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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/22/22
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Homer
2:39
Hey brother, interested if you could share an opinion on the following?  Looking to drop Ohtani into a SP slot full time on my squad, replacing either Alex Wood, or Jameson Taillon.  I'd move Schwarber into his OF spot, and pick up either Mancini or Belt to ride out 1B.
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:40
I'm not the fantasy guy here, haven't played in over 10 years, and don't wish to elicit a ton of fantasy questions but this one seems like a no-brainer sequence: but i'd say yes to Ohtani, drop Taillon, and add Belt.
Andrew
2:41
Hi, Jay, thanks for all of your work. Your HOF pieces are must-read for me during the offseason. My question is about Mookie Betts. Last year you wrote that there was something "unmistakenly off about Betts." He's off to another (very) slow start this year; do you think we'll ever see him return to the player he was from 2015-2021?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:42
Betts dealt with a bone spur in his hip last year, among other injuries, and he didn't have surgery to correct it. I wonder if it's a factor now or if there's another health-related issue. I'm not ready to write off anybody over two bad weeks.
James B.
2:42
Thanks immensely for taking the time to chat with us today, Jay. It's understandable that teams can be more patient with slow starters given the expanded April rosters – but are some of these strugglers (rookies, in particular) in for a cold splash of water come May 1? Or can we expect teams to continue to preach patience given the extenuating circumstances brought about by a shortened spring?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:44
Very good point regarding May 1 — that's the last day before rosters will be trimmed to 26 players. If you're wondering about the struggles of a Witt or a Rodriguez, that may be a point when teams take a harder look at the benefits and costs of keeping a slow starter up, particularly if the team is also failing to meet expectations.
Brad NJ
2:45
All offseason talk about players not getting paid, but then we see Miggy this week in the highlight, he has been getting paid $20M a year for the last 5 years, and combined those five years has negative WAR, shouldnt that be talked about?  How about Cano, Ellsbury, Josh Hamilton, what about the contracts like that? why do we only talk about the players who are supposedly underpaid before free agency, what about the players who are overpaid, no one talks about them giving money back or someone like Miggy who should have retired 4 years ago......
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:45
There has been no shortage of discussion of the overpaid players, and even those guys spent the first and often the most productive legs of their careers being drastically underpaid.
2:46
I do hear you about the Cabrera situation but my lord, anybody could have seen that extension, which was issued in March 2014, two years before it took effect, would be a bad idea
Adell staying up?
2:48
If Trout gets healthy, is Adell going to get sent down to AAA for everyday at bats? He seems to be #4 in the Angels OF rotation, and he really shouldn't be a bench player in MLB, right?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:51
If everybody is healthy I expect them to roll with a Marsh/Ward-Trout-Adell outfield most often
Homer
2:53
Bryant off to a slow start in COL, Arrenado clearly clicking.  Still think they're about even ROS?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:53
I get that the power hasn't fully manifested itself yet but is .349/.388/.442 (124 wRC+) a slow start? Only relative to a guy with a 284 wRC+ (Arenado) I guess
2:54
Our projections liked Arenado more than Bryant at the outset of the season, and two weeks shouldn't have changed that much
henryv
2:56
How many pitchers who retired in 2015-2022 are likely to make the Hall? Is this likely to be a nadir of starting pitchers making the hall for a while until Kershaw, Greinke, Scherzer, and Verlander retire?
AvatarJay Jaffe
2:58
The only one who seems to have a solid chance until that quartet hits the ballot is CC Sabathia, and that is a worrisome situation.
Wade Boggs
3:00
Every time I hear 3,000 hits, all I can think about is that 80mph meatball that got served up to Jeter so he could hit a HR on his 3,000th...
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:00
you're nobody to talk
Way2early
3:00
What do you think Ohtani’s HoF odds realistically are? Arguably the threshold for 2 way players is nonexistent. If he exists as an all star caliber player for 5-7 more years I would vote him in
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:02
realistically if he lasts another five seasons while pitching and hitting at a high level he's going into Cooperstown. I don't think the actual numbers will matter as much as the proof-in-concept success
Frank Thomas the Tank Engine
3:03
Best ballpark food that is not a hot dog, peanuts, or nachos?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:04
tacos or BBQ at Petco Park, in my experience
3:05
they don't sell it anymore at Yankee Stadium but i used to love the Minute Made Frozen Lemonade, That stuff is great on a hot summer day
Joe
3:05
Another website published an article earlier this week about Anthony Rizzo bunting against the shift. Though largely speculative and anecdotal, the lede was that teams might start coaching players to hit to the opposite field.  Realistic hope?  I get the objective argument both for the shift and for pull hitting/launch angle, but it's viscerally unpleasant
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:06
With the demise of the shift somewhere on the horizon even before this season began, I don't think you're going to see a wholesale change in philosophy
We're not going to see bunts galore
ben simmons’ jumper
3:06
did you see that Tony La Russa, blessed with what is on paper one of the deepest lineups in baseball, had leury garcia hit 3rd (!) not once but two games in a row
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:07
LOL no, i missed that. what in the world?
Josh R
3:07
Haven't seen anyone mention what kind of advantage the Blue Jays might have at home if every team comes to Toronto missing 3-5 players. Thoughts?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:10
It's pretty clear that every team is not going to be missing 3-5 players. A couple weeks back i figured it might be a two-win swing for the Jays, maybe more like one win, but the recent report that the Yankees appear to have had their shots (https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33768891/new-york-yankees-upcoming...) probably lessens that
Pat
3:10
On the committees- I also think having the non-player committee will lead to more non-players getting elected. I could care less about umpires, but, there seems to be a backlog of managers that are probably deserving from a historical perspective. Seeing guys like Bochy, Leyeland, Pinella, etc..& then Tito & Dusty down the line, get their due is a good thing ,IMO.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
yes, this is one of the better aspects of the change. I'm fine with more managers getting in (though I'm not big on Piniella being near the front of the line, as entertaining as he was). I don't think another commissioner should ever go in, and i'd be fine if no other owners ever made it, too
Ross
3:12
Another bad start to the year for Kelenic. How long before it is time to accept he is just a bust in terms of his prospect pedigree?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:12
He's 22.
3:13
he's 22 and has begun his MLB career under very strange circumstances. it would be malpractice to give up on him so long as he at least has minor league options remaining.
Josh
3:14
Did MLB go too far with the ball change and humidor? Homeruns are way down so far.
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:14
it's very tough to untangle the humidor effect from the softer baseball that was introduced last year, but cumulatively it's not looking great right now.
Alex C
3:14
How would you evaluate the Cano for Kelenic trade now that Kelenic looks like a bust?
AvatarJay Jaffe
3:16
Cano is a pretty huge bust, too. In two years he'll be out of the league and at worst, the Mariners will still be seeing what they have in Kelenic. In the words of my former colleague Kevin Goldstein, settle down.
Guest
3:16
maybe already answered but do you think that part of the pitching dominance in the past couple years is driven by a technological disparity between pitching and hitting training? seems like pitch shape and velocity training is much more scientific than 10 years ago while the big innovation in hitting is "try to hit it in the air more"
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