JotCast | Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat

Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat - 4/26/18

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Jay Jaffe

12:00

Good morning or afternoon folks, wherever you may be, and welcome to another edition of my Thursday chat.

Corey

12:01

Aaron Judge is not an 21 year old phenom, but he still has just 710 ML ABs and he’s got an wRC+ north of 200 again. Are we taking his greatness for granted already?

Jay Jaffe

12:03

I think there's the danger of that happening in some quarters, particularly given an understandable desire to resist the volume of coverage and hype that comes with success as a Yankee. But with his shoulder healed, he's certainly showing again that last year wasn't entirely a fluke.

Murdoc

12:04

Favorite run or lift to lap at Snowbird?

Jay Jaffe

12:06

I've skied at Snowbird for 99% of my time in the sport. My favorite run is off the tram, down Upper Primrose Path and into the lower Cirque and then Anderson's Hill. Man, it's been 3 years since I've gotten to do that because of the book and the baby. I miss skiing.

12:06

What is the highest probability you would give to a rookie of making the Hall of Fame? Over under 5%?

Jay Jaffe

12:08

It depends upon the rookie. An overall number one prospect who's reaching the majors for good at 20 years old and then succeeding, I might say 5-10%. That's just off the top of my head; guys who can stick at that age are by far the best HOF prospects.

Dexy's Midnight Fowlers

12:09

Is Sir Didi's world-beating performance to date sustainable? Did we wildly underestimate his ceiling?

Jay Jaffe

12:11

the power is real, the question is the extent to which the improved plate discipline sticks. I do think he's been underestimated to this point in his career, and I'm guilty of that too, but this would seem to be a pretty extreme breakout whose true dimensions will take some time to reveal themselves

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe

12:11

If Mike Soroka had the career outcome of Mike Sirotka, would the Braves be disappointed?

Jay Jaffe

12:13

I reflexively keep checking B-Ref to see if the former is the son of the latter, but the answer there is still no. A Sirotka-like career, with some time to establish himself and then two very good seasons followed by disappearance due to major shoulder injury, would be a sad tale.

Dexy's Midnight Fowlers

12:15

Joey Votto: slump over? To the extent that you can even call it a slump-- he's already 3rd in xwOBA.

Jay Jaffe

12:15

He's certainly looked much more Votto-like since I published this https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-reds-slump-has-extended-to-joey-vo... (you're welcome, Joey)

Corey Seager

12:16

What is wrong with me? Am I just slumping or or what?

Jay Jaffe

12:16

You are saddled with the burden of being my NL MVP pick. I apologize and hope that somebody with a more spiritual bent is praying for your well-being.

12:17

How far back would the Nats have to be to toy with the idea of trading Bryce at the deadline? What would a theoretical return look like?

Jay Jaffe

12:18

They would have to be in danger of relegation to Harrisburg to do that. Not happening, I don't think, but ask me again in late June.

tyler

12:18

Pete Rose is 315 all time in Wrc+ tied with greats like Sal Bando, Roy Sievers, Gary Matthews. Why do we consider him such a great hitter again?

Jay Jaffe

12:21

Rose was an incredible table-setter who provided 24 years of a .375 OPB in a league where .331 was the park-adjusted average, and he could play a number of positions very well. He overstayed his welcome, which takes some of the shine off his batting stats, and ultimately he disgraced the game, but he could f'ing play up until about age 40.

Dirk Diggler

12:21

On a scale from 1-10 how concerned are you about Sonny Gray?

Jay Jaffe

12:22

8. He's a mess right now.

Jon

12:22

Kenta Maeda-- with all those incentives in his deal for IP, what are the chances he's more resistant to leaving rotation than he was last year? And if he sticks, can he hold at or near current K%?

Jay Jaffe

12:25

I'm not convinced he can sustain it but with a 14.4 % swinging strike rate and a 33.7% K rate, I'm impressed thus far. Might be worth a closer look if he's still doing this in a few more starts.

I do think his agent and the Dodgers should discuss restructuring his deal so as to make a bullpen path palatable and lucrative, at least as an alternative — just to say, you're covered just fine if we believe this is in the best interests of the team.

Henry Rowengartner

12:25

What would your walk-up song be?

Jay Jaffe

12:27

"Uncontrollable Urge" by Devo has long been my choice, and while I didn't get to use it as at-bat music, I did use it when throwing out a first pitch at an El Paso Chihuahuas game last August. Video evidence of this exists https://cooperstowncasebook.com/2017/09/10/the-trip-to-texas/

Henry Rowengartner

12:27

Verlander on the Astros has been an absolute beast. At 35, can he do this for the whole season?

Jay Jaffe

12:29

not to the extent of maintaining a 1.36 ERA, but I do think he's capable of another Cy Young-worthy season given that he did have one as recently as 2016.

Flip

12:30

Bryce Harper has a .211 BABIP. Any thoughts why?

Jay Jaffe

12:31

Because it's April? In the absence of actual investigation, I'll go with that

Bobby B.

12:31

Jedd Gyorko is a good baseball player. Why don't the Cardinals let him play more baseball?

Jay Jaffe

12:33

I know he's been dealing with a hamstring injury and assume that the team knows more about it than I do. But yeah, you'd figure he'd have more than 21 PA by now

Johnny Cueto

12:34

Do you believe in me? Am I great again?

Jay Jaffe

12:35

I never stopped believing in you, Johnny, but I hope you're not pitching on a bum ankle.

Johnny

12:35

You know, not to get all sentimental right now but the late Kevin Towers was laughed at when he traded top pitching prospect Trevor Bauer for Didi Gregorius those many years ago. The Internet made a mockery of KT calling Didi potentially special, having a Jeter-like quality. I guess my point is that people like KT will and should be missed. They bring an insight that is inspired.

Jay Jaffe

12:38

Yes, I noted Towers' assessment when I wrote about Didi https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/didi-gregorius-steals-the-spotlight/, and I'm somebody who rolled my eyes at the time. He's been vindicated on that one, for sure, and the sad occasion of his passing brought out an entire industry that testified to his baseball smarts.

Moltar

12:39

If Matz & Wheeler & Harvey can't last int he rotation, where do the Mets turn? Vargas is coming for one of those spots, but after that, is it Lugo back from the 'pen? Then what? Are they in the market for SPs around the deadline?

Jay Jaffe

12:42

Lugo, and possibly Gsellman... sooner or later it may be time to Bring Back Bartolo. Hell, call R.A. Dickey, too. But yeah i think they'll be in the market for an arm come July 31

Sean

12:42

How much does Patrick Corbin look like Randy Johnson right now?

Jay Jaffe

12:43

He's shorter, has a better haircut and no viral videos of exploding a bird. I'm not sure I see the resemblance.

Mounds Guy

12:43

I'm in a full dynasty league. Do you like Moncada or Bellinger more long term?

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