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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/25/19
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AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
Those Tigers were kind of viewed as underachievers for not getting back to a second World Series beyond 1984; the 1987 ALCS was a huge upset. I think that had an impact not just on Morris' acceptance by HOF voters but also for Trammell and Whitaker.
D
1:33
Just to clarify, I wasn't suggesting a gun-to-head, though I'm sure it sounded that way. I was saying they do their best to keep him and then deal him if their best isn't good enough. No threat intended.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:33
ok, fair enough. Thanks for the clarification.
brad nj
1:34
Does WAR include quality of SP faced?  I assume this should matter, but not sure how you would adjust for it, but I would think something like a park factor
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:35
To my knowledge, I don't think the FG version does. I know the B-Ref version has an adjustment for pitchers, but I don't believe it has one for hitters.
Jeff M
1:35
What are your thoughts on Trevor Rosenthal? The velocity is there, but he seems as broken as Rick Ankiel.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:38
I'm afraid he's crossed into yips territory, yes. And while that's largely and in many cases entirely psychological, there's a chance that his surgery messed with his proprioception, which in this case is to say his perception of the relative positioning of his body parts during  his delivery. Here's something from Driveline, I'm sure that guy can tell you a lot more https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2014/06/control-problems-mound-alway...
Pat
1:39
Agreed on the 80's Tigers being viewed as disappointing after not being able to follow up 84. What killed them was lack of pitching depth after Morris. Petry got hurt, Wilcox got old, bullpen took a step back. Lineup was still really good, really into the mid 90's.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:40
I think Sparky Anderson was something of a problem as well, in that he got complacent. Maybe another manager and GM could have gotten more out of that core of talent. Collusion, and the departures of Morris and Gibson, certainly had an impact, too.
Guest
1:40
How much does playing for a big market team help a player's HoF case? Say an equal case, but player A played a good portion of their career for the NYY,BOS,LAD vs. Player B who played for a smaller market team.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:43
Ask Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada. Ask Ron Santo. On the other side of the coin, ask Tim Raines and Edgar Martinez.

I think the extent to which market size matters in HOF voting is overrated, as there are so many other factors involved.
Hello
1:44
Worried about Wilson Ramos yet?  Power gone and defense negative for first time ever.  31 year old catchers.....
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:48
While I wouldn't use ~25 games at the start of the season to render a final judgment on any player, and I would certainly be wary of defensive stats at the 25-game mark, I will say that I caught endless shit in this very forum for preferring Grandal to Ramos, in part due defense (including framing) and track record for health. Still, I don't think the latter's start is anything to panic over.
Jung Ho Kang Bang
1:48
How many more years doea Trout have as "The Best Player in tbe Game"?  Who is likely to dethrone him?
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:51
I think that largely depends on his staying healthy. Given that we're getting an up-close look at how fleeting various players' runs at topping Trout can be — and here I'm thinking not only of Harper but also Lindor, Betts and Jose Ramirez — I'n not sure if his successor as best player is even in the majors yet. I suspect it will have to be somebody at a premium defensive position who's augmenting top-shelf offense with elite glovework.
Guest
1:51
This isn't said enough: Thank You for the chat. We appreciate it.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:51
You're very welcome! I enjoy doing this, even if my occasionally curt answers come off as something less than that.
PD
1:52
Frank Tanana - the beta version of Jamie Moyer...
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:54
Not really. Tanana had excellent velocity for his time and was a Cy Young contender, but was overworked — 43 complete games in 1976-77, including 14 straight in the latter season! He figured out how to pitch without his best fastball and stuck around forever, whereas Moyer was a late bloomer.
Tanana and Sabathia have more in common than Tanana and Moyer, I think.
Matt
1:55
Does how quick players decline scare you? We talk about Mike Trout as historic, which he is. But don't cases like A-Rod, Pujols, and Miggy petrify you? We didn't see the decline in any of them happening THIS quickly. BUT BAM.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:55
the drugs may have helped but A-Rod didn't have a sub-100 wRC+ until his age-40 season.
Sanford
1:56
RE: Guys who could dethrone Trout, it's gotta be Acuña, right? I feel as though the current top tier of players, which includes those you mentioned (Lindor, Betts, Ramirez) are all already in their peaks--if they were to surpass Trout, either in terms of talent and/or production, they most likely would have done so by now. Acuña's ceiling seems to be the most unknown, which might give him the best shot at reaching Trout's level.
AvatarJay Jaffe
1:57
If I had to bet on current MLBers to dethrone Trout, they might be Acuña and Tatis Jr., but the former has already been moved to LF primarily, so I wonder about his long-term outlook defensively.
1:58
So many great questions but not enough time! Thanks for stopping by today. We'll do it again next week...
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