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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/2/24

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Kiermaier's Piercing Green Eyes

3:01

I read that last night's no-hitter was the earliest ever. What ahistorical poppycock is this? Literally every other no-hitter ever came before it!

Jay Jaffe

3:01

womp womp

earliest by calendar date in a season

bosoxforlife

3:01

Are you happy with the game as it is now with fewer base hits but more power and strikeouts?

Jay Jaffe

3:03

I've come around to wanting to see more hits, higher batting averages, and fewer three-true-outcomes. This may be the year you finally get my treatise, "Let's Give a Shit About Batting Average Again."

Tigers fan

3:04

Which current hitters 26 and under do you think are most likely to make the HOF?

Jay Jaffe

3:07

Soto and Ronald Acuña Jr. with a big gap ahead of everybody else, then a fwq from among Adley Rutschman, Julio Rodríguez, Michael Harris II, Gunnar Henderson, Corbin Carroll, maybe Fernando Tatis Jr. if he can put in about 15 years of model citizenship

Marshall

3:07

Does Mookie Betts have a better chance at unanimous HOF induction than Mike Trout? I get the sense that Mookie is universally loved in a way that Trout isn't.

Jay Jaffe

3:09

I think that's just recency bias getting the better of you. Trout is a year older and has 20 WAR and two MVP awards on Betts, who obviously makes up some ground by playing on better teams.

Tigers fan

3:10

In the future will fans and HOF voters need to adjust their criteria moving from counting statistics like 3000 hits, 500 HR, 300 wins to less tradition statistics like WAR, wRC, and OPS+?

Jay Jaffe

3:12

it's already happening. Consider recent HOF position players such as Raines, Bagwell, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Joe Mauer... none of them reached the 3000 or 500 milestones. on the pitching side, three of the last four starters (Mussina, Pedro, Smoltz) were short of 300 wins.

JAWS, baby.

Mets

3:13

Its never too early in Flushing to get that sinking feeling. Minor leaguers are dissing the major league team publicly. The leadership problem appears to continue to swirl. Any early thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

3:16

I think the Mets have confused the public and themselves as to what their intentions are for this year. By trading Scherzer and Verlander last year and then staying out of the deep end of the free agent pool this year, they made it pretty apparent that in the short term they don't expect to contend unless they luck into it. Things like the signing of J.D. Martinez and the demotion of Vientos sort of cloud that.

Josh

3:17

Did you get a chance to watch Bobby Miller's start last week? Are you as excited about his season as me? He looked absolutely dominant.

Jay Jaffe

3:19

Oh, I'm very high on Miller. Like Walker Buehler before him, he's got an arrogance and intensity with regards to his mound presence to go with the great stuff, and I think he's capable of being the team's #1 or #1A starter

CardsBadMakesMeSad

3:20

Jordan Walker has shown improved discipline in the early-going, but the batted ball numbers still leave a lot to be desired. Think he turns the corner this summer and starts demolishing baseballs?

Jay Jaffe

3:21

I do think Walker will take a step forward. His early numbers are ugly but come on, we're talking about four games worth of data.

Byoung

3:21

Early April games when weather is at its worst should mostly be between divisional foes in case of rainouts. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe

3:23

In theory that works but the problem is that most of the teams are concentrated in the northern half of the US, where temperatures are cooler. There simply aren't enough warm-weather or covered sites to keep baseball out of the cold in April.

Luke

3:23

Hi Jay, how likely do you think the rally Reds are to keep their ability to win 1 run games over the course of the season? After last season and the first few games this year I'm starting to feel dangerously hopeful....

Jay Jaffe

3:25

While a good bullpen certainly helps, winning one-run games isn't a reliable predictor of winning more one-run games

3:26

in other words, you should be braced for some regression eventually — but if you and the Reds are lucky, maybe it will hold out long enough that the team is contending for something

Anil

3:27

Bailey Ober? Any thoughts

Jay Jaffe

3:27

Guy got bombed in one start? I think you're oberreacting

TRY THE VEAL!

Austin

3:28

They haven't been dominant but has the Tigers start altered the outlook for their season? Their pitching has looked quite good to start the year.

Jay Jaffe

3:30

Thanks to the development of some of their young players, the Tigers do seem to be a team poised for a breakthrough in a division that looks even more winnable now that the Twins have lost Royce Lewis for a month or more.

Benny

3:30

With Greinke a free agent and Kershaw, Scherzer, and Verlander on the IL (not to mention deGrom and Cole), which active non-injured MLB pitcher is most likely to make the Hall of Fame someday?

Jay Jaffe

3:33

I'd put Jansen and Kimbrel at higher odds than any starter besides Cole, but assuming you're asking about starters, I'd go with Zack Wheeler. He's a few WAR behind teammate Aaron Nola but is trending much better lately

John Darc

3:34

Does your kid like Juan Soto?

Jay Jaffe

3:35

She hasn't seen much of him yet, just a few games with him on the Padres. I expect that to change.

HOF

3:35

How do you feel about the players who had great but shorter careers? I always thought guys like Wright and Mattingly should be in. The back of Oliva's bb card is loaded with bold print - he was great from day 1 for 9 years and it took forever to get in.

Jay Jaffe

3:38

The longer I've done Hall evaluations, the more I've come around toward higher peak guys with shorter careers. Nonetheless, I think the peaks of the guys you mention were a bit too short or otherwise limited for me to give them strong consideration. Wright's 39.5 WAR seven-year peak (WAR7) is less than four wins off the peak standard for 3B, likewise for Oliva in RF. Mattingly is 6.2 short at 1B (nearly a win per year). Dale Murphy is about 3.5 short of the peak standard in CF AND had the two MVP awards, i've come around a bit on him.

3:39

When do the small sample sizes of early season actually matter to you? Like, what kinds of things do you look for that actually seem to provide something tangible to go on, rather than just a blip in a long season?

Jay Jaffe

3:40

Different stats stabilize at different sample sizes, and over the next few months we'll be writing about that a lot. 60 batted balls is one important threshold that I'm particularly mindful of .

jackal

3:40

Do you think Lourdes Gurriel can have a late career leap forward?

Jay Jaffe

3:42

He's 30 and has nearly 2,500 PA in his career and 8.9 fWAR/10.9 bWAR. Set career highs in both WARs last year (2.1/3.0). This is his leap forward, and while it's nice, it doesn't scream "perennial All-Star".

Matt VW

3:43

Earliest by date in calendar season, but Bob Feller threw a no-hitter on opening day. The factoid says more about how the schedule has changed than about precocious pitching dominance.

Jay Jaffe

3:44

Yes. Feller's was thrown on April 16, 1940. he was also throwing about 250 miles an hour at a time when few pitchers were in the 90s.

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