe

3:02

Ruben Rivera's baserunning (with a legendary call by Jon Miller) comes to mind

3:03

Manny Ramirez inexplicably cutting off Johnny Damon comes to mind as well

Addison

3:06

How does the Toronto catcher situation shake out? Kirk hasn't done much. Jansen's been terrible. Varsho's a strict outfielder?

Jay Jaffe

3:08

I'm surprised that Varsho hasn't caught at all yet because at least some of his value is tied up in his ability to do so. Beyond that I don't get the impulse to cut and run on the other two two weeks into the season (somebody else asked about trading Kirk but maybe that was a fantasy question).

3:09

BTW since there are a lot in the queue — i generally don't answer fantasy questions because I haven't played it in any form in over a decade. If one has a non-fantasy angle to it i might delve in but your odds aren't high unless it's pretty big.

TIL

3:10

How can average exit velocity be low but hard hit percentage be high? Looking at Cristian Javier.

Jay Jaffe

3:12

Javier's average exit velo of 88.4 and hard-hit rate of 41.85 aren't really at either extreme; the former is in the 54th percentile, the latter the 39th. Doesn't seem all that remarkable to me especially this early in the year.

Learner

3:13

How can I improve my knowledge on in and out of zone contact rates? Are there any articles you recommend?

Jay Jaffe

3:15

My suggestion is to look at our leaderboards and compare guys to league average to get a feel as to where the centers of the various metrics are as well as who the outliers are.

I did really like this piece by Dave Cherman on plate discipline metrics, which does mention both of the ones you cited but also others as well. https://www.pitcherlist.com/a-beginners-guide-to-understanding-plate-d...

Loren

3:17

SLC resident here. I had the same initial reaction as you did, but was encouraged after reading your article. Is there any chance that SLC could be a relocation site for the A's or Rays, or is the Miller ownership group essential to make it happen?

Jay Jaffe

3:20

Hi Loren, thanks! I have to think that the Miller family is pretty key to getting the bid on the map. One thing I didn't really expound upon in the article is that the Millers' experience in the area gives them a pretty good understanding of the cultural mores of a state where the Mormon Church casts a long shadow. I think an outside owner could easily blunder him/herself into a difficult position without appreciating the sensitivities in play there. The Millers obviously have long-standing ties to the business community of the city and state as well and that's tough to replicate for any ownership group.

Nestor Cortes

3:21

...is just a legitimately very good starting pitcher now. They should extend.

Jay Jaffe

3:21

Wouldn't surprise me if they do... if Cortes is open to it.

3:22

Any worries about Strider with slightly less velocity?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

Not yet. Remember, he didn't enter the rotation until May 30 of last year. He's going to have to pace himself to carry a larger complement of innings, so maybe he's backing off a bit.

Benjamin

3:24

The Phillies as a team have a .371 BABIP. That’s 30 or 40 points higher than the next highest team. Ever seen anything like that? I know it’s early, but it feels like the sum of all of their batters’ plate appearances gets you to a decently sized sample.

Jay Jaffe

3:27

Via the FanGraphs Library (to which I still owe a JAWS article. Someday), individual hitter BABIP stabilizes at around 800 balls in play, and I imagine that you probably need a team sample of at least that size to tell you anything. The Phillies are at 428, so I don't think I'd get too worked up about this yet, but it bears noting as something to watch! https://library.fangraphs.com/pitching/babip/

Farhandrew Zaidman

3:28

Dustin May got hit around a bit last night....his velo is down ever so slightly and his K/9 is comically low. Too early for conclusions?

Jay Jaffe

3:30

God, that was ugly. His Stuff+ numbers are great, but his swinging strike rate is way down and his contact rate is way high. Not quite sure what's going on other than maybe throwing the sinker too much. Ben Clemens wrote about him here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/early-season-pitch-modeling-standouts/

Bobo

3:31

Which rookie would you rather start tonight, Jameson or Bradley?

Jay Jaffe

3:31

Bradley, if only because he's a Ray not a Diamondback

3:32

Trey Mancini has seemed basically cooked since his trade to Houston. What are the chances he rebound to an above average hitter at this point?

Jay Jaffe

3:32

Jeez, those numbers don't look good. He's 246 PA into his Astros career and Houston, we have a problem.

Birds

3:33

Did Jose Abreu just get on the late-career Miggy path? Batting eye and contact ability hang around a while, but power suddenly evaporates?

Jay Jaffe

3:34

I don't know but Houston may have another problem, and it wouldn't surprise me if he does suddenly fall off given his age. I think somebody on staff is planning to write about him soon; we'll see if they turn something up.

20longyears

3:35

I know it's too good to be true, but suppose the Cutch renaissance lasts all year and he puts up a 4-WAR season. He's already very likely to finish the season with 300 HR, 400 2B, 2000 hits, and 200 SB. Would his career and peak WAR getting thus nudged upward make him a HoF candidate?

Jay Jaffe

3:36

3:37

A 4-WAR season takes him to 50.1/39.4/44.8, still nowhere close to being a serious candidate, though he might linger on the ballot like Torii Hunter.

Bring Back Blueno

3:37

How many Jaffes are out there? If we see another person with the last name Jaffe, what is the probability that you're related to them?

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