JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/22/22

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Jay Jaffe

3:18

The increase in hitting science might be less apparent today than on the pitching side but the with the increased understanding of biomechanics and the usage of video and the more advanced pitching machines, the gap isn't THAT wide.

nerd

3:21

why don’t we see pitchers moved to 3rd or 1st base in between batters to keep them in the lineup anymore? did I miss a rule change or memo about this technique?

Jay Jaffe

3:22

Because the payoff generally isn't there. Makes more sense to get a fresh arm

Mike

3:22

Jay, is there a case for the Mets to keep Cano after next week or is it time for them to move on?

Jay Jaffe

3:24

For as much as I don't think Cano has a great long-term future in the majors, I don't think his release is necessarily imminent. His xBA and xSLG are much better than his actual numbers, suggesting he's making decent contact. I guess it comes down to who their other options are to replace him

TwinCities

3:24

the Rays twin city plan was shot down by MLB owners, but might an expansion franchise (ie new franchise fee) get approved? Should I buy merch for the San Juan- Montreal future team the Saint-Jean Saints?

Jay Jaffe

3:26

it makes zero sense to presume that a single franchise is going to be able to get two ballparks built for half-season usage, especially now that most municipalities have caught onto the stadium game

Betting

3:26

any chance the breathless promoting of gambling on mlb network and apple tv turn off or transform viewers. I find it gross and wonder what my 7 year old self would have thought

Jay Jaffe

3:26

I hate it, too, and think that yes, it could drive some people away. Or, you know, just produce a very damaging scandal.

Rockn

3:26

Any music recommendations?

Jay Jaffe

3:29

Lately I've been very much enjoying the new Wet Leg, the new Jon Spencer and the HitMakers, recent Superchunk, Fuzz (who were great live last week), the Sparks back catalog (they were amazing live on 3/27 at Town Hall), and the long-awaited Freakons (that's Mekons plus Freakwater) collaboration

Pitch_Out

3:31

There is a great article on Nasty Nestor over in the rotographs side today. Are you personally buying his 2021-2022 results?

Jay Jaffe

3:33

I haven't read Nicklaus Gaut's piece yet (https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/nestor-cortes-is-for-real/) but I was on the Nasty Nestor bandwagon last year (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/nasty-nestor-has-baffled-hitters-and-helpe...). I gather he's on the seam-shifted wake train and so yes, I would take his success seriously

Guest

3:33

Steven Kwan - if forced to comp, more like Ichiro, Wade Boggs, Olerud, Mauer, other?

Jay Jaffe

3:33

i think it's a bad idea to compare a prospect to a Hall of Famer

3:35

there are still very real concerns about Kwan's power but he looks like a good tablesetter who can play center field. Eric Longenhagen recently compared him to Brett Gardner, which makes a lot more sense than imagining he's some kind of Ichiro or Boggs type

Appa Yip Yip

3:35

Remember two years ago when Vladdy was a bust?

Jay Jaffe

3:35

exactly

ProspectNoob

3:36

Chicago Cubs have Schwindel and Wisdom, but it seems like MLB evaluators shade any non-pitching or catching prospects older than 24. Why does Chicago stand out as the exception to the rule here and could other teams follow suit?

Jay Jaffe

3:39

the Cubs, with their sudden teardown and not much immediate help on the horizon from their own system, had the space to give some Quad-A types that they liked some playing time and so far it's panned out to a degree. They've obviously got some smart people working for them

Guest

3:39

Cubs reboot looks like a good start. Do you think Cubs get creative and take on Gleyber or Bohm? Figure now is the time to scoop up down guys and see if they can right the ship.

Jay Jaffe

3:39

Fans may be ready to punt on those guys but I highly doubt that their teams are, especially so long as they're inexpensive

Mike

3:40

How will people view the pandemic shortened 2020 season in the future? If Stanton finished with 590 homers, do people just give him credit for 600 since the shortened 2020 season kept him from reaching it?

Jay Jaffe

3:41

I don't think there's any qualitative difference between 590 and 600 homers when it comes to figuring out a player's spot in history. "Giancarlo Stanton can hit the f'ing s*** out of the ball and did it more than most players for a long career" will be enough to get him into the Hall of Fame whether it's 590 or 600 homers.

(if he sticks around long enough to get there or even to 500)

David

3:41

The usage of “bust” in this chat has been fascinating. Obviously it’s not a new word or phenomenon, but do you think prospects get harsher, quicker judgments now due to a rise in both interest in and awareness of prospects in recent years? It feels like there’s more attention on that side than ever, and it comes with an intensification of expectations.

Jay Jaffe

3:44

I think people have short attention spans, and that the prospect sub-industry isn't great about communicating the range of outcomes. That's something that I know Eric and Kevin have worked very hard to counter. it's worth re-reading this if you haven't https://blogs.fangraphs.com/managing-prospect-expectations/

3:45

I think some of these questions about prospects do come from the fantasy side, too. If Kelenic isn't going to hit this year and you're in a league that redrafts every year, it's fine to label him a bust and move on, but if you're Jerry Dipoto, you're an idiot if you're cutting bait even now.

Mike

3:46

Do the Guardians have enough hitting the rest of the way to contend for the AL Central title?

Jay Jaffe

3:46

I was wondering this myself. I still think there's a significant talent gap between them and the White Sox but Chicago ain't exactly running away with the Central

Guest

3:46

Would you want to be the pitcher who gives up Miggy's 3000th hit? I know I would.

Jay Jaffe

3:47

I could live with it.

Fish

3:47

Does Conforto sign by June 1?

Jay Jaffe

3:48

I really have to wonder about the severity of his shoulder injury (https://nypost.com/2022/03/30/ex-met-michael-confortos-injury-slowing-...)

3:49

if he's healthy and plans to play this year I'd expect a deal soon. if not healthy, i expect he won't sign until after the draft (July 17) and the nullification of the QO-related loss of a draft pick

barney gumble

3:50

hey Jay. where do you think the Yankees (and Gerrit Cole) are at with Gerrit Cole? a guy with his stuff and command can't be this bad, right? but he's been getting clobbered, and "what about that game in Houston??" can't be the counter forever

Jay Jaffe

3:51

My perception is thatI don't think he's done a good job of adjusting to little bumps in the road like the delay on Opening Day, but it also seems that he hasn't been the same pitcher since the sticky stuff crackdown. I do think he's got ample stuff to succeed at a high level but it's not coming together for one reason or another

3:52

folks, I have to call it a day here. Thanks so much for stopping by! We'll do this again soon.

bart

3:52

Jay I have a leaderboards question - I'm trying to find players in the career 100/100 (HR/SB) club since 1999, but when I enter it into the splits leaderboard, no player shows up. Any idea what I'm doing wrong?

Jay Jaffe

3:52

make sure you've got the "career" option instead of the "season" option on the far right

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