Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/21/26
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AvatarJay Jaffe
12:01
Good afternoon, and welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. I've got a piece about Edwin Díaz's impending elbow surgery in the pipeline, while yesterday I wrote about Yordan Alvarez's hot start (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-houstons-problems-yordan-alvarez-is-l...).
12:03
Last Friday, I wrote about the Mets' losing streak (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-offense-the-new-look-mets-are-in-quite-...), which has now reached 11 games. It's brutal.
Thanks to everyone who had kind words about my tribute to Davey Lopes (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/davey-lopes-1945-2026-speedster-student-an...), my first favorite player. And now, on with the show...
21127
12:04
After you wrote about the Mets, would you have guessed another FG writer would write about the Mets before the losing streak ended?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:05
Hah, that is brutal. I focused my piece on the offense's shortcomings, knowing that there would probably be room for a follow-up on their pitching or some other aspect of their struggles at some point, but I did expect them to at least win a game here or there along the way.
Justin
12:05
I don’t think Mendoza should be fired, but I’m surprised he hasn’t been. Do you think the Mets let him go? Thanks
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:09
The thing you have to remember is that Steve Cohen isn't Fred Wilpon. I'm sure he's not enjoying this, but he's wired differently. This isn't the same kind of panic-driven organization as it was for so long, so I think that Mendoza will have a longer leash to turn things aroiund. Which isn't to say that he's guaranteed to make it through the season, particularly after last year's skid, but it's not his fault that the majority of the high-profile additions to the roster have scuffled thus far.
Sid the Astros Kid
12:10
Spencer Arrighetti is the best pitcher on the Astros currently, just as predicted. In other related news we may never lose a game again
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:11
They've won one in a row! With Hunter Brown, Cristian Javier, and Tatsuya Imai all down with injuries, somebody had to be.
hayz11
12:13
I've been trying to figure out what is going on with Andrew Abbott, but all of his numbers are so different from last year that it's hard to point to one specific thing that may be the problem. His stuff and particularly his command ratings appear to have taken a step back, and that's clearly messing with his K/BB numbers. But he's also inducing more weak contact and getting more ground balls. His changeup has a whiff rate of 43% and a hard hit rate of 9% - and hitters are slugging .560 against it! His arm slot is a little higher, and the movement profiles on his pitches are a little (though not drastically) different across the board, so I'm curious if this appears to be a mechanical/approach issue, or if this is just a case of weird SSS noise.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:17
That's a lot. His arm angle is up, as you note, and that's going to change the movement profile somewhat. Both the pitch-modeling systems we use say that his stuff and command/location are down. I'm wondering if the higher angle is making his offerings less deceptive; lefties have been teeing off on his four-seamer. Let's hope this is a mechanical thing rather than a physical thing.
the only healthy astros player
12:17
if yordan wins the mvp this year does that increase his HoF odds by orders of magnitude? without it, he feels unlikely but with one it seems much more possible
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:18
no award will increase his odds the way that stringing together multiple healthy seasons will. He's a great hitter but between the pandemic and his own injuries has lost almost three seasons worth of games before turning 29.
Guest
12:19
This is very random but what happens if a player going into the HOF picks a cap of a team they barely played for - like what if Jeff Kent was like "actually I want to have the Blue Jays" even though he played 37 games for half a season with them? I know you don't have to pick the team you had the most games or seasons or WAR with, but does the Hall have any ability to say "no that's dumb you can't do that"?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:22
The Hall has the final say on caps, and will effectively narrow the list of options for the player. For Kent it was probably a choice of Giants or blank, an option that has become a bit more common in recent years, with Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina, and Fred McGriff among those going that route
Dr. Holmquist
12:23
At what percentage is a strategy choice consequential? For example, baseball savants new game strategy explorer says Bottom 8, 0 outs, runner on first win percentage is 67%. With a sac bunt that advances the runner the new win percentage is 65.6%. Is 1.4%. Is a 1.4% loss deemed too costly to teams? Is there a percentage change that is considered too consequential to make that decision?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:25
The thing to remember with such simulations is that they're for the average player, and the differences between players may dwarf those minor gains or losses. Sure, a stolen base would be great, but unless your slowpoke is Josh Naylor, he's probably not savvy enough to pull it off, and likewise, if you have Austin Hedges up there, you may as well try for a sacrifice instead of a nonproductive out.
hayz11
12:25
Dalton Rushing is 2nd on the Dodgers in HR and 3rd in fWAR despite only playing in 8 games. SSS concerns aside, this was a 60FV prospect not long ago and they are using him like a typical backup catcher. Having Ohtani and Smith blocking him limits options, but wouldn't you think they need to find ways to get him into the lineup while he's hitting like this?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:27
With Freddie Freeman on the paternity leave list, Rushing got a start at first base last night and he homered twice. I expect him to be the Dodgers' top backup at the position going forward, with Dave Roberts probably trying to find him more opportunities in that capacity going forward, which could help keep Freddie fresh. Left field could also be an option given his 33 games of minor league experience there.
Matt
12:31
What's your take on Will Warren? Watching him he seems like a guy whose stuff always outplayed the actual results, and feels like he might be on the verge of a real level-up as a starter... But he probably gets kicked to the pen before Weathers in the healthy version of the Yankees rotation
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:34
Warren really is off to a strong start to his season, and maybe showing us what the Yankees saw in him. But if I've learned one thing in over 25 years of covering baseball dating back to my blogging days, fretting about what's going to happen when all of your starters are healthy is a fool's errand, because those situations tend to work themselves out — somebody will be either ineffective enough to be the obvious candidate for the bullpen, or somebody else will admit that yeah, they've been pitching through some discomfort and may need an IL stint... something like that.
Blackfish Creek Brad
12:34
Sorry to say that PB Boulangerie is permanently closed!
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:35
Gah, thanks for the Cape Cod scouting report. I think this hits the rest of my family harder than me, but boy could Wellfleet use some better sandwich options.
Pete
12:37
Watching Vladdy do the splits still at 1st amazes me.  Is there data available for first basemen in the frequency that they stretch for the ball, or around distance from the base that the ball is caught?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:39
I imagine at some point Statcast might have something on this — maybe they already do, behind the scenes. I know that Sports Info Solutions does track first baseman scoops; Vladito is 2nd since the start of 2024 with 50, well behind Pete Alonso's MLB-high 68, albeit in more playing time.
drplantwrench
12:39
is there going to be a fangraphs article on Garret Anderson?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
I'm saddened by his loss, but I'm not planning to write about him, and I haven't heard of anyone else on staff planning to do so either. Unfortunately, we can't cover everybody of note who passes — I didn't get to Phil Garner, either.
Thanks
12:41
A few weeks ago, I asked for suggestions on birthday presents for a friend hitting a big birthday, and you had some great suggestions. Ended up getting matching Mitchell and Ness BP jerseys for him and his toddler. Big hit. Thanks again.
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:41
Oh, awesome! Glad that worked out.
12:42
Here's the Edwin Díaz piece: https://bsky.app/profile/fangraphs.com/post/3mjzft7hke22h
Nate
12:43
The Mets losing streak has given a lot of cover to the Royals, who were also expected to be at least decent and have fallen flat on their face to start the year. Has age finally caught up to Salvy? Does anyone get fired?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:46
Perez has finished with less than 1.0 WAR in three of the past four seasons so I'd argue that age has already caught up with him. Coming off back-to-back seasons above .500, with a playoff appearance within, I don't think either Matt Quatraro or J.J. Picollo are in jeopardy; they're respectively signed through 2029 and '30, each with club options.
Their struggles are probably worth a closer look at some point.
HappyFunBall
12:47
Are the Nats going to finish the season with worse pitching than Colorado, even if we DON'T adjust for the park? Because that's where we are today...
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:49
Miles Mikolas is the paper bag labeled "Dead Dove: Do Not Eat," so I'm not sure what anyone expected there, but yeah, it's been really bad. They just don't have enough guys who miss bats.
Guest
12:52
what do you think Vlad Jr has to do to make the HOF? He'll probably go down as the Jays' franchise player, but how much WAR, or what accolades do you think he needs
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:54
I think he's a long ways off — talented, but a ways off. I see at most three seasons on his resumé that are workable from a Hall peak standpoint: 2021, '24, and '25 — and the last of those is founded more on his October work than on his 4.6 bWAR. The good news is that he's still young and obviously has some good genes, but it's going to be a few years before his case comes into focus.
doughboy
12:55
Dillon Dingler is off to a scorching start. Underneath the hood his hard hit rate and barrel % have risen exponentially. After how many at bats does this become a meaningful change? Any possibility he's figured something out offensively and with his defense he has become a potential elite all around catcher?
AvatarJay Jaffe
12:59
Exit velocity and barrel rate start to stabilize around 50 batted balls, hard-hit rate around 80. Dingler has 57 to date, so yeah, that jump from 9.2% to 21.1% really does look like a big deal even if he gives back half of those gains, and likewise with his drop in strikeout rate from 23.5% to 15.4%. He does seem to have picked SOMETHING up, and he was already a good defender, so he may well be on his way to an All-Star selection. We'll see here it goes from there.
Dan
1:00
If Ben Rice hits like this the whole season but stops facing lefty starters does he get MVP consideration or would the less than full time role tank his candidacy?
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