JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/2/24

Jay Jaffe

2:02

Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my first (solo) chat of the 2024 season. I've got a piece today about Ronel Blanco's no-hitter here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/on-a-day-for-no-hit-bids-astros-righty-ron...

And yesterday I wrote about the Yankees' hot start thanks to Juan Soto and the fill-ins for injured third baseman DJ LeMahieu https://blogs.fangraphs.com/juan-soto-and-the-third-base-fill-ins-star...

2:03

Is Ronel Blanco fur realz or should we be very, very worried as Blue Jays fans that Mark Shapiro loves glove first non-hitters?

Jay Jaffe

2:05

Blanco had his changeup working last night, and it baffled the Blue Jays. They have the potential for a pretty decent offense, but punting on third base by letting Matt Chapman go and replacing him with Isiah Kiner-Falefa is going to cost them, and I'm not wild about their second base situation either.

slave to 25 PA

2:05

I know Mike Trout’s not gonna maintain a .900 slugging, but am I wrong to be a little hopeful he makes a bounce back. I am worried about his whiff rate.

Jay Jaffe

2:07

after getting just 237 games over the past three seasons, I'm glad to see any Mike Trout, and holy smokes did he destroy that baseball. 473 feet! and that was just one of his homers https://www.mlb.com/video/mike-trout-drills-a-473-foot-homer-run

2:09

That said, you're right that he's got a lot more swing and miss lately. His strikeout rate jumped from about 21% from 2011-20 to 28% over the past three seasons and I'm not clear why. Might be worth a closer look if it persists

2:09

I was skeptical about Volpe presumably hitting the ball in the air less by flattening his attack angle but SSS be damned its night and day from 2023. Quite impressive

Jay Jaffe

2:13

I think people — especially Yankees fans — forget how young Volpe is. He'll turn 23 later this month, is hardly a finished product, and has a ton of offensive upside. Dan Szymborski included him on his ZiPS breakouts list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2024-booms-and-busts-hitters/. I expect him to improve significantly year-over-year relative to last season

And I do think that with the arrival of Juan Soto, the Yankees' offense has a very different vibe about it.

Cromulent

2:13

Thanks for chatting Jay. Curious for your historically-oriented take. If we ever get to automated balls and strikes, what's the legacy of the pitch framing era? "Stealing strikes" or something more nuanced? How if at all does that change catcher evaluation?

Jay Jaffe

2:16

I think maybe we'll look back on it like the high mounds of the 1960s, a time when the rules and the style of play were favorable for a certain type of player before being somewhat neutralized through rule changes.

That said, I don't think we're going to get a full ABS (automatic ball and strike) system anytime soon. It sounds as though what we'll eventually get is a challenge system, and while that would reduce the impact of framing it wouldn't entirely negate it.

Stephen

2:16

RE: Yankees off to a hot start: could it just be that they have more good players than last year, replacing guys like Willie Calhoun and Franchy Cordero with Juan Soto rather than some grand narrative about hitting coaches and a new mentality (grinding ABs). After all, they were 7th in pitches per plate appearance last year but they just had a lot of bad hitters who couldn't do damage.

Jay Jaffe

2:19

They did give an inordinate number of plate appearances to Quad-A hackers, with Jake Bauers and Billy McKinney getting even more PA than the two guys you named. However, I do expect signficant improvement from Volpe, Oswaldo Cabrera (who was worse than the Quad-A guys), Stanton, and Rizzo, and despite my general distaste for Alex Verdugo, he's a big step up from the aforementioned as well

v2micca

2:19

I know it is really really early, but as a Braves fan that also enjoys watching the Mets suffer, is it time to get excited about the possibility of Kelenic tormenting the Mets for years to come?

Jay Jaffe

2:20

You'd hardly be the first to dream on Kelenic becoming a good major leaguer, but the woods are filled with people utterly broken while waiting for that to happen. Caveat emptor.

Sharps

2:21

If you and your kid were fans of a mediocre-to-bad team this year (coughnationalscough), what national stories would have you excited for baseball?

Jay Jaffe

2:24

Off the top of my head, not necessarily in order: the arrival of Yamamoto, the new-look Dodgers, Juan Soto back in the Eastern time zone, the return of O'Neill Cruz (and signs of life in Pittsburgh?), the Rangers with Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter, the rookie Jacksons (Chourio, Merrill, and eventually Holliday), a functional Mike Trout, the question of whether the Orioles can follow up last year's 100-win season...

Guest

2:25

Are the Red Sox going surprise people this year? Or still not enough quality arms?

Jay Jaffe

2:26

I don't see them having enough starting pitching. They've done very well the first time through the rotation, but let's see if it sticks

seth r

2:26

joey votto should be on an MLB roster

Jay Jaffe

2:29

I think he will be, but let's remember he just signed with the Blue Jays about 3 weeks ago and needs some at-bats under game conditions to get ready. He had just one in an official exhibition game, homered on the first pitch he saw, and then rolled his right ankle in the dugout right afterwards and didn't play again.

Look for him in late April or early May

Dancin' Dan McGraw

2:32

Yankees offer Soto a 10 year/500 mil deal with an opt out after year 5 and 6. Does this get it done?

Jay Jaffe

2:32

Probably but he might want those opt-out years closer to the front of the deal.

sliptoad

2:32

in honor of blanco, which do you prefer in a no-hitter-- aces dominating or someone coming out of nowhere and having the night of their life?

Jay Jaffe

2:35

Why not both? I do think it's pretty great when we get journeymen and comparatively obscure guys having the night of their life, though. Edwin Jackson, Philip Humber, Bud Smith, Mike Fiers (twice!) and so on

Jimmers

2:35

Why are people pushing for Vizquel in the HOF because of his defense but not Andrue Jones (based on defense)? Is it because his defensive peak was shorter? I don't get it.

Jay Jaffe

2:39

Leaving aside both players' off-field issues (both were arrested for domestic violence, for one thing), the difference seems to be that Vizquel had enough longevity to approach 3,000 hits despite being one of the worst hitters of the modern era; his 82 OPS+ is tied with two HOF shortstops, Rabbit Maranville and Luis Aparicio, for the lowest of any player with at least 2,500 hits. Jones on the other hand lacked longevity and basically fell apart physically and perhaps mentally after signing a big free agent deal with the Dodgers. Never mind the fact that the defensive metrics are much more supportive of Jones, who was also an above-average hitter and accumulated about 17 more WAR in ~3500 fewer PA

erghammer

2:41

With all the research you've done about the guys who are in the Hall, who maybe should be in the Hall, etc., have you ever thought "my gut tells me this guy should be in but a case for it can't be built around conventional metrics," and then you went out and looked for unconventional metrics or even started to think up a new metric for measuring the player's impact?

Jay Jaffe

2:45

I wouldn't do that in support of any one player because that's bad process that undermines the credibility of the underlying work. But I've messed around with how I evaluate relievers in a few different ways, and I've done so more recently with starters, too. The goal isn't to justify why, say, Dave Stieb should be in the Hall, it's to see if we can find some separation and therefore equitable means of recognizing the best from among a sizable group that came and went from ballots in the blink of an eye, with Stieb one of the top candidates within that group.

If I can do it in a way that first convinces myself and then extends to other voters, whether it's Stieb, Cone, Hershiser, Santana or somebody(s) else, THAT is what I'm aiming for.

Wild Bill

2:48

Ideal composition of Os infield? I say Mountcastle/Ohearn platoon at First, Holliday at 2nd, Gunnar at Short and Westburg at third once Holliday is called up hopefully soon.

Jay Jaffe

2:49

I think that looks about right but maybe it's Coby Mayo at first base at some point in the not-too-distant future.

Brad Radke's Burner

2:49

When do you think, if ever, Johan Santana will appear on a committee ballot?

Jay Jaffe

2:52

He's not even eligible until after what would have been his 10-year run on the BBWAA ballot ends in 2027. The next available ballot under the current structure would be 2029, but the competition for ballot space is going to be fierce, and the fact that he got less than 5% works against him when you're talking about competition that got percentages that were an order of magnitude higher and then some.

Only Fan(atic)s

2:53

Convince me that the E. Ruiz demotion isn't about as blatant tanking as it gets

Jay Jaffe

2:54

He was a 1.3-WAR player in regular duty last year, not the second coming of Rickey Henderson. This may well be service time manipulation but it's not like he doesn't have areas where he could improve given his lack of plate discipline and inability to hit the ball hard so far.

Sandwich

2:55

Bryce elder pitched 180 innings last year was very good for a vast majority of them. Why is there still so much doubt just because he throws 88

Jay Jaffe

2:58

Throws 88 and doesn't strike many hitters out. That said, he's shown he can deliver bulk innings at a better-than-average rate, and the Braves will almost certainly need him to plug a hole in their rotation soon enough.

3:01

This applies more to the Ruiz situation than to the Elder one but sometimes having minor league options can really work against a player at this time of year. The A's just picked up Tyler Nevin on waivers, and he's out of options, where Ruiz is not. They have a chance to evaluate whether the new guy can help them without the risk of losing much.

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