JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/21/26

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat 4/21/26

Prev Page View Full Chat

This chat is available to members only. Please log in to participate.

Jay Jaffe

1:01

He's got 3 homers in 20 PA against lefties, while Paul Goldschmidt has just 2 hits in 19 PA against lefties so I'm not sure this is a hypothetical worth spending much time on.

War2D2

1:01

I’ve been thinking about doing a Cape Cod League trip at some point in the future. Is it worth the effort? I’ve never been to the cape and live on the West coast, so it’d be a hike to get there.

Jay Jaffe

1:04

I guess it depends on your appetite for watching very good college players, many of whom will eventually reach the majors, running around on high-school fields. The games are free, the venues are all within a couple hours of each other, and it's a leisurely atmosphere with some great beaches and a ton of seafood within reach. if that sounds like your idea of a good time, go for it.

Dan

1:04

Have the Yankees not played Ben Rice at catcher this year because of he is currently the best hitter on the team or was this always the plan?

Jay Jaffe

1:05

The plan was to use him as a backup catcher but also to carry Escarra. I think the way things are going we're not gonna see much of Rice behind the plate, though.

Captainjameshook

1:06

Howdy, Jay! If Stewart and McLean were off to slower starts, would Eldridge already be up to try for the PPI or do you think it’s unrelated and the Giants believe he’s not ready to help the team?

Jay Jaffe

1:09

I don't think the Giants — or any team — are going to react to somebody else's hot rookie by bringing their own rookie up ahead of their own belief that the kid can help their team. That said, particularly given Devers' struggles and Eldridge faring well in Triple-A, I don't think it will be too long before we see the kid.

Rob A

1:09

What’s the case for continuing to roll out Roki Sasaki? He doesn’t look like a viable major league starter at the moment. Is this their development program for him? If so, that seems like another way the Dodgers are operating on another plane from everyone else.

Jay Jaffe

1:11

The case is that it's early in the season, he's healthy, the team is off to a strong start, and there's no healthy alternative pressing his way into the rotation. If nothing else changes before Snell is ready in (knock on wood) mid-May, that may be a decision point for Sasaki, though as I noted in the Díaz piece, Sheehan hasn't pitched well either and could wind up in the bullpen (or the minors for that matter).

Sid the Astros Kid

1:12

Another Astros comment! Thoughts on us retooling/rebuilding potentially? As much as I don't like that idea, I imagine Pena/Paredes/Hunter/Walker (assuming his performance holds) would all get fat prospect hauls. Crane doesn't seem willing to go into the tax for this group we have somewhat understandably, so we're kinda just watching our talented guys get older unnecessarily.

Jay Jaffe

1:14

Since their rise under Jeff Luhnow, we have yet to see the Astros take a step off the gas for retooling, so I'm skeptical they're going to blow it up. I think they're more likely to shake things up and wring more from the current roster given that both Joe Espada and Dana Brown are in the final year of their contracts

Kevin

1:15

With Arenado's horrid start to 2026 and clear decline since his resurgent 2022, am I crazy for thinking he isn't a HOF if this is the end of productivity for him? Especially with 3B historically being harder to get inducted, and possibly being overshadowed by Ramirez and Machado if they all retire within a few years of each other.

Jay Jaffe

1:19

I think that with 10 Gold Gloves and his other accolades, he's probably fine from a Hall standpoint, just maybe not the first-ballot automatic choice he looked like just a couple of years ago. With the elections of Beltré, Rolen, Chipper, Edgar, and Dick Allen within the past eight years, third base isn't as maddeningly incomplete as it once was, and there's gonna be room for all three of the aging stars at the position.

STiVo

1:19

I just messed with the cool new Baseball Sim tool in the FG Lab. I had the O's projected team from today's game play itself, except I mirror-reversed the batting order (1 swaps with 9; 2 swaps with 8; etc.). The projected normal lineup scored 4.34 runs per game vs. 3.98 for the tweaked lineup. Neat.

Jay Jaffe

1:20

I haven't had a chance to play around with it yet — I'm nervous as hell about the time-sink it could become — but it looks like fun. The link is here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-lab-a-baseball-simulator/

JROD Squad

1:21

With the Mets hogging the attention, Lets not forget that the Phillies are also having an incredible breakdown, and the Braves have been the benefactors of this collapse in the NL East landscape. It's an interesting reversal of what happened last year.

Jay Jaffe

1:22

It's certainly keeping things interesting in that division. I wonder if the impending return of Zack Wheeler gives them a psychological lift.

20longyears

1:24

Because April, the Pirates currently have 3 of the 15 most valuable pitchers in the National League by WAR, and none of them are named Paul. At season's end, the Pirates will have _____ of the top 15 NL starters.

Jay Jaffe

1:26

I'll guess 2: Skenes and either Ashcraft or Keller but not both

Dos Muncys

1:27

What do you make of the Imai situation? Is "tired arm" designation a better way to say the dreaded "personal"?

Jay Jaffe

1:30

Tired arm isn't uncommon at this stage of the season but it sounds like that's only one of several factors. I don't know exactly what's going on there but it does sound like a significant bummer — as even a week abroad reminded me, it's hard being someplace where you don't speak the language and where routines are different. I do think some of the blame for this falls on the Astros for not having a stronger support network in place to help Imai's acclimation.

Rob A

1:30

Agree with your summation of the Cape Cod League attractions but would add as a West Coaster who did that trip last year, and loved it, we combined it with a game at Fenway, one at Worcester, and HOF induction weekend in Cooperstown.

Aaron

1:30

Speaking of 3B HOF, are you a Ken Boyer guy?

Jay Jaffe

1:32

in the abstract, definitely. On a crowded ballot, it's a tougher question. I think I had Dick Allen, Vic Harris, and John Donaldson all ahead of him on the 2025 Classic one.

Jeremy

1:33

Wheeler's been pitching like a 5th starter (at best) in his rehab outings. Velocity down significantly from pre-injury. So I guess my question is: are the Phillies toast if their rotation is anything close to what it currently appears to be (Sanchez, Luzardo, and a bunch of 5th starters)?

Jay Jaffe

1:35

I'd hesitate to draw strong conclusions on rehab results, but typically any team with three starters continuing to carry an ERA above 5.00 is gonna be toast

Sal's Mom

1:36

How impressive is Cincinnati's start considering they're without their top 2 starters?

Jay Jaffe

1:36

It's impressive, but they're 15-8 while being outscored by three runs so ... hold onto your butts.

Asher

1:36

Do you think Randy Vasquez's transformation (more velo on the fastball, big jump in his K rate) will last?

Jay Jaffe

1:37

I don't know, but the numbers do jump out, so it's worth a closer look for sure.

Ok folks, i've got to go. Thanks so much for stopping by!

Connecting…

Your current subscriptions

None

E-mail Address	Chat Owner	Status	Remove

Enter your email address to be notified when Jay Jaffe hosts a chat