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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/22/22
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AvatarJay Jaffe
2:00
Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my Friday chat — my first solo chat of the 2022 regular season!
2:01
First, some housekeeping: i've got a big piece today about this week's rash of no-hit bids and their connection to the MLB-wide drop in offense. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/welcome-to-hitless-baseball/
2:02
2:03
I will cover this early next week, but for the moment it's worth sharing that I confirmed with the Hall that yes, the four candidates who aged off this year's ballot — Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, and Sosa — will be eligible for the 2023 Contemporary Players ballot.
2:05
Ok, on with the show
Joe
2:05
Is the 3,000-hit player extinct after Miggy Cabrera?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:06
Probably not, but there is going to be a lull for awhile unless 39-year-old Robinson Cano, who has 2,629 hits, discovers the fountain of — wait, you know what, that's a bad metaphor.
2:08
When Dan Szymborski looked at this last September, the next-highest player in terms of odds of getting to 3K wasn't Cano but Jose Altuve (34%), followed by Freddie Freeman (28%). Fernando Tatis Jr. (20%) and Juan Soto (18%). Altuve and Tatis are currently on the IL, but the field is large enough that it's likely we'll see somebody get there, if not very soon https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-3000-hit-club-is-closed-for-maintenanc...
2:09
"After Cabrera accomplishes the goal next year, ZiPS only projects 1-2 currently active players to finish their career with 3,000 hits (1.6 to be exact). Over the next 12-15 years or so, only three players are currently on what I’d call a reasonable approach pattern."
Guille
2:09
How dope is all the feats Ohtani can do? The other day I was just thinking "I bet no pitcher ever got on base two times before throwing a pitch in a game". Do you think there's a chance we get a second Ohtani ever?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:12
Ha, it's funny but that first-of-its-kind feat — which really owed more to his teammates, obviously – was quickly obscured by the fact that he was one of those pitchers with a no-hit bid through five and in fact a perfect game bid through five.

He is utterly amazing, and so long as the Angels have both him and Trout in the lineup — the latter is supposed to return from his hand-HBP tonight — they've got a fighting chance of doing it again, though it's probably pretty rare for a single team to bat around in the first inning 2x in one year.
Dungeon Master
2:12
Jay! What are the practical implications of the era committee restructuring announced by the HOF this morning?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:14
More than I have had time to digest but: this doesn't help Bonds and Clemens, who will get voted upon with less frequency (3x per decade instead of 4x); it accelerates re-consideration of pre-1970 candidates (including Dick Allen and Negro Leagues players); it thankfully removes managers and executives from crowding out players.
2:15
My hunch is that it will greatly reduce the flow of Era Committee honorees and lead to another corrective reorganization
The guy who asks the lunch question
2:15
What's for lunch?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:16
I had a green-and-grains bowl with grilled chicken from Cava, a local Mediterranean place. Tasty and reasonably healthy but also overpriced.
Paul M
2:16
The Yankees, White Sox, Red Sox, and Astros have all gotten off to poor offensive starts, with their team OPS+ sitting at 93, 82, 88, and 91 early into the season.  How concerned should fans of each of those teams be?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:20
Two weeks is pretty silly to get too worked up about, especially when these teams are all within one game of .500. That said, the reduced carry of the 2022 baseball could again have very real consequences for the Yankees, given their tendency to be built for home run dependence.
B'Ryce Hammer's Luscious Locks
2:20
Miggy getting IBB'd at 2,999 is such a baseball thing.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:22
Removing the milestone aspect from it, in the context of the game situation, it wasn't entirely nonsensical, but Miggy ain't That Guy anymore, where you walk him to avoid big damage, and it's generally a bad idea to walk the bases loaded. Ben Clemens dug in on the decision https://blogs.fangraphs.com/two-managerial-decisions-and-another-bad-i...
Guest
2:22
what kinds of changes are being considered to the positional adjustments in WAR?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:23
While i was consulted with regards to the fWAR change in UZR (see https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/), I have not been in on the positional adjustment conversation, as far as I can recall. I think Ben Clemens and Dan Szymborski know much more about this than I do. I wouldn't expect anything to happen overnight though.
@RationalMLBFan
2:24
Since arbitration will happen during the season, what salary are players getting paid? For example, is Aaron Judge being paid $10.175 million (same as 2021) until the salary is decided, then he gets retroactive pay to the beginning of the season? And what happens to players whom teams might release if the players win their case? In the past, a player released during spring training was due only part of their salary, but that's obviously passed.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:26
my understanding is that the players are getting paid at a rate equivalent to the team's filing figure ($17 million). From The Athletic's Linsey Adler:

...players who may head to an arbitration hearing will be paid at the number the club filed at until the contract situation is resolved, with backpay and interest coming to the player if a new agreement is reached or the arbitrator sides with the player. In this case, Judge will be paid as if he will make $17 million this year until this issue is resolved.
Brad NJ
2:27
Jay, It seems like offense is still down, half my fantasy team players are batting under .200, is there talk in the industry about what is going on, or #April?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:27
read today's piece linked up top
2:28
offense is down. this year's .231 batting average is lower than 1968, the Year of the Pitcher. This combination of scoring and slugging percentage hasn't been seen since 1981
henryv
2:28
With the changes in the way defensive WAR if calculated, are there any "knock on" effects to pitcher valuations?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:31
probably not, unless we're undertaking a more extensive overhaul to our version of WAR. We'll still be allocating 1,000 WAR per year across a 30-team season, equivalent to a .294 win% for replacement level, with a 57% position player/43% pitcher split
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
2:31
It looks like thanks to the Jon Bois documentary, Dave Stieb is the new Hall cause célèbre.  Will this renewed candidacy be as fun as the ones for Edgar and Larry Walker?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:32
Alas, the Dave Stieb Train might have been derailed by today's announcement. he's now competing for space with Bonds, Clemens, et al
Chase
2:32
What do you like about the current era of pitching?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:34
I can't say I know a ton about it or have developed the vocabulary to write about it extensively — my Andrew Heaney piece was a learning experience (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-sweeping-success-of-the-overhauled-and...) — but I think pitch design is fascinating. The concept of seam-shifted wake, and the technology available that can provide instant feedback and help a pitcher and his coach optimize the way they throw a baseball is fascinating.
2:35
And I do like that there's more than one route to success for a pitcher
Jackson Ingram
2:35
On a scale of 1-10 how worrying are Bobby Witt Jr's early struggles. 10 being very worrying.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:37
maybe a 4? he has yet to barrel a single batted ball and is striking out 30% of the time, but right now the entire league is struggling to hit, and some of his struggles aren't just his.
Brad NJ
2:37
everyone loves spects and criticizes teams for supposedly playing the service time game, but look at Bobby witt Jr.  consensus top 2 spect and Julio Rodriguez consensus top 3 spect, both struggling horribly. Would't they have been better off starting the year in AAA, hitting .350 gaining confidence and coming up end of May/early June?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:39
While I get what you're saying I also think it's better for the health of the game if teams play prospects when they're ready, and the general consensus among prospect experts is that these guys are ready.

Rodriguez has gotten screwed by the umps on an inordinate percentage of called strikes https://blogs.fangraphs.com/somebody-save-julio-rodriguez/
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